BaseballHQ Predicts 2013 Cardinals Pitchers
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BaseballHQ Predicts 2013 Cardinals Pitchers

Using BaseballHQ's projections to consider year-to-year performance of the St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for 2013 offers a mixed bag. Conclusion of a two-part series.

In Part one of this two-part annual series, we looked at the projections for the hitters expected to play the front-line roles on the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals using data from Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ's Baseball Forecaster.

Please see the earlier article for all the disclaimers about from where the data came and how it should be used. Suffice it to say that the Forecaster has been the leading publication of its kind for the last quarter of a century for good reason.

The $25.95 is well spent, and for that price you get a downloadable version, too. Buy the Forecaster here.

2013 Projections vs. 2012 Actuals and 2012 Projections - St. Louis Cardinals Pitching

Proj Act Proj Proj Act Proj Proj Act Proj
IP IP IP W W W Sv Sv Sv
Year 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 13
Boggs 68 73 58 3 4 3 3 2 0
CCarpenter 203 17 145 13 0 7 0 0 0
Choate 39 44 0 1 1 0
Garcia 189 137 174 14 8 11 0 0 0
Kelly 179 102 7 7 0 0
Lynn 176 145 18 13 0 0
Miller* 150 102 12 9 0 0
Motte 73 72 70 5 4 4 35 42 40
Mujica 65 68 0 3 2 2
Rosenthal* 132 102 8 5 0 0
Rzepczynski 58 47 58 3 1 2 0 0 0
Salas 58 59 44 3 1 2 23 0 0
Wainwright 160 199 199 13 14 16 0 0 0
Westbrook 189 175 189 10 13 12 0 0 0
Departed
Lohse 189 211 189 12 16 13 0 0 0
* incls MiLB
Proj Act Proj Proj Act Proj Proj Act Proj
ERA ERA ERA WHP WHP WHP K K K
Year 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 13
Boggs 3.97 2.21 3.50 1.46 1.05 1.27 53 58 45
CCarpenter 3.59 3.71 3.76 1.26 1.12 1.22 159 12 109
Choate 3.03 3.55 1.22 1.36 38 39
Garcia 3.44 4.07 3.72 1.29 1.34 1.32 148 113 142
Kelly 3.34 4.07 1.40 1.44 112 69
Lynn 3.78 3.88 1.32 1.35 180 131
Miller 4.54 4.01 1.37 1.25 153 98
Motte 3.02 2.75 2.63 1.14 0.92 1.00 71 86 78
Mujica 3.03 3.13 1.04 1.04 65 68
Rosenthal* 3.03 3.92 1.09 1.16 114 95
Rzep. 3.66 4.24 3.69 1.32 1.35 1.33 55 33 48
Salas 3.05 4.30 3.64 1.13 1.41 1.23 55 60 43
Wainwright 3.04 3.94 3.31 1.18 1.25 1.18 128 184 178
Westbrook 4.24 3.97 4.12 1.41 1.39 1.40 111 106 111
Departed
Lohse 4.33 2.86 3.67 1.39 1.09 1.23 117 143 114

Innings. The Forecaster is playing it down the middle in terms of innings workload. Adam Wainwright and Jake Westbrook will push 200 innings, with Jaime Garcia a seemingly-optimistic 175. Chris Carpenter and Lance Lynn share the next tier at 145 frames while the three 2012 rookies, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal all slotted at about 100.

Wins. In no surprise, Wainwright is penciled in as the win leader, but only with 16. Other double-digit winners expected include Lynn, Westbrook and Garcia. Miller falls just short at nine, which would have to be considered pretty spectacular given his innings projection. Carp and Kelly are at seven each. In other words, wins are spread among many.

Saves. In an area of expected stability, Jason Motte should reprieve his 40-plus save season, with Edward Mujica potentially picking up a few crumbs.

ERA. Those expected to see considerably higher ERAs include Mitchell Boggs, Randy Choate, Kelly and Rosenthal. Lower ERAs may come from Garcia, Miller and Wainwright as well as bouncebacks from Marc Rzepczynski and Fernando Salas. Still, with Westbrook's ERA highest at 4.12, the overall story is good in arguably the most important pitching category.

WHIP. A majority of the staff is expected to allow slightly more baserunners in 2013. Boggs is expected to have the biggest negative change, with Choate and Carpenter also considerably worse. Those forecasted to improve include Miller, Salas and Wainwright. Motte continues to be the stingiest on the club in terms of allowing baserunners.

Strikeouts. Though the Cardinals were not a strikeout team in the first place, there is expected to be erosion across the board in 2013. Garcia and Carpenter may be the only notable exceptions, and their increases would be dependant on the shaky assumption of better health than in 2012.

The departed. Not surprisingly, Kyle Lohse is expected to return to a more normal season for him in 2013, though his ultimate destination remains unknown.

In closing

While the hitting projections could cause concern, the numbers for the 2013 Cardinals pitchers are a mixed bag, but overall positive. With the exception of Mitchell Boggs, the bullpen looks fine, while the rotation offers a number of solid performers with few standouts.

For graciously sharing their data as they do each year at this time, thank you again to Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ.com.

Part one: "BaseballHQ Predicts 2013 Cardinals Hitters"



Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnationblog.com. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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