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| Chris Monter's Tourney Outlook | ||||
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National college basketball expert Chris Monter's CollegeBasketballNews.com is moving to TheInsiders.com network. Here is Monter's look at the first 64 games of the tournament. | ||||
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NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS SOUTH REGION Duke (29-3), the defending national champions, was the preseason choice to repeat and despite a few hiccups, have to be considered one of the top two or three favorite to cut down the nets in Atlanta on April 1st. They were dominant in the ACC Tournament, winning the championship game by 30 points over North Carolina State and moved up as College Basketball News’ #1 team with losses by Kansas and Maryland. The Blue Devils have perhaps the country’s top starting five with three players ranking among the ACC’s top five in scoring. Jason Williams was College Basketball News’ Player of the Year and Mike Dunleavy joined him on College Basketball News’ All-American first team. Carlos Boozer was a third team All-American. However, the Blue Devils are more than just their three standouts. Guard Dahntay Jones, Chris Duhon and Daniel Ewing are all capable of posting big numbers and would shine, if there was not so much talent on the roster. Jones is an outstanding defender and Duhon’s ability to run the team allows Williams to play the shooting guard spot. The Blue Devils are a bit thin after their top six top six and the team does not have much inside muscle. Reserve frontcourt players Matt Christensen, Nick Horvath and Casey Sanders combined for just 4.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The Blue Devils looked poised to make another run at a national title. Winthrop (19-11) won their fourth straight Big South Conference Tournament with an easy 70-48 win over High Point. The Eagles lost in the play-in game last season, falling to Northwestern State 71-67. This was considered head coach’s Gregg Marshall’s best team. They were 4-8 at one time, but won 15 of their last 18 games. 6-6 senior Greg Lewis played in just six games last season before a foot injury forced him to redshirt. He bounced back to win Big South Player of the Year honors. Lewis led the conference in rebounding and was fourth in scoring. The Eagles are a small team with no starter over 6-6. They are just ranked 217 in the RPI and barely avoided the play-in game. The Eagles are 0-3 in the NCAA Tournament. Make that 0-4. CBN PREDICTION: Duke by 30 Notre Dame (20-10) is showing observers that they play more than football in South Bend (although Irish bashers could argue that they did not play much football this season, either). Head coach Mike Brey has led the Irish to back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances. They returned to the tournament last season for the first time since 1990. Notre Dame has a strong starting five with four double figure scorers. Ryan Humphrey led the conference in rebounding and was sixth in scoring with 19 points per game. Teams can’t afford to double team Humphrey as the Irish have three excellent outside threats in David Graves, Matt Carroll and Big East Rookie of the Year Chris Thomas. Thomas led the Big East in assists and showed that he is one of the country’s top point guards. Notre Dame does not have a great bench and will rely heavily on their starters. Charlotte (18-11) had a solid season, especially after losing leading scorer Rodney White, who left after a College Basketball News’ All-Freshman season to become the ninth overall pick in the NBA Draft. Outside shooter Jobey Thomas picked up the scoring load. He entered the season already holding the Conference USA’s mark in three-pointers made (236). Thomas has led the conference in that category the past three seasons and he helped the 49ers finish among the NCAA leaders in three-pointers made as a team. Backcourt mate Demon Brown has excellent quickness, but needs to be more consistent. The 49ers have a solid starting five, but their bench provides just 12.6 points per game. The 49ers could win one game, but it is tough to envision them making a long run, unless they are on fire from beyond the arc. CBN PREDICTION: Notre Dame by 5 Indiana (20-11) lost a heartbreaker, falling 62-60 to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers are hoping to get the NCAA tournament monkey off their back. They were upset by Kent State in the first round, getting knocked out early for the second straight season, despite being a fourth seed in the NCAA Tournament, their best seeding since 1993. Indiana is led by College Basketball News’ Big Ten Player of the Year Jared Jeffries. He is one of the most versatile players in the country and he paced the Hoosiers in scoring and rebounding. Jeffries is also an outstanding defender. Tom Coverdale is a fiery leader with good outside shooting range. He is one of three outstanding three point threats for Indiana along with Dane Fife and Kyle Hornsby. Fife never lived up to the expectations that fans had for the former McDonald’s All-American, but he is a hard worker and was named Big Ten co-Defensive Player of the Year. The Hoosiers are a thin team that does not have players listed at more than 220 pounds, so rebounding and defense against more physical teams are a concern. Former walk-on Jared Odle has come on strong to help in the frontcourt with eight double figures games in the final nine contests. The Hoosiers rely heavily on the perimeter shot, by making 40.4% from beyond the arc. If they are hot from the perimeter, they could be a surprise. If not, it could be “one and done” again. Utah (21-8) lost to UNLV 76-70 in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals, but their RPI and schedule got them into the NCAA Tournament. They started the season 3-3, but won 13 straight games, before going 5-5 in their final ten contests. What made their winning streak even more unlikely was season-ending injury to leading scorer and rebounder Chris Burgess after just eleven games. The Utes are led by Mountain West Player of the Year Britton Johnsen, who stepped up his game with the injury to Burgess. He averaged 15.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in conference play, while shooting 55.7 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from the 3-point line. Overall, he averaged 13.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game and shot 50.2 percent from the field. Outside shooter Nick Jacobsen and Jeff Johnsen, Britton’s older brother, were third team All-Mountain West selections. Jacobsen was second in the conference in three-pointers made and the Utes had the second, third and fourth leading three-point percentage shooters. They had five players who made 25 or more three-pointers and were eleventh in the nation three-point percentage, shooting 40.5% from beyond the arc. Utah is not a physical team and they do not have a true low post threat. No player on the team even attempted three free throws per game. The Utes are a mediocre rebounding team without Burgess. Point guard Travis Spivey was the only Ute beside Britton Johnsen to grab more than 100 rebounds. Head coach Rick Majerus has shown that he is an excellent tournament coach and he preaches strong defense. The Utes finished tenth in scoring defense (60.1 points per game). Their first round matchup versus Indiana is favorable since they are also an outside shooting team that lacks a top flight inside scorer. Majerus has never lost a first round matchup, making this perhaps the best early contest. CBN PREDICTION: Indiana by 2 USC (22-9) returns three starters from a team that tied a school-record with 24 wins and reached the East Region Finals before losing to eventual national champs Duke. The Trojans lost second round picks Brian Scalabrine and Jeff Trepagnier, but are an experienced squad with three senior starters. Sam Clancy tested the NBA draft waters, but opted to return for his senior season. He led the Trojans in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots for the second straight season and was the only player among the top five in the Pac-10 in scoring and rebounding the past two years. David Bluthenthal is one of the most underrated player in the country. He led the team in three-pointers and was second in rebounding and tied for third in scoring. Brandon Granville, the school’s all-time leader in assists, led the Pac-10 in assists as a sophomore and junior and was second as a senior. Desmon Farmer and freshman Errick Craven give the Trojans’ good athleticism. USC had a thin bench that combined for just 13 points per game. The Trojans have the talent to make it back to the “Sweet 16.” North Carolina Wilmington (22-9) won its second Colonial Athletic Association tournament in three years as they beat Virginia Commonwealth 66-51. It was their third straight title game appearance. The Seahawks lost to number two seed Cincinnati in the 2000 NCAA tournament and made the N.I.T. field last season. They are led by 6-3 junior Brett Blizzard, who has made the All-Colonial first team all three years. He led the conference in three-pointers made, was second in steals and fourth in scoring. The Seahawks rely on the outside shot as they led the conference in three-point shooting (36.8%) and are tough on the defensive end. They allowed teams to score a conference-low 60.8 points per game. They could be a tough first round draw because of their perimeter shooting, but they figure to be “one and done.” CBN PREDICTION: USC by 12 California (22-8) lost their all-time leading scorer in Sean Lampley to graduation, but this year’s squad has a better record, due to a more balanced attack. Lampley was the only double figure scorer last season. However, this year, they have eight players scoring more than six points per game and nine players play between 16.8 and 29.3 minutes per game. They are not a great offensive team, but Ben Braun’s squad makes up for it on the defensive end as they limited teams to a Pac-10 low 63.9 points per game and just 40.5% shooting. They bounced back from a 46-point drubbing to Arizona in the season finale to beat UCLA in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament before losing to the Wildcats in the second round. Their defense could give them a chance to make it to the “Sweet 16.” Pennsylvania (25-6) won the Ivy League title in an unusual playoff over Yale 77-58. The Ivy League is the only conference not to have a postseason tournament, but due to a three-way tie for first place, a playoff was necessary. Penn has won 10 straight games since losing at Yale a month ago. The Quakers had three players finish among the conference’s top seven scorers. They rely heavily on their starting five that all averaged more than 30 minutes per game. No reserve averaged four points per contest. Penn is an excellent shooting team, leading the league in field goal percentage (47.6%) and three-point percentage (40.1%). They are more athletic than the typical Ivy school with 6-8 Ugonna Onyekwe leading the way. Penn could keep it close for a half, but it is unlikely that they get past the first day. CBN PREDICTION: California by 9 Pittsburgh (27-5) finished 7-9 in the Big East last season in head coach Ben Howland’s first season with the Panthers. He had to replace his top two scorers and rebounders in Ricardo Greer and Isaac Hawkins, who accounted for more than 40% of the team’s scoring and rebounding. Most observers picked them to finish sixth in the Big East West division as the Panthers did not return a single double figure scorer. However, they gained confidence against a soft non-conference schedule, but showed that they could win on the road by defeating Ohio State. That win helped them when conference play started as they beat then- #12 Boston College. They bested #10 Syracuse at home by 15 and finished 13-3 in the conference and ranked seventh in the nation. They will return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1993. The Panthers are not loaded with tons of talent, but Howland has got his players to adapt to his three-point shooting offense and tough defensive systems. Point guard Brandin Knight shot just 25.8% from beyond the arc last season, but this year, he is making 37.3% from three-point range. The brother of Memphis Grizzlies guard Brevin, Brandin finished third in the Big East in three-pointers and second in assists. He was College Basketball News’ Big East Player of the Year. Julius Page and Dontanas Zavackas, along with Knight, give the Panthers three outside weapons. The Panthers allowed a conference-low 65.3 points per game last season and they have improved that to just 59.7 points this season. They increased their shooting percentage to 47%, second best in the conference. The Panthers have done a good job of rebounding after losing their two top players on the glass. They were fourth in rebounding, despite not having a single player among the top 18 individually. The Panthers have just one players over 6-8, which could hurt them when it comes to NCAA tournament time where the play becomes more physical. Brandin Knight suffered a knee injury in their overtime loss to Connecticut in the Big East finals. If he is not 100%, it could be “night, night” for the Panthers. Central Connecticut State (27-4) advanced to the Big Dance for the second time on three years with a 78-71 victory over Quinnipiac in the Northeast Conference championship game. This Blue Devil team (not Duke) has the nation’s longest winning streak with 19 straight wins. Central Connecticut State is led by 6-9 senior center Corsley Edwards, who was eighth in scoring, second in rebounding and third in blocked shots in the NEC. The Devils led the NEC in points allowed, rebounding, defensive field goal percentage, rebounding margin and scoring margin. They play a three-guard offense and could have troubles against bigger teams. Their five starters all average around 30 minutes and they only go seven deep, so depth is a question mark. CBN PREDICTION: Pittsburgh by 13 Oklahoma State (23-8) is one of the more experienced teams in the country as they returned all five starters. They started the season 13-0, but the team went into a funk around the anniversary of last year’s tragic plane crash that killed two players. They bounced back from losing three of four games with four straight wins before losing to Texas Tech by 22 in the Big 12 semi-finals. The Cowboys have good balance with four double figures, but they go only eight deep. The key to the Cowboys’ postseason success could be the play of Maurice Baker, a preseason Wooden Award nominee. The senior guard has been bothered by a groin and ankle injuries. He missed three straight games and in his five games since returning, he scored just eleven points, including a one for nine performance in their Big 12 quarterfinal 22-point loss. Oklahoma State needs him to be 100%, if they expect to be playing after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Kent State (27-5) won their third Mid-American title in four years with a 70-59 victory over Bowling Green. The Flashes won 18 straight games and 23 of their last 24 contests as they have not lost in over two months. Kent State upset Indiana in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They are led by the guard trio of Trevor Huffman, Antonio Gates and Andrew Mitchell, who combined for 47.2 points per game. The Golden Flashes are a small team with two 6-3 players and a 6-9 freshman center in the frontcourt. Gates, a 6-3 transfer, led the team with 8.3 rebounds per game. Despite the lack of size, they outrebounded their opposition by 7.6 boards per game, the best in the MAC. The Golden Flashes have the second longest winning streak in the country and they showed that they are a tough first round draw. They could ruin someone’s postseason dreams in the opening round. CBN PREDICTION: Kent State by 2 Alabama (26-7) lost a chance to be a number one seed when they fell to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament championship game. The Crimson Tide won the regular season crown by two games with a 12-4 conference mark. They are led by juniors Erwin Dudley and Rod Grizzard. Dudley was named SEC Player of the Year. He is a strong, physical inside player, who led the SEC in rebounding. Grizzard has the ability to be one of the country’s top offensive players. However, he slumped in February, scoring in double figures just three of eight games and making only one of 23 three-pointers in the month. He shot just 8 of 55 from three-point range in SEC play. Freshman playmaker Maurice Williams made an impact as the floor general for Alabama. He finished third in the SEC in assists, but needs to cut down on his turnovers and improve his 37.1% shooting. The Crimson Tide have several players capable of hitting outside shots, but they were last in the SEC in three-point percentage. Alabama is a talented team, but something about them makes you wonder if they are vulnerable to an early round upset. Florida Atlantic (19-11) makes its first ever NCAA Tournament appearance by beating Georgia State 76-75 in the finals of the Atlantic Sun (former the Trans America Athletic Conference). The Owls, who are coached by former NBA and UNLV standout Sidney Green, were just 2-28 and 7-24 the past two seasons, finishing tenth and ninth in the ten-team conference. Florida Atlantic is led by 6-10 Raheim Brown, who finished sixth in the conference in scoring, third in rebounding and led the Atlantic Sun in blocked shots. The Owls have a well-balanced offense with three-double figure scorers and six players who scored more than six points per contest. Nine players averaged more than 12 minutes per game. Brown shot 53.8% from the field, but their next three leading scorers shot less than 40%. They were ninth in field goal percentage, making just 43.3% from the field and were last from the line, making 65.7% from the charity stripe. Fans from the Boca Raton school should make sure they buy plenty of souvenirs, since their appearance will likely be brief. CBN PREDICTION: Alabama by 20 WEST REGION Cincinnati (30-3) set a school-record with 30 wins as they defeated Marquette 77-63 in the Conference USA Tournament. However, with point guard Kenny Satterfield electing to enter the draft after his sophomore campaign, they were not considered a Top 25 preseason team, despite experienced wing players in Conference USA Player of the Year Steve Logan, Leonard Stokes and Immanuel McElroy. Despite the doubters, Bob Huggins may have done his best coaching job ever as the Bearcats bounced back from an opening season loss to Oklahoma State to roll off 20 straight victories. Logan, who led Conference USA with 21.8 points per game, was named the league’s Player of the Year. He is a likely NBA Draft pick in June. Stokes, who has improved his scoring and shooting from last season, is the team’s only other double figure scorer. McElroy’s scoring and rebounding numbers are better, but he is shooting only 46% from the field and 20.8% from beyond the arc, down from 55.7% and 30% last season. Center Donald Little was dismissed from the basketball team in May for conduct detrimental to the program, but was invited back in September. He is averaging 7.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocked shots per game. His return is important with starting center B.J. Grove leaving the team in October. Grove later rejoined the team, but he is averaging just 1.3 points and 1.3 rebounds per game in 13 contests and has been out of shape since his returm. His lack of numbers in the rebounding department have been made up by senior Jamaal Davis (7.5 points and 5.1 rebounds) and freshman Jason Maxiell (8.2, 6.8). Maxiell is an outstanding athlete and leaper. The Bearcats have not gotten much of a contribution from juco transfers Taron Barker and Jimmy Hubbard and they are not very deep, but their defense and rebounding have returned to head coach Bob Huggins’ standards. Their win in the Conference USA Tournament gives them a number one seed, but they are the most vulnerable top seed, since they are so reliant to Logan for their team’s offense. He was just 23 of 61 from the field in their three losses. Boston University (22-9) advanced to the NCAA Tournament with an easy 66-40 win over fifth seed Maine in the America East Championship Game as the Terriers have won their last nine straight. They have good depth with ten players playing double figure minutes. This depth has helped them overcome the loss of leading scorer Matt Turner (17.5 points per game) after six games with a separated shoulder. They were paced by the play of freshman guard Chaz Carr, who led the team in points and assists. Former Rutgers transfer Billy Collins finished as the team’s leading scorer and second best scorer. Boston University, who tied Vermont for the regular season crown, was helped by the defections of Hofstra, Delaware and Drexel to the Colonial Athletic Association. Those three teams finished first, second and third in the America East last season. The Terriers are a good outside shooting team that led the conference in three-point percentage and they play well on the defensive end. They paced the league in scoring defense (63.6 points), field goal defense (38.6% and three-point defense (32.2%). However, they are not overly athletic and they do not start a player over 6-7, making a first round upset unlikely. CBN PREDICTION: Cincinnati by 18 UCLA (19-11) is a team that could make a strong run in the tournament or go out in the first round. The Bruins defeated Kansas, Stanford and Arizona, but they are 8-9 in their last seventeen games and are limping into the tournament with just three wins in their last eight contests. They have a balanced attack with four double figure scorers. Jason Kapono is one of the country’s top outside shooters and center Dan Gadzuric can be a dominant big man, when he is motivated and not in foul trouble. Seniors Matt Barnes and Billy Knight have improved their games this season. Their big question mark is at point guard where freshman Cedric Bozeman and Ryan Walcott have struggled as the Bruins have tried to replace four-year starter Earl Watson. The Bruins lost in the first round of the Pac Ten Tournament and a similar showing in the NCAA Tournament could cost head coach Steve Lavin his job. Pick the Bruins at your own risk. They could a high risk, high reward type selection in your office brackets. Mississippi (20-10) has a thing about the number six. They beat then-number six Florida and Alabama at home in the last month, routing the teams by 17 and 28 points, respectively. However, they have also lost six games in their last nine, including falling to South Carolina 69-67 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Rebels have a balanced attack with four double figure scorers and six players who averaged more than 22 minutes and seven points per game. However, they are not a deep team as they generally use a six-man rotation. 5-5 mighty mite Jason Harrison is one of the quickest players in the country. They are a good shooting team, leading the SEC in free throw and three-point percentage, but their stumbling down the stretch, makes a long run unlikely. CBN PREDICTION: UCLA by 6 Miami of Florida (24-7) finished 16-13 last season in head coach Perry Clark’s first season. They returned four of five starters, so they were expected to better this year, but even the most die-hard fans could not have predicted the team’s success. They started the season 14-0, although they did finish 4-4 in their last eight games, including a 76-71 loss to Pittsburgh in the Big East semifinals. They are getting balanced scoring as all five starters are averaging double figures. The Hurricanes have one of the most underrated frontcourts in the country. Sophomore forward Darius Rice led the team in scoring and three-pointers made and is second in rebounding. 6-8 James Jones, who paces the team in rebounding and blocked shots and the return of senior forward Elton Tyler, who redshirted last year, due to academics, has been a big help. 6-7 senior swingman John Salmons is the team’s second leading scorer and rebounder and he led the team in assists. Miami needs to improve their shooting percentage, just 43.1% from the field, but they are doing the job on the defensive end. The Hurricanes are limiting their opponents to just 65.5 points per game (second best in the Big East) and 39% shooting from the field. They are not a deep team as they have just one reserve who averages more than ten minutes per contest and their lack of a true point guard could prove costly in close games. However, they are one of the most athletic teams in the country and could prove a tough team to defend. Missouri (21-11) was an underachiever this season after starting the season 9-0. Kareem Rush was the second leading scorer in the Big 12, but he did not have the junior campaign that many expected. He was expected to enter the 2002 NBA draft after this season, but an up-and-down season has made him talk about coming back for his senior year. Lone senior Clarence Gilbert is a streaky shooter, but can carry the team when he is on. Shotblocker Arthur Johnson is a widebody who plays taller than his listed height, due to his long wingspan. Fellow sophomores Ricky Paulding, who is a slashing athletic player on the wing and Travon Bryant emerged in the second half of the season. Wesley Stokes could be the key to their tournament success. He is a flashy player, but needs to improve his outside shooting to keep opposing teams honest and cut down on the turnovers. The Tigers were hurt by the 7-0 JC transfer Uche Okafor from the College of Southern Idaho being ruled ineligible. He would have given Missouri a true center in the middle. The Tigers have decent depth and Quinn Snyder has proven himself to be one of the top young coaches. They need to show more consistency than they demonstrated in a 4-5 finish, but the Tigers have a chance to turnaround a disappointing season as they have Sweet 16 talent. CBN PREDICTION: Missouri by 3 Ohio State (23-7) won its first ever Big 10 Tournament crown with an 81-64 win over surprising Iowa. The Buckeyes were able to sneak up on teams in 1999 and last season, so conference foes should have been wise to not underestimate them again. However, most preseason polls had the Buckeyes finishing outside the top five in the conference. Ohio State used good team defense to make up for the loss of the Big 10’s all-time leading shotblocker Ken Johnson as they are tied just tenth in blocked shots without their 6-11 center. The Buckeyes rely on their perimeter play. Brian Brown is an underrated player, who led the team in scoring and assists last season and tops the squad in scoring again this year. Brent Darby has been effective starter and reserve for the Buckeyes throughout his career. Boban Savovic bounced back from two injury-plagued seasons to start 30 of 31 games last season. He is the team’s second leading scorer and tops the team in assists. Sean Connolly, who transferred from Auburn to Ohio State, led the team in three-point shooting last year and despite a down season, he gives the Buckeyes four strong outside threats. The key to Ohio State’s success has been the play of their frontcourt. Zach Williams, who started as a freshman, freshman Terence Dials and sophomore Velimir Radinovic have given the Buckeyes solid numbers in the frontline. The Buckeyes are hoping to shake off the memories of a first round loss to Utah State and if their hot guard play continues, they could continue to surprise observers in the NCAA Tournament. Davidson (21-9) defeated Furman 62-57 in the Southern Conference finals as they bounced back from a 15-17 season last season to make it to their second NCAA tournament appearance in four years. Peter Anderer was voted the Southern Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player as he scored 19 of his 22 points in the second half. He shined as their leading scorer Emeka Erege was sidelined with an eye injury. The Wildcats have good depth with five double figure scorers and six players averaging more than nine points per contest. Seven players averaged between 24 and 30 minutes per game. The Wildcats are a good defensive team, allowing their opponents to shot just 38.1% from the field. They are not an athletic squad, so they will need to keep the game low scoring to stay close. CBN PREDICTION: Ohio State by 12 Gonzaga (29-3) goes from being the hunter to being the hunted as the Cinderella of the past three tournaments is now ranked #6 in the country. They were a 10th, 10th and 12th seed the past three years, but this year they will be a higher seed, athough instead of getting a third seed that they deserved, they were a sixth, which should make the Bulldogs angry. They are led by College Basketball News’ second team All-American Dan Dickau. He scored 19 of his 29 points during a 32-10 run as the Bulldogs rallied to beat top-seeded Pepperdine 96-90 for their fourth straight West Coast Conference tournament title. Dickau led the WCC in scoring and three-pointers made. He is a likely first round pick in the upcoming NBA draft. The Bulldogs are an excellent shooting team, as they led the conference in field goal percentage and three-point percentage and were second from the charity stripe. However, they are also a strong defensive squad, allowing opponents to score just 65.2 points per game and shot only 37.9% from the field. They are not just an outside bombing team as they have a good inside game with Zach Gourde and Corey Violette and they can go nine-deep. The seeding could make it tough for a four straight “Sweet 16” appearance since they will likely meet Arizona, but I’m not about to look past Gonzaga. Wyoming (21-8) had the lowest RPI (63) of any at-large team as they made the NCAA tournament field, despite losing to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament semifinals. The Cowboys won the regular season conference title with an 11-3 mark. They are probably the deepest team in the conference. This is despite losing starting point guard Chris McMillian for the season and Ugo Udezue not being able to come back to the player who averaged 20.5 points per game during the 1998-99 season before knee injury. Udezue averaged just 2.1 points and is just a shell of his former self. Freshman point guard Jason Straight was expected to learn from McMillian and become a starter next season. However, McMillian suffered a broken leg while playing softball and the player who was voted “Best Playmaker” in the MWC was forced to redshirt. Frontcourt players Marcus Bailey, the MWC leading scorer last season, Josh Davis and Uche Nsonwu-Amadi all averaged double figures and helped the Cowboys lead the conference in scoring and rebounding. They tend to pound the ball inside and they shot fewer three-pointers than any team in the league. Wyoming led the MWC in field goal percentage defense (41.2%), but they were seventh in the eight-team league in three-point defense (36.6%) and three-pointers made. This could be troublesome since their first round opponent, Gonzaga, is one of the top outside shooting teams in the country. It does not help that the Bulldogs are unhappy that they were seeded sixth, either. CBN PREDICTION: Gonzaga by 8 Arizona (22-9) returns to the NCAA Tournament for the 18th straight season as they won their fourth straight Pac-10 Tournament with an 81-71 win over USC. The Wildcats returned just one starter from a 28-8 team that advanced to the NCAA Championship game as they lost eight players. The loss of seniors like Loren Woods and Eugene Edgerson were expected, but the Wildcats also had to replace three underclassmen, Richard Jefferson, Gilbert Arenas and Michael Wright, who decided to enter the draft. Jason Gardner also put his name into the draft, but pulled his name out after a sub-par Chicago pre-draft camp. His leadership and leadership were important as he was the lone player returning to average more than six points per game on a young team. Luke Walton, an excellent passing big man who led the Pac 10 in assists, was one of the country’s most improved offensive player. He was much more confident in his shot and he averaged 15.7 points per game and paced the team in rebounding. Redshirt Rick Anderson did an excellent job in the middle for the Wildcats. Arizona relied heavily on College Basketball News’ top recruiting class in the country. Dennis Latimore was the lone McDonald’s All-American among the group, but he was the least successful of the newcomers. Outside shooter Salim Stoudamire was named Pac 10 Freshman of the Year and center Channing Frye made the All-Freshman team. Wil Bynum, a quick jet at the point guard spot and Isiah Fox, a physical center, see significant minutes off the bench. The Wildcats won all three conference tournament games by double figures after a 46 blowout win over California and may be peaking at the right time to make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament. The scary thing is that they will be even better next year with everyone back and two top guard recruits coming in. Cal Santa Barbara (20-10) made it to the NCAA tournament for the first time with a 60-56 upset win over #1 seed Utah State. The Gauchos, who returned all five starters plus a key redshirt, won their final five games of the season. They are led by first team All-Big West selection Mark Hull and second team choice Brandon Fullove. Redshirt center Adama Ndiaye was third in the league in blocked shots and fourth in rebounding. The Gauchos are a good shooting team that finished 12th in free throw percentage (75.8%) and 18th in three-point percentage (39.7%). They also are a strong defensive squad that was third in the country in field goal defense (37.6%) and ninth in scoring defense (60 points per game). Gauchos made a nice finish, but their travel plans should not include a weekend stay. CBN PREDICTION: Arizona by 20 The saying is “Go West, young man.” Xavier (25-5) goes West every game. To star center David West, that is. The junior was named Atlantic 10 Player of the Year the past two seasons. He helped lead the Musketeers to a 73-60 win over Richmond in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament championship game. West led the conference in rebounding and blocked shots and was fifth in scoring. Romain Sato is one of the most athletic players in the country. The 6-4 guard was second behind West in scoring and rebounding. The Musketeers have won 20 of their last 22 and have a chance to make it to the Sweet 16. You hear of people who wanted to go Hawaii as a terrific place to visit, but you don’t hear many saying that Tulsa is their “dream spot.” However, Hawaii (27-5) defeated Tulsa 73-59 to win the Western Athletic Conference tournament on the Hurricane’s home floor for the second straight season. The Warriors defeated Tulsa all three times they met this season. You need a pronunciation guide to follow this year’s squad as they have players from eight different countries on the roster. They are led by potential draft pick Predrag Savovic of Yugoslavia, who finished third in the WAC in scoring. They shoot the ball well, finishing second in field goal percentage and three-point percentage, but they only go seven-deep. The Warriors won twelve of their last 14. Hawaii is 0-2 in NCAA Tournament history, but this team could get their first win in school history. CBN PREDICTION: Xavier by 6 Oklahoma (27-4) won the Big 12 Tournament for the second straight season, knocking off #1 ranked Kansas 64-55. However, they are remindful of last year when they were upset by Indiana State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Sooners have good balanced with four double figure scorers. Floor general Hollis Price, the Big 12 Tournament MVP, led the team in scoring and finished third in the Big 12 in free throw percentage. Aaron McGhee paced the team in rebounding and is a strong inside player. Head coach Kelvin Sampson landed College Basketball News’ ninth best recruiting class last season as the Sooners went heavy on the juco market, signing two of the top JC scorers in the country. Jason Detrick and Ebi Ere both scored double figures and Ere was named the AP Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. Jabahri Brown became eligible after the first semester and gave the team a legitimate insider scorer and shotblocker. The Sooners finished second in the country in free throw percentage, making 77.8% from the charity stripe. They were seventh in scoring margin, outscoring their foes by 14.5 points per game. Oklahoma won their last eight games and seemed poised for a strong NCAA Tournament run. Illinois-Chicago (20-13) won the Horizon League Conference Tournament 76-75 over crosstown rival and fifth seed Loyola of Chicago. The Flames made it to the finals, despite being the sixth seed, beating the second and third seeds before the finals. They have paced by sophomores Cedric Banks and Martell Bailey. Both players are local products from Chicago Westinghouse, who sat out last season for academics. Banks led the team in scoring with 14.0 points per game and Bailey paced the team with 4.6 assists per contests. They are a good outside shooting team, making 41.1% from three-point range. However, they do not have much size as their top seven scorers are 6-5 or shorter. That will likely translate into a first round exit. CBN PREDICTION: Oklahoma by 12 EAST REGION Maryland (26-4) earned a number one seed, despite losing to North Carolina State in the ACC semifinals. The Terps are an experienced team with three senior starters and a point guard who has started every game in his career. Juan Dixon was named All-ACC for the third straight season. He finished second in the ACC in scoring and is one of the top backcourt defenders in the country. Lonny Baxter led the ACC in blocked shots and was fifth in rebounding. Both players will be selected in the June NBA Draft. Steve Blake led the ACC in assists and he has done a good job defending Duke’s Jason Williams in the past. The Terps were hoping to meet Duke in the AC Tournament Finals, but their upset loss spoiled a chance at a third meeting. They are hoping for another chance in the championship game. Chris Wilcox, who averaged just 3.6 points per game as a freshman, emerged this season to contribute 11.5 points and 7.6 rebounds and finish second behind Baxter in blocked shots. The Terps have decent depth and a strong starting five. They are also an underrated defensive team. The Terps held their opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field and 30.3% from beyond the arc, best in the ACC. Maryland has a chance to return to the Final Four for the second straight season. They will face Siena, the winner of the play-in game. Siena (17-18) was six games below .500 going into the MAAC Tournament, but won four straight on their homecourt to advance to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999 and defeated Alcorn State in the play-on game. The Saints defeated Stanford in the first round in 1989 before falling to Minnesota. Senior Dwayne Archbold scored 111 points in the four MAAC Tournament games, including 30 points in the championship game against Niagara. He led the conference in scoring and three-pointers made and finished fifth in rebounding. Siena held their opposition to just 38.6% from the field, but they only made 40.8% themselves. Head coach Rob Lanier takes the Saints to the tournament in his first season. He is the third coach in three years for the New York school. Former head men Paul Hewitt, now at Georgia Tech and Lou Orr, currently at Seton Hall. Lanier is hoping that he can make a similar move in the future. However, with their poor record, they had to win a play-in game just to get into the field of 64. All that, for the right to get spanked by Maryland. CBN PREDICTION: Maryland by 26 Wisconsin (18-12) went from having one of the most experienced teams in the conference to being the youngest as they graduated five seniors who combined for 64% of the team’s scoring and 61% of their rebounding. The Badgers lost six of their top seven scorers and most observers felt that they would finish eighth or lower in the Big Ten. They did not get any help when three players they were counting were sidelined with injuries. New head coach Bo Ryan deservingly won Big Ten coaching honors as he led the Badgers to a four-way first place tie and number one seed in the Big Ten Tournament, despite a 3-6 start. They were not quite as defensive-minded as they were under Dick Bennett, but they pride themselves on slowing teams down. The Badgers are not a deep team as they rely on a seven-man rotation and have four starters who average more than 30 minutes per game. Kirk Penney, is an excellent outside shooter and can carry the Badgers offensively. Freshman guard Devin Harris added athleticism and offense in the backcourt as he was the Badger’s only other double figure scorer. The Badgers are not loaded with individual talent, but they play well together and if you overlook them, it will come back to bit you. They overachieved this season and with only three upperclassmen, the future is bright. However, it is tough to see them making a deep run in the tournament, unless Penney gets hot. St. John’s (20-11) made the NCAA field, despite losing to Notre Dame by 20 points in the Big East semi-finals. The Red Storm lost four games in the last month by a combined 100 points, causing some observers to think that they might not make the tournament. St. John’s was led by JC transfer Marcus Hatten, who paced the team with 19.9 points per game, third best in the Big East. However, he is asked to carry much of the scoring load as they had only one other double figure scorer. He shot just 38.4% from the field and 29.4% from three-point range and he was just 64 of 189 (33.9%) from the field in their eleven losses. The team did not fare much better, shooting only 40.3% from the field, second worst in the Big East and 29.1% from beyond the arc, worst in the conference. They are not a big team with no starter over 6-8 and they finished tenth in the conference in rebounding. The Red Storm was just 7-7 in the their final 14 contests, but they are an athletic team that could give first round foe Wisconsin problems. CBN PREDICTION: Maryland by 2 Marquette (26-6) returned three starters and five of its top six scorers and its top four rebounders. However, it is the addition of Dwyane Wade, who sat out last season as partial qualifier, that has turned the Golden Eagles into a top ten team this season. Wade is an outstanding athlete and scorer who led the Conference USA in steals and was seventh in scoring. His offense has been important as they lost first team Conference USA choice Brian Wardle, who led the team in scoring the past three seasons and was second in the conference in scoring. Three-year starter Cordell Henry led the team in assists and steals for the third straight season and he raised his shooting to 47.9%, after shooting just 33.9% from the field in his first two seasons at Marquette. The Golden Eagles led the conference in field goal percentage (47.6%) and three-point percentage (38.3%). Marquette is still lacking a dominant center as they finished tenth in the conference in rebounding and ninth in blocked shots. Scott Merritt has the talent to develop into a quality big man, but he was only the team’s third leading rebounder. Wade, at 6-4, was the leader in rebounding. Head coach Tom Crean has shown that he is an excellent recruiter and has turned a team that went 15-14 in his first two seasons into a team that won twenty more games than they lost. Marquette has decent depth and a star in Wade and should challenge for a place in the “Sweet 16” spot. Tulsa (26-6) lost to Hawaii for the third straight time in the WAC Championship game, but their record gets them into the NCAA Tournament. The Golden Hurricanes are a very good shooting team that led the WAC in scoring, field goal, free throw and three-point percentage. They have good depth with nine players playing 31 or more games. The Golden Hurricanes have four double figure scorers and six players who scored eight or more points per game. Greg Harrington was named first team All-WAC and Kevin Johnson and Dante Swanson were second team choices. They are a good outside shooting team with four players making 40 or more three-pointers, but they are a bit on the small side. Tulsa starts three guards, two who are 5-10 and two 6-7 forwards, making rebounding a priority against bigger teams. Tulsa has had good success in the NCAA Tournament, going 9-6 in their last six trips. They advanced to the South Regional finals in 2000. This team has the ability to win a game or two. CBN PREDICTION: Marquette by 6 Kentucky (20-9) has been an inconsistent team that has not lived up to its preseason billing. The Wildcats were a consensus top three team in the early rankings, but they lost their season opener to Western Kentucky. They bounced back and gave Duke everything they could handle in a three-point loss, but Kentucky has not been the typical SEC power during conference play. They started conference play 0-2 and finished with six conference losses, their most since 1990. The team has been hurt by injuries and various distractions. Jason Parker, the team’s lone strong physical presence, suffered a season-ending knee injury loss in the preseason. 2001 SEC MVP Tayshaun Prince has not played as well this season and Keith Bogans has seen his scoring drop from 17 points per game on 47% shooting to 10.9 points and 38.6% from the field. Marvin Stone transferred after the first semester and there have been rumors of other players defecting the program. The team has also not solved their point guard problems. However, the Wildcats still have good depth with a ten-man rotation and Prince is capable to carrying the squad. Look for another “Sweet 16” run. Valparaiso (25-7) advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time in eight years as they won their seventh Mid Continent title in that with an easy 88-55 win over IUPUI. Valparaiso made 14 of 23 (60.9%) from three-point range in the win. The Crusaders led the conference with 77.8 points per game. They led the league in three-pointers made and attempted. Valparaiso has a balanced offense with four double figure scorers, led by Mid Continent Player of the Year Lubos Barton. They had enough offensive weapons to make up for the loss of second leading scorer Antonio Falu, who left the team midway through the season. The Crusaders have good size with 6-11 center Ratis Grafs and can go nine deep, so they could be a tough first round matchup, especially if they are hot from the perimeter. CBN PREDICTION: Kentucky by 12 Texas Tech (23-8) finished 9-19 last season and just 3-13 in Big 12 play, costing head coach James Dickey his job. They were 30-2 in 1996, but they saw their record slip each year since then and were just 11-37 in conference play the last three seasons. Former Indiana coach Bobby Knight took over the program and has created plenty of excitement by Red Raider fans. Knight immediately put his stamp on his new team when he took over, dismissing several returning players and working hard on the recruiting front. He got the job in the spring and with so many players signed in the early signing period, Knight focused on JC talent. He signed four outstanding junior college players and three have moved into the starting lineup. However, their two leading scorers are returnees who have prospered under Knight’s motion offense. Andre Emmett has gotten off to a strong start and could be the conference’s and country’s most improved player. He averaged 7.7 points per game as a freshman and has increased that to 19.7 points (third in the Big 12) this season. The 6-5 guard is also averaging 6.8 caroms per game. Andy Ellis led Texas Tech in scoring the past two seasons and he is one of the most underrated big men in the country. He is averaging 17 points per game (eighth in the Big 12) and has become a potential NBA draft pick. He is leading the team in rebounding and blocked shots. Junior college transfer Kasib Powell has shined in the early part of the season with his scoring and rebounding. He gives the Red Raiders three players among the top 16 in the Big 12 in rebounding. Fellow juco transfes Will Chavis and Nick Valdez have played key roles in the backcourt. Pawel Storozynski was thought to be the Red Raiders’ top recruit and he is rounding into form after missing the first seven games, due to an NCAA ruling about his playing previously in Europe. Texas Tech is second in scoring and field goal percentage in the conference. They are not an outstanding three-point shooting team as they ranked second from the bottom in three-pointers made. The Red Raiders have proven that they can beat top ranked teams as they knocked off Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, when they were both ranked #6 on consecutive weeks after a soft non-conference schedule. They still need to show that they can win on the road after losing to the Sooners by 26, Texas by 25 and Kansas by 27 and no one can figure out how they lost to Sam Houston or got beat by 40 in the Big 12 Tournament by Kansas. Despite that, Texas Tech will return to postseason play for the first time in five years and Knight will get plenty of consideration for national Coach of the Year honors. Southern Illinois (26-7) advanced to the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, despite losing to Creighton 84-78 in the Missouri Valley Conference championship game. The two teams both finished 14-4 in the conference. The Salukis did have to sweat it out to make sure that they got into the “Big Dance”, but the Missouri Valley Conference has gotten multiple bids in six of the last eight years, including three bids in 1999. The Salukis make it back to the tournament for the first time since 1995. Kent Williams finished third in the conference in scoring and is one of the top outside threat in the tournament. Rolan Roberts was the MVC Newcomer of the Year after leading the Missouri Valley in field goal percentage (60.8%) and blocked shots. He was also named MVC Defensive Player of the Year. The Salukis defeated Indiana and lost to Illinois by just three points. They won their last five games before falling to the Bluejays in the title game. Southern Illinois led the conference in scoring (75.9 points) and rebounding (36.5 per game), but they finished last in free throw percentage (just 61.9%), which could prove troublesome in what should be a close contest against Texas Tech. CBN PREDICTION: Texas Tech by 5 Georgia (21-9) was the surprise team of the SEC as they finished in a three-way tie for first with Kentucky and Florida after being predicted to finish last in the SEC East in the preseason. It was their first SEC title since 1990. The Bulldogs were paced by Western Carolina transfer Jarvis Hayes, who was College Basketball News’ SEC Player of the Year. He finished second in the conference in scoring and teammate Ezra Williams was third. The Bulldogs overcame adversity when guard Tony Cole was dismissed from the team. However, his loss has hurt the teams’ depth as they are down to a seven-man rotation. The Bulldogs lost 76-74 to LSU in the SEC semifinals and won just five of their last eleven games. This means a long run in the NCAA Tournament is unlikely and their being a third seed highly questionable. Murray State (19-12) advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the ninth time in the last 15 years with a 70-69 win over top seed Tennessee Tech in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. Tech was 15-1 in the regular season with their only loss to Murray State. The Racers were 9-11 before winning ten of their last eleven games. Justin Burdine, who hit the winning shot over Tennessee Tech, finished as the OVC’s fourth leading scorer. He made the second most three-pointers in the conference. The Racers have four double figure scorers, but they generally only use six players, which could spell trouble in the tournament. Murray State has not had much success in the postseason as they are 0-9 in the NCAA and N.I.T. Tournament since 1990. CBN PREDICTION: Georgia by 4 North Carolina State (22-10) advanced to their first NCAA tournament since 1991, despite getting blown out by Duke 91-61 in the AC Championship game. The Wolfpack had previously upset Maryland in the semifinals 86-82. The strong play of North Carolina State has saved the job of head coach Herb Sendek, who was criticized by local fans for not making the tournament in five years and last season they were just 13-16. The Wolfpack have good balance with four double figure scorers and seven players averaged more than six points per contest. Senior Anthony Grundy led the team in scoring, rebounding and assists and was named first team All-ACC. Freshman Julius Hodge was one of the top first year players in the country. The Wolfpack have six players who made more than 20 three-pointers and they led the ACC in free throw percentage. They finished last in the conference in rebounding, which could spell trouble in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State (19-11) underwent a massive rebuilding job after losing five seniors and underclassmen Jason Richardson and Zach Randolph, two first round picks. The Spartans bounced back from a 0-3 Big Ten start. Sophomore point guard Marcus Taylor, who struggled as a freshman, came on strong at the end of the season with a 32 and 34 point effort in the final two games as he helped Michigan State win their last five regular season games. Adam Ballinger and Adam Wolfe, who combined for just 3.6 points per game last season, averaged 20.8 points. The Spartans also got solid contributions from freshman Kelvin Torbert, Alan Anderson and Chris Hill. They lost to Indiana in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament, but have the potential to make it to the “Sweet 16,” despite being a #10 seed.” CBN PREDICTION: Michigan State by 3 Connecticut (24-6) advanced to the NCAA tournament with a nine game winning streak, capped off with a 74-65 double overtime win over Pittsburgh in the Big East Tournament title game. The Huskies have not received the notice that you would expect for a 24-win team, but they are playing about as well as anyone in the country. They are led by Caron Butler, the only unanimous selection for the All-Big East first team. Butler is a versatile player who finished fourth in the conference in scoring (19.4). He is mentioned as a possible early entry candidate to the NBA Draft. The Huskies got surprisingly strong play from freshman Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor. Gordon was the team’s second leading scorer and Okafor led the Big East in blocked shots and was fourth in rebounding. They have a strong starting five, but their bench supplied just seven points a game, so injuries or foul problems are a concern. The Huskies are hot and have the talent to make a “Sweet 16” run. Hampton (26-6) was one of last year’s NCAA Tournament’s Cinderellas and they made sure that they got invited to the ball with a 80-62 win over Howard in the MEAC Championship Game. The Pirates upset Iowa State 58-57 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year before falling to Georgetown. Hampton rolled through regular season conference play, finishing 17-1, losing only to Howard on the road. The Pirates replaced their three leading scorers with talented newcomers Devin Green, MEAC Rookie of the Year and JC transfer Barry Hairston. Tommy Adams emerged from the graduated players’ shadows to be named MEAC Player of the Year. 6-5 guard Isaac Jefferson was second in the league in rebounding and still found time to pace the team in assists. The Pirates’ upset in the tournament last year will mean that their first round opponent will overlook them this season. CBN PREDICTION: Connecticut by 13 MIDWEST REGION
Kansas lost its chance of finishing the season as the number one ranked team in the country with their 64-55 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament Championship game, but the Jayhawks figure to remain as one of the favorites to win it all. However, they need to shake the “NCAA Tournament bug.” Kansas got past the second round for just the first time in four years last season. Drew Gooden was College Basketball News’ runner-up for national Player of the Year. He is the country’s top offensive glass man and improved his offensive game. Gooden led the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding and is being mentioned as a NBA lottery pick, if he elects to bypass his senior season. Frontcourt mate Nick Collison was a fourth team College Basketball News’ All-American as he led the Big 12 in blocked shots. Both have the ability to score in the post in a variety of ways and can rebound and defend. Despite their strong play, Kirk Hinrich may get some votes for the team’s MVP. He shot an incredible 55.9% from the field and 49.2% from beyond the arc and finished second on the team in assists. Jeff Boschee, McDonald’s All-American Aaron Miles and fellow first year player Keith Langford give the Jayhawks one of the top backcourts in the country. Boschee made 47.2% from three-point range and is a fiery leader. Miles was second in the conference in assists. Fellow freshmen McDonald’s All-America Wayne Simien gives the team a strong inside presence. The Jayhawks do not have a true center, but they are among the top rebounding squads in the country. Kansas led the Big 12 in seven statistical categories and is the nation’s No. 1 team in scoring (93 points) and field goal percentage (51.6). The Jayhawks, who went 16-0 in regular-season conference play, the first team to do so in Big 12 history, went over the 100 point mark a school-record eleventh time this season. The late loss could be the thing to get the Jayhawks re-focused for a championship run. Holy Cross (18-14) won their second straight Patriot League Tournament and advanced to the NCAA Tournament with a 58-54 win over top seed American. The Crusaders, the number two seed, finished one game behind American in the regular season. They are led by Patriot League Tournament MVP Tim Szatko, who paced the team in scoring and rebounding. The Cruaders gave #2 seed Kentucky a scare before falling 72-68, but that has not been the case in most NCAA tournaments. The Patriot League teams lost by an average of 30.5 points per game in the preceding four seasons and they has not had a team win a NCAA Tournament game in its history. You would have to go back to 1993 when a team from the conference was not a 15th or 16th seed. So if you see someone picking Holy Cross in the Final Four, say “holy cripes” and immediately pocket their money. CBN PREDICTION: Kansas by 30. Stanford (19-9) struggled a bit down the stretch losing to USC by 19 and 25 points and falling to UCLA at home. This raises the question about the Cardinal’s play against more athletic teams. That was a problem in last year’s loss in the West Finals to Maryland and to North Carolina in the second round in 2000. Stanford has an excellent inside-outside combination in juniors Curtis Borchardt and Casey Jacobsen. Borchardt more than double his scoring and rebounding averages as he finished with 17 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. He is mentioned as a potential lottery pick, if he decides to turn pro. Jacobsen is one of the nation’s top outside shooter and a future NBA player. Julius Barnes gives the Cardinals’ a more athletic look at the point guard. The Cardinal have the ability to make a Sweet 16 run, if they can get back on track. Western Kentucky (29-3) extended their winning streak to 18 games as they bested Louisiana-Lafayette 76-70 in the Sun Belt tournament championship game. Senior center Chris Marcus, an expected high pick in the June NBA draft, had 24 points, including 11 straight in the final five minutes in the win. He added eleven rebounds and six blocked shots. The Hilltoppers started the season with a 64-52 upset win over Kentucky on the road and continued to win even when Marcus was sidelined for 17 games. His teammates gained confidence that they could win without the seven-footer and it helped the team have a more-balanced attack when he returned. Western Kentucky had six players average more than nine points per game and nine scored more than five points. They were second in the conference in field goal and three-point percentage. Western Kentucky has the talent and the big man in the middle for a first round mild upset. CBN PREDICTION: Stanford by 9 Florida (22-8) looked like a potential number one seed two months ago as they were 15-1, but they lost three straight games and after bouncing back to win four in a row, they lost four of their last seven games. The Gators lost to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals after beating Auburn in the first round. The up-tempo Gators are leading the SEC in scoring with 82.5 points per game and they shot 48% from the field. They are outscoring their opposition by 16.2 points per game. They have three outstanding scorers in Udonis Haslem, Matt Bonner and Brett Nelson. However, they have been hurt by the loss of players leaving early for the draft, which has affected their depth. Mike Miller and Donnell Harvey left after their national runner-up team and top recruit Kwame Brown decided that he would rather be the top pick in last year’s draft than play in Gainesville. The Gators have two McDonald’s All-American coming off the bench in James White and David Lee, but head coach Billy Donovan has said that he is going cut down on his playing rotation. The Gators are a dangerous team, because of their three-point shooting and up–tempo style, but a strong defensive, slow-down team, like first round opponent, Creighton, could give them trouble. Temple knocked them out of the NCAA tournament last season by 21 points. Creighton (22-8) defeated top seed Southern Illinois 84-78 in the Missouri Valley Conference Finals to advance to the NCAA tournament for the fourth straight season. The Bluejays had lost to the Salukis twice during the regular season. They are led by MVC Tournament and regular season MVP Kyle Korver, who is a well-rounded player. He finished fourth in scoring and sixth in assists. The Bluejays have been a number ten seed the past three years and they got past the first round once. They have three double figures and go ten-deep. CBN PREDICTION: Florida by 16 Illinois (24-8) returned three starters from a 27-8 team that advanced to the Final Eight. However, most of the season, observers felt that the Illini were underachievers. However, they won nine straight before losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Frank Williams, the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, is a tough matchup with his height and scoring ability from anywhere on the floor. He announced before the year that he was turning pro at the end of the year. This may have affected him, as he did not play as well as he did as a sophomore. However, he played better down the stretch, leading the Illini to a four-way tie for first place. He was bothered by a wrist injury in the Big Ten Tournament. Brian Cook has tremendous upside as a scorer in the paint or shooting from twenty feet. He can also run the floor and block shots. However, his inconsistent play is somewhat frustrating as Cook seems capable of so much more. Robert Archibald is a solid big man who played well in his first season as a starter. The Illini are a physical team that utilizes its entire bench, especially in the frontcourt. The loss of scrappy Lucas Johnson hurt more than expected in the beginning of the season as the Illini missed his hard-nosed style of play. However, he is back as is strong offensive rebounder Damir Krupalija. They started the season as College Basketball News’ number four preseason team and their strong finish could make that seem right in line. San Diego State (21-11) returned to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1985 with a 78-75 win over UNLV on the Rebels’ homecourt in the Mountain West Championship Game. Randy Holcomb, a strong physical forward, was named College Basketball News’ Mountain West Player of the Year. He led the conference in scoring and rebounding. The Aztecs were helped by the additions of Syracuse transfer Tony Bland and JC big man Mike Mackell, last year’s California JC Player of the Year. Bland was College Basketball News’ Mountain West Newcomer of the Year. Head coach Steve Fisher has a 20-6 NCAA tournament record on his résumé, including a national title. The Aztecs led the MWC in field goal percentage, making 48% from the field, but they were last from the charity stripe, converting only 65.8%. They are an athletic squad, but their inability to make free throws down the stretch could mean a short return to the “Bid Dance.” CBN PREDICTION: Illinois by 15 Texas (20-11) fell to Oklahoma in the Big 12 semifinals 65-51, but a 10-6 mark in the tough Big 12 and 20 wins get them into the NCAA Tournament. The Longhorns have done a solid job after losing their two leading scorers, Darren Kelly and Maurice Evans from last season and having their top player Chris Owens suffer a season-ending knee injury eleven games into the year. Owens shined this summer for the USA World University Games team, starting all eight games and he led the Big 12 in blocked shots, setting a school-record with 92 rejections last season. Owens was a preseason Wooden Award candidate and was leading the team in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots at the time of the injury. Sophomores forward James Thomas has stepped in and led the team in rebounding 17 of the team’s final 20 games. McDonald’s All-American T.J. Ford, an outstanding passer with great quickness, was named the USBWA Freshman of the Year. Ford had a school record 14 assists in his college debut against Arizona and has created easy opportunities for his teammates all season. He leads the nation in assists and set a school single-season record for assists. However, he is not much of an outside threat, making just four of 30 from three-point range. Royal Ivey and Brandon Mouton averaged just 2.8 and 5.4 points per game last season, but they contributed 11.2 and 14.3 points this year. The Longhorns have four double figure scorers, despite the loss of Owens, but no player finished among the top 16 in the Big 12 in scoring. They are not a great shooting team, finishing eighth in both field goal and three-point percentage. Texas makes their fourth straight trip to the NCAA tournament under head coach Rick Barnes. However, the Longhorns were just 7-7 in their final 14 games and 2-6 versus teams ranked in the top 25, which means an extended stay is unlikely. Boston College (20-11) was considered a “bubble team” after losing to Pittsburgh 76-62 in the Big East semi-finals. They had just an 8-8 record in a down Big East that wound up getting six bids. The Eagles started the season 9-0, but were just 11-11 the remainder of the year and they lost back-to-back games three separate times. However, their RPI was 42nd and twenty wins is still impressive. Troy Bell led the Big East in scoring and was a first team All-Big East selection. However, his shooting fell off from his sophomore season. He shot 40.5% from the field and 29.8% from beyond the arc compared to 45.9% and 39.1% last year. Bell has received more help from his teammates this season as three players are also scoring double figures. Ryan Sidney averaged 14.1 points per game, despite being slowed with a broken jaw. The Eagles do not get much contribution from their centers. Freshman Nate Doornekamp is averaging just 2.0 points and 3.5 rebounds in 16.4 minutes per game and the 6-2 Sidney is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.8 caroms per game. Their lack of big man was evident as they finished 12th out of 14 teams in the Big East in rebounding and last in blocked shots. Their matchup against Texas will feature two of the top point guards in the country in Bell and Longhorn freshman T.J. Ford. CBN PREDICTION: Texas by 3 Mississippi State (26-7) has its fans believing in fate. They defeated regular season champion Alabama 61-58 in the SEC Tournament championship game. Their only other tournament conference tournament title came in 1996 and that year they advanced to the Final Four. The Bulldogs started the season 11-0 against an admittedly soft schedule. They hit the skids, going 7-7, before getting back on track, winning their last eight contests. They did not have a scorer among the SEC’s top ten, but had three double figure scorers and six players averaged six or more points per game. The Bulldogs led the SEC in field goal percentage, making 49.1% from the filed, but they were last in free throw percentage with just 64% from the charity stripe. They are led by sophomore center Mario Austin, who led the team in scoring and rebounding. They finished ninth in the country in rebounding margin. The Bulldogs returned to the NCAA Tournament after a five-year absence and have a potential “Sweet 16” squad. McNeese State (21-8) advanced to the NCAA tournament berth for the first time in 13 years with a 65-43 victory over Louisiana-Monroe in the Southland Conference tournament title game. The number one seed finished 17-3 in the regular season and won their last 13 games. They were dominant in the Southland Tournament, winning their two games by an average of 18 points. The Cowboys are led by JC transfer Jason Coleman in scoring and three-pointers made. They have three double figure scorers and solid size with 7-1 center Raynell Brewer, who was third in the conference in blocked shots. Northwestern State won the play-in game last game, but the Southland Conference has not won a regular NCAA Tournament since 1985, when Louisiana Tech, now in Sun Belt Conference, won their first two games before losing to Oklahoma in overtime. That squad had Karl Malone. Unfortunately, the alma mater of Joe Dumars, does not have a future NBA player on their roster, so look for an early exit. CBN PREDICTION: Mississippi State by 19 Wake Forest (20-12) is an experienced team that starts four seniors and one junior. They are led by potential NBA draft pick Darius Songaila, who finished sixth in the ACC in scoring and seventh in rebounding. The Demon Deacons have good balance with all five starters averaging 9.6 points per game or better. They have outside shooters to compliment the inside game of Songaila as five players sank 25 or more three-pointers. Although they were ranked most of the season, Wake Forest is just 3-9 among teams ranked in the Top 20 and they limped into the NCAA tournament, winning just seven of their last 16 games. They had two three-game losing streaks during that stretch. The Demon Deacons run hot and cold and March is the time you need to be clicking on all cylinders. They can win one or maybe two games, but their inconsistent late season play makes a long run look unlikely. Pepperdine (22-8) lost to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference championship game 96-90, but the Waves earned a spot in the NCAA tournament field with a 13-1 mark. Pepperdine started the season 5-6, but four of their losses were to NCAA tournament teams and they defeated UCLA and USC on the road. Pepperdine had four double figure scorers and had six players who score nine or more points per game. Boomer Brazzle and Jimmy Miggins were named to the College Basketball News’ All-WCC team. The Waves led the WCC in scoring with 81.9 points per game, blocks and steals and they were second in field goal percentage (45.8%) and three-point percentage (36.9%). They upset Indiana in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in 2000 and have the chance to be a sleeper team again this season. CBN PREDICTION: Wake Forest by 6 |
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