WhatIf Simulation: Ohio State/Michigan

WhatIfSports.com simulated upcoming Michigan vs. Ohio State game 1,000 times. The Buckeyes come through victorious in 65% of those games, winning by an average score of 27-20. The following is a recap of a typical game from the simulations.

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With all of the hype surrounding this game, it is impressive that it actually lived up to every college football fan’s expectations and then some. A key interception swung the momentum and will land the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) in the National Championship after a 27-20 victory over Michigan (11-1).

After a three stalled drives and a scoreless first ten minutes of the game, underdog Michigan shook out the nerves and jumped out to a lead with a bubble screen from junior quarterback Chad Henne to senior wide receiver Steve Breaston that Breaston turned into a nifty 22-yard touchdown.

The defenses, two of the best in the nation, forced six consecutive punts before OSU strung together a drive late in the first half. With 2:52 remaining in the second quarter, sophomore Brian Robiskie took a deep pass from senior Heisman candidate Troy Smith 62 yards down the sideline, putting the Buckeyes in striking distance. After OSU converted a 3-and-5 with a pass from Smith to junior Anthony Gonzalez, Smith hit sophomore scat-back Maurice Wells on a play-action pass for a four-yard touchdown to even the score at 7-7 going into halftime.

Michigan came out strongest again in the second half with a TD from Henne to junior Mike Hart. The teams then traded field goals on consecutive drives to bring the score to 17-10 Michigan by the end of the third quarter.

The Buckeyes fed off the crowd and physical nature to pound the ball and march down the field in a game – and season – defining drive that ended when Gonzalez made a great catch over Wolverine All-American candidate Leon Hall on an 18-yard strike from Smith.

OSU’s defense maintained the momentum and responded just two plays later when Malcolm Jenkins intercepted Henne and returned the ball to the Michigan 30 yard line. With a raucous crowd and all the momentum in a 17-17 game, the Buckeyes scored quickly again with another Smith-to-Gonzalez connection.

Aaron Pettrey added a late fourth quarter field goal to make the score 27-20 and give the ball back to Michigan with 3:26 left in the game. The Wolverines converted one fourth down, but lost all hope when Henne was sacked by Buckeye standout linebacker James Laurinaitis on 4-and-16 with just 46 seconds to go.

Smith essentially locked up the Heisman Trophy with 339 yards, three TDs and no interceptions to earn Player of the Game honors. Two of the touchdowns went to Gonzalez who finished with eight catches for 124 yards. Mike Hart won the battle of running backs, gaining 151 yards on 28 carries, while sophomore Antonio Pittman was held in check by the Wolverine’s great rushing defense.

As the de facto Big Ten Championship, both teams complete the season with this game. Michigan will most likely play in the Rose Bowl on January 1st, while the Buckeyes will face an undetermined opponent in the National Championship on January 8th.

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