Why Florida Wins
The name is TEBOW, and the story continues. In the end, when one versus two matches up Saturday in Atlanta in a death match to the national championship game and conference title, it will be those five letters that are the reason. Tim Tebow continues to add chapters to college football's most storybook career, and there appear to be two more chapters left.
There are a lot of reasons Florida might beat any team on any given Saturday, but this week it is different. This week, the Gators meet their match in Atlanta, that is their match everywhere, but one position.
Take nothing away from Alabama junior quarterback Greg McElroy who has guided the undefeated Tide to the SEC Championship game. In his first season, Tebow was behind a senior in Chris Leak, who Tebow just passed as the Gators total offensive yards leader with 11,389 career yards rushing and passing. Tebow wasn't needed to be the man then. McElroy will be asked to direct his team from start to finish yet again.
Elsewhere the Gators and Tide are much closer to even when comparing positions. In pass defense, Florida ranks first in the conference while Alabama is second. In rush defense, Alabama is first with Florida second. Pass efficiency defense The Tide is on top with Florida just behind in second. Florida has the most interceptions in the conference and Alabama is right behind them in second place.
The Crimson Tide has all-stars at every level of the defense. Terrence Cody is a one-man defensive line, while Rolando McClain is a great quarterback at linebacker, and Javier Arenas provides play-making ability to the secondary.
Florida counters with All-SEC defensive end Jermaine Cunningham, All-American linebacker Brandon Spikes, and All-American cornerback Joe Haden. Al three are arguably the best play makers at their positions in the SEC.
On offense the Gators lead the SEC in total offense with Alabama coming in fourth. Both teams run for days while the Florida offense is first in the conference and Alabama fourth. Same with pass efficiency on offense, Florida leads the league and Alabama is fourth.
Florida quarterback Tim Tebow
(AP Photo/Dave Martin)
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Alabama has the best receiver on the field in Julio Jones while Florida has the best tight end and receiver combo in Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper.
Alabama has a powerful running tandem in Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Florida counters with a four headed attack led by Tebow, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, and Emmanuel Moody.
Special Teams are close as well; Florida leads the conference in kickoff returns, Alabama is second. Florida has a significant advantage in net punting only allowing 13 punt return yards all season. While Alabama is a lofty second in the conference in punt return yardage. Something will have to give there.
It is as even a match up as you will ever find for two teams ranked number one and two in the nation. This is what college football is all about and the match up most people have been looking forward to since the third week of the season.
In the end, it is all going to be about one man, one myth, one legend, Tim Tebow, who made a promise in September of 2008. The “Tebow Promise” was inspired by a game the Gators lost that they shouldn't have to Ole Miss. It went something like this.
"You will never see any player in the entire country who will play harder than I will play the rest of the season. And you will not see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody for the rest of the season, and you will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season."
The Crimson Tide saw it last year when Tebow and company scored the go ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. He raced over to a huddled special teams unit about to kick off and nearly bowled them all over and spurred them on to play one great down on special teams. Then, he led his team to another score that would clinch the SEC.
Since then, the Gators have won a national championship and have been on the winning end of 22 straight games. Saturday, both teams have players on both sides that are difference makers but there is one guy on either team that can make the entire team better. And ... his name is spelled TEBOW.
Why Alabama Wins
A year ago, Alabama and Florida met in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game with the Crimson Tide ranked number one and the Gators ranked second. This year the rankings are reversed, Florida one, Bama two. It appears that Florida—essentially the same players a year older--has a better team this year than in 2008, when the Gators won the national championship. Logic makes Florida the favorite.
That does not mean Alabama cannot defeat Florida Saturday. The Crimson Tide has a better team than last year, too. It may be the best Alabama ever, and that includes a lot of national championship teams.
Both teams will revisit the 2008 game. For Alabama the task will be to replicate the plan that gave the Crimson Tide the lead at the three-quarters mark and to shore up those areas that allowed the Gators to score 14 points to win the game in the fourth quarter.
Alabama’s championship tradition goes back many, many decades. It is part of the reason so many outstanding football players choose to play for the Crimson Tide. Those who don’t have that tradition scoff at its importance, but it provides core strength for those surrounded every day by the accoutrements of past football success.
It’s a little easier to provide fodder with the subject “Why the Gators Will Win.” It brings to mind the old comedy skit in which the defense attorney is beginning opening arguments to the jury. His client has been charged with heinous crimes -- witnessed by dozens and caught in the act. “This case is easy for the prosecution,” the attorney says. “They have proof.”
Alabama has very good players at every position. The problem for the Tide is that the Gators match a Rolando McClain with a Brandon Spikes, a Julio Jones with a Riley Cooper, a Javier Arenas with a Brandon James. But that cuts both ways--with the exception of quarterback.
The main thing the Gators have is Tim Tebow, who almost signed with Alabama. He has nearly 100 more rushing attempts than Florida’s starting tailback, Jeff Demps. He’s an extraordinary passer.
In short, Tebow is the man who wins games for Florida.
Alabama will go at it from a different direction. Prior to last week, first-year starting Crimson Tide quarterback Greg McElroy would not have been expected to win the game for Alabama. In the Jay Barker mold of Bama’s 1992 national championship team, McElroy would be expected to manage the game and not lose it.
Alabama won a national championship with Joe Namath at quarterback. McElroy is no Namath. But Alabama also won national championships with the likes of Pat Trammell, Steve Sloan, Jeff Rutledge, Steadman Shealy, and Barker, all heady guys who could lead teams to victory. McElroy is in that mold, the quarterback who makes everyone around him better.
Alabama running back Mark Ingram
(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
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The Crimson Tide can win Saturday without McElroy having to make the winning play, but if Florida spreads its defensive resources, McElroy is capable. It would be a stretch to say Alabama’s defense has the advantage in knowing it has to stop Tebow, but that plan would be a start.
Alabama having a plan to limit Tebow’s success is different than that of most teams, who would be mostly wishing. The Crimson Tide has a defense that can man-up. Tebow is a two-headed monster. If Alabama can make him one-dimensional, he’s still a monster, but somewhat more manageable.
Alabama had a harrowing experience in its final regular season game, pulling out a 26-21 win over Auburn. McElroy took the Tide 79 yards in 15 plays in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. He ended the drive with a four-yard touchdown pass for the winning points.
While the Auburn game was a nerve-wracking situation for Alabama, the Tide prevailed in that test of nerves. Bama can draw on that experience if needed Saturday.
Florida ranks a little higher in most statistics, but not to great consequence.
There are many reasons a team wins a close game. Last year it may have been a finger-flick of a Florida facemask, a penalty that kept the Gators alive in the fourth quarter. It can be the bounce of a ball that’s not round. It can be one team just having an off day, though that’s nothing to count on.
In 1992, almost no one thought Alabama – the old money of college football – could defeat nouveau riche Miami and its Heisman Trophy winner Gino Torretta. The Hurricanes were one of those teams that couldn’t be beaten, but Bama romped to the national championship with a 34-13 Sugar Bowl win.
So where are the specifics? How does Alabama defeat Florida? It isn’t one thing. It isn’t by winning on offense or defense or special teams. Alabama must defeat Florida in every area, even if by a razor thin margin.
It could be Javier Arenas on a punt return or Julio Jones on a long pass reception. Bama’s running backs are better than any Florida has faced. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson could control the game.
Former Alabama Coach Paul “Bear” Bryant, who knew something about winning championships, was wont to say, “I’ll take one point.” It could be that close Saturday.
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