BCS? Heisman? Both?
A team from a Non-BCS conference playing in a BCS Championship?
A player from a Non-BCS school winning the Heisman Trophy?
Following the 2009 season, I was convinced that the former was much more likely than the latter. After all, is there any doubt that one of Boise State's, TCU's, or Utah's undefeated teams over the last five years would have been chosen to a BCS Championship game over a two loss LSU following the 2007 season? At least one of those teams finished the regular season undefeated three of the previous four years, but they picked a bad year to skip in '07.
By contrast, it's hard to imagine a quarterback having a better year than Boise State's Kellen Moore in 2009. Moore threw for over 3500 yards with a stellar 64.3% completion rate and an absurd 39 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. It goes to show how heavily influenced the passing efficiency formula is towards yards per attempt when Moore finished second in efficiency to Florida's Tim Tebow despite throwing 18 more touchdowns and two fewer interceptions.
Should Moore have won the Heisman in 2009?
I don't think he should have won the Heisman in 2009 any more than Boise State belonged in the BCS Championship game in front of Alabama or Texas last year. The Boise State schedule was simply too soft.
When fans are holding up signs in the stands during a week one victory over Oregon proclaiming the injustice of their inevitable snubbing from the BCS, they might not want to admit it, but they knew then and there that their schedule wasn't up to par with the rest of the contenders.
That being said, Kellen Moore wasn't even invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony following the 2009 season. Houston's quarterback Case Keenum wasn't invited either despite putting up Techmo Bowl numbers as well. Keenum not only led the nation in total offense, he lapped the field at 416 yards per game with the next closest player being Troy's Levi Brown at 327.
The message coming from New York was, "We don't care what kind of numbers you put up, you're Q rating isn't high enough for us."
Back to the original question. Which is more likely to happen first, the BCS game or the Heisman?
It's possible that they both could happen during/after the 2010 season making the right answer be "push".
Now a junior, Kellen Moore leads a Boise State team poised for a BCS Championship run in 2010. Moore is no longer the under-the-radar player looking to gain national attention. He's the surgical quarterback who put up unreal numbers his first two seasons and plays on that team that never seems to lose. Boise State enters the 2010 season ranked No. 5 in the country, and their first game could be its biggest.
In a world full of overstatement, I'm hesitant to call Boise State's opener against No. 6 Virginia Tech in Landover, Md. the biggest game in the history of the Bronco program (that phrase may have been retired against Oklahoma), it's certainly the biggest of Moore's career.
Go on the road with a win and a solid showing against the Hokies, and Boise State and Kellen Moore all of a sudden become the hunted when it comes to the beauty contest that is college football polling and Heisman Trophy voting.
The Bronco schedule gets an upgrade with the addition of Oregon State as well. Now it's not just a one and done in week one, the Broncos have a second team in week two capable of beating them. Boise State desperately needs someone, anyone from within its conference to have a good season and not make the WAC look like Boise State and everyone else. If not, the attention challenged public will be hard pressed to remember them as they roll through the likes of San Jose State, Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah State enroute to yet another undefeated, but unfulfilled season.
But for the first time in its program's history, Boise State is in its best position to control its own destiny.
The Broncos are beginning the season with a high ranking against a high profile opponent. While their schedule is still looks the weakest pre-season, it's stronger than in year's past.
Quarterback Kellen Moore plays the glamour position at a Top 5 team, and he puts up staggering statistics. The numbers will be there at the end of the season. Will the Broncos be there as well?
Boise State could finish the season playing in the BCS Championship Game in Glendale, Ariz. with the Heisman Trophy winner under center.
Or it could all go up in smoke against the Hokies in week one.
The stakes have never been higher for Moore and his Broncos.
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