HOUSTON UIL REALIGNMENT PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

It is that time of year again when rampant speculation and rumors are aplenty. It is time to put the facts on the table, put some facts out there and give our best thoughts on what the realignment will look like. No one can predict the UIL, we have more numbers, have talked to more coaches than anyone else and I guarantee you they will do something in 5A that no one saw coming. Is that a cop out on our part? Sure it is, but we are honest about it and we are not running around with tin foil on our heads, well at least not this time. So unwrap the tin foil, sit down, grab your favorite cup of coffee and let's get to what are the facts and what we think will happen.

THE RULES: First rule of realignment is YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT REALIGNMENT, second rule is YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT REALIGNMENT. Okay not really, but it would be really cool if it was.

Class 5A border- simple math, 245 teams will be the number, plus 1 with Houston Lee in basketball. The math is easy, see which teams have the 245 largest enrollments. Now comes the tricky part, teams can opt up to play at a higher classification for several reasons. First reason is because of travel hardships, this usually includes Laredo and Eagle Pass schools. Second is if your ISD has eight or more schools, thus school districts like Fort Bend and HISD can opt teams up to a higher classification. 

So what other exceptions are out there? New schools that are not fully four-year schools yet can turn in a number based on a formula the UIL uses. Thus Spring Dekaney, Fort Bend Travis and Clear Springs project how many students they would have. The final number we have for the bottom line in 5A is 2123 by New Caney. Congrats Coach Roberts, your team will officially be the smallest team in 5A, not counting the teams that opted up.

THE NUMBERS: 

5A TEAMS MOVING TO 4A: The list in Houston is long and extensive, in fact almost too long to list, but I will do my best. Stratford and Westbury, whew, I was not sure I could get them all in. Yes, Houston will only lose two teams to 4A classification with Westbury turning in 1676 and Stratford turning in 2056. Other borderline schools are New Caney (2123), Dickinson (2150) and Bush (2123).

NEW SCHOOLS TO 5A: Spring Dekaney, Clear Springs, Fort Bend Travis, and Cypress Woods. These four come into 5A in their first varsity season so they will have to get their programs going right off the bat.

4A TEAMS MOVING TO 5A: Dickinson, New Caney and Seven Lakes make the big jump from 4A to 5A and are no longer the biggest team on the blocks.

NUMBER OF DISTRICTS: Currently the configuration is Houston area has 15-24 in 5A, which is 10 teams. In West Texas Abilene Cooper will be going to 4A thus making a five team district, we project 2 and 3 combining with Abilene High going to the Weatherford district. DFW will not be able to pick up the extra district because they lose a stunning eight teams that will go from 5A to 4A. Centex loses four teams but pick up three, thus a net loss. The Valley gains one 5A team so they can't house the extra district. Houston is the winner by default, thus begins the fun speculation. Figure the UIL will add the district to region 2 and give Houston districts 14, 15, and 16 in that region, the alternate is to give Houston a region 4 district which makes no sense. 

So how will the districts look? Here are our projected districts and the reasons why. 


DISTRICT 14-5A
Conroe 
Conroe Oak Ridge 
Conroe The Woodlands
Conroe The Woodlands College Park
Lufkin 
Magnolia 
Tomball 

Why we project this district: Pretty simple district, it is the same as last year with Tomball added in to give them 7 districts. Most of the other districts in the area are going to be seven so it makes little sense to put a six team district next to an eight team district when their are schools between them (Magnolia and Tomball). That being said, don't be shocked to see Tomball go to 15-5A.
PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Conroe, The Woodlands, College Park and Lufkin


DISTRICT 15-5A
Klein 
Klein Collins 
Klein Forest 
Klein Oak 
Spring 
Spring Dekaney
Spring Westfield 

Why we project this district: Same district as last year with Dekaney replacing Tomball. 
PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Klein Forest, Klein Oak, Klein High and Westfield

DISTRICT 16-5A
Cy Creek
Cy Fair
Cy Falls
Cy Ridge
Cy Springs
Cy Woods
Jersey Village
Langham Creek

Why we project this district: The district loses Strake Jesuit and adds Cy Woods to make a nice even 8 teams.
PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Cy Ridge, Cy Falls, Cy Fair, Cy Woods

DISTRICT 17-5A
Aldine
Aldine Eisenhower
Aldine MacArthur
Aldine Nimitz
Humble 
Humble Atascocita
Humble Kingwood 
New Caney 

Why we project this district: now begins the fun, we have to create one district and we think the break is going to be here. Why this makes sense is that you have two districts in the Northeast part of the city. Aldine's stadium, Thorne, is right off the beltway and Aldine Westifield while Humble's stadium is just south of Beltway 8, only a few minutes away. New Caney is going to be one of the teams that can end up in several spots and geographically they fit here.
PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Eisenhower, MacArthur, Humble, Nimitz

DISTRICT 18-5A
Houston 
Houston Bellaire 
Houston Chavez 
Houston Lamar 
Houston Madison 
Houston Milby 
Houston Westside 

Why we project this district: Same as it ever was, minus Westbury. Rumor has it that the UIL has thought of putting Strake Jesuit with the HISD teams but we think they fit better elsewhere.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Chavez, Lamar, Madison, Westside

DISTRICT 19-5A
Katy 
Katy Cinco Ranch 
Katy Mayde Creek 
Katy Morton Ranch
Katy Seven Lakes
Katy Taylor 

Why we project this district: With Seven Lakes coming up to 5A you get a nice six team district but you could have Strake Jesuit here to give the district seven. Only problem with that is SJ would lose every vote for every meeting and the UIL usually tries to avoid those situations when possible

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Katy, Cinco Ranch, Mayde Creek, Taylor

DISTRICT 20-5A
Alief Elsik 
Alief Hastings 
Alief Taylor 
Houston Memorial 
Houston Northbrook 
Houston Spring Woods
Houston Strake Jesuit 

Why we project this district: They fit geographically with Spring Branch ISD playing their football at Dairy Ashford off of I-10 and Alief playing right off of Beltway 8. Strake Jesuit joins this configuration to give them seven teams, they will be a tie breaker vote thus could have some say in district meetings.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Elsik, Hastings, Taylor, Strake Jesuit

DISTRICT 21-5A
Fort Bend Austin 
Fort Bend Bush 
Fort Bend Clements 
Fort Bend Dulles 
Fort Bend Elkins 
Fort Bend Hightower 
Fort Bend Kempner 
Fort Bend Marshall 
Fort Travis
Fort Bend Willowridge 

Why we project this district: Travis plays their first season of varsity football. This is a ten team district. Marshall and Willowridge have 4A numbers but the AD's office opted them up rather than play in 4A. Chad Washington, it will be okay, maybe next time around.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Clements, Hightower, Kempner and Marshall

DISTRICT 22-5A
Baytown Lee 
Baytown Sterling 
Beaumont West Brook 
Channelview 
Port Arthur Memorial 
Deer Park 
La Porte 

Why we project this district: Humble ISD leaves the district with Deer Park and La Porte joining in this realignment. Actually North Shore fits better in this district but it creates an odd number district and the UIL seems to like keeping North Shore with the Pasadena ISD schools. 

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Baytown Lee, West Brook, Memorial, Channelview

DISTRICT 23-5A
Galena Park North Shore
Pasadena 
Pasadena Dobie 
Pasadena Memorial 
Pasadena Rayburn 
Pasadena South Houston
Pearland 

Why we project this district: La Porte and Deer Park leave with Pearland joinin the fun with their old friend North Shore. Hatfields, meet the McCoys. Someone from 24-5A needs to come up because it is already at eight schools so it has to be Pearland or Alvin with Pearland being further north. 

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: North Shore, Memorial, South Houston Pearland

DISTRICT 24-5A
Alvin 
Clear Brook
Clear Creek
Clear Lake 
Clear Springs
Clute Brazoswood 
Dickinson 
Galveston Ball 

Why we project this district: Dickinson and Clear Springs replace Pearland to create a nice eight team district. Only other configuration I see possible is Alvin joining the Pasadena schools also.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Clear Lake, Brazoswood, Dickinson, Clear Creek

RECAP: Of course this is just our opinion backed by facts on who will go to 5A or 4A. To Texasprepinsider.com this makes for some fun districts.

BIGGEST WINNERS: Spring Branch ISD teams left in 5A, they don't have to contend with Stratford for two year's.
BIGGEST LOSERS: If our projections hold up then it is hands down Deer Park and La Porte, the give up the Pasadena ISD schools and replace them with Baytown Lee, West Brook, Channelview and Port Arthur.