Almost Perfect Picks Does Well – Sort Of

It depends on how one grades the Almost Perfect Picks, but the primary goal of the weekly exercise is to select which team will win in games involving Southeastern Conference teams. In that regard, the picks were better than Almost Perfect last week.

This week we’ll barely have time for all the research we put into this project because the first game involving an SEC team is one of those Thursday night games usually reserved for the Sun Belt or somesuch. Auburn will be at Kansas State.

But that’s for later. As for now, here is the record in last week’s picks: Eleven games, 11 correct.

We were particularly proud of picking two upsets correctly, South Carolina over Georgia and Arkansas over Texas Tech.

Alabama over Southern Miss was easy, as were quite a few of the games in which SEC teams continued their warm-ups before getting into conference action.

Alabama has its first SEC game this week when the Tide hosts Florida. That game will be at 2:30 p.m. CDT with CBS televising the game from Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Gators were lucky to get by Kentucky last week, winning 36-30 in three overtimes in Gainesville.

Vanderbilt was another lucky winner and we probably won’t be picking the Commodores to win another game.

Although the only thing we’re interested in is picking the winners, we know that others wonder about how the picks are against the point spread and/or how they performed against another gambling possibility, the over/under (combined points scored).

The answer is just so-so.

All 11 games had a published gambling line. We were right on four, wrong on six, and one game – LSU over Louisiana-Monroe – hit right on the line and thus was a push, or no bet.

On the over-under, we were correct on seven and wrong on four. For instance, even though we correctly predicted Alabama to defeat Southern Miss, our predicted score of 52-0 was wrong on the betting margin after the Tide won by 52-12. The line had been 48. And we were incorrect on the over/under, which was 55.

Thus, on the betting opportunities we were 11-10. For those who may not know, the Las Vegas casinos have a little cushion built in, so 11-10 is not a winner. Say you made a $10 bet on each possibility. You would have won $110 on the 11 correct picks. On the 10 incorrect picks you would have lost your $10 plus the 10 per cent penalty the casino adds. Thus, you would also have lost $110.

For the year, Almost Perfect Picks is 32-2 straight up and 38-19 on gambling possibilities. As always, we strongly advise against betting on college football, and particularly against depending on the Almost Perfect Picks.

In addition to this week’s Auburn-Kansas State game on Thursday and Florida at Alabama on Saturday, SEC teams in action include Arkansas hosting Northern Illinois, Georgia hosting Troy, LSU hosting Mississippi State, Missouri hosting Indiana, South Carolina at Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M at SMU. Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are taking the week off.

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