Almost No One Could Have Predicted Upsets

With no Alabama game last week, one might have suspected that the Almost Perfect Picks panel might not have its heart in its work. Nothing could have been farther from the truth. No amount of work could have enabled predictions of all of the upsets.

Alabama had an open date last week, which was something of an upset Saturday in the Southeastern Conference. Also open last week was LSU. Bama and LSU play Saturday night in Baton Rouge and that is one of the games the APP panel will have to deal with when it makes its predictions later this week.

There were a few successes last week. For instance, the APP almost hit the Auburn win over Ole Miss on the money. The prediction was Auburn 37, Mississippi 31 and the actual final was 35-31. That meant that the APP had the correct winner, had the winner against the point spread (because Ole Miss was favored in the game), and was correct on the over-under.

The Missouri-Kentucky game was also a big success, the Tigers taking the Wildcats by 20-10 and the prediction of 27-14 producing check marks in all three categories.

But somehow the APP managed to badly miss two so-called upsets. The panel thought that Georgia would be able to overcome its coaching and trounce a Florida team about to lose its coach. Nope. The Gators romped the Bulldogs. Similarly at South Carolina, new Tennessee Coach Butch Jones is on the way up and the self-proclaimed Ball Coach is now being considered past his prime after the Vols upset the Gamecocks.

The bottom line is that the APP got five right and two wrong to improve the season record to 68-14. But the predictions would have been only 8-6 in gambling opportunities (against the point spread and on the over-under on total points scored) and is 74-53 for the year.

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