Almost Perfect Picks Got Alabama Right

Before getting into the Almost Perfect Picks results of last week’s Southeastern Conference football games, some explanations are necessary.

Not on Alabama. The APP was perfect on the game that department spends the most time studying. The Crimson Tide defeated Arkansas, 41-23, which meant the APP got the winner, was correct against the spread (the number of points by which one team is favored to win), and also nailed the over/under (the predicted number of points scored combined by both teams).

There were some games where the APP was not so accurate. But consider this: no one has been able to figure out either Auburn or Kentucky this year, and the teams were playing against each other. Moreover, it was on a Thursday night, which meant the APP had to rush its prediction.

The APP also miscalculated on when the Ole Miss Rebels would go into the annual full swoon. The Mississippi team that defeated Alabama earlier this year has now lost two in a row, but we didn’t expect one of those losses to be to an AAC team.

For the week, the APP was 5-2 in picking the winner, 4-3 against the predicted point spread, and 4-3 vs. the over/under.

For the year the APP is now 52-13 in picking SEC winners and 35-22 vs. the over/under, but only 26-31 vs. the point spread.

Here is how we did last week:

Auburn at Kentucky (Auburn favored by 2, over/under 51 1/2) – Prediction: Kentucky 24, Auburn 21. Actual: Tigers 30, Wildcats 27. So we were wrong, wrong, wrong.

Ole Miss at Memphis (Rebels favored by 10 1/12, o/u 64 1/2) – Prediction: Ole Miss 42, Memphis 17. Actual: Memphis 37, Mercenaries 24. Wrong on the winner and against the spread, but sneaked out a correct call on the over/under.

Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State (MSU favored by 13, o/u 58) – Prediction: State 28, Tech 14. Actual: State 45, Tech 20. The predicted winner and the win against the line were correct, but missed on the o/u.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina (South Carolina favored by 3, o/u 45 1/2) – Prediction: South Carolina 27, Vandy 13. Actual: Gamecocks 19, Commodores 10. Correct on the winner, correct against the spread, and correct on the o/u.

Florida at LSU (LSU favored by 9 1/2, o/u 47 1/2) – Prediction: LSU 34, Florida 17. Actual: Tigers 35, Gators 28. Another across the board correct.

Missouri at Georgia (Bulldogs favored by 16, o/u 45 1/2) – Prediction: Georgia 34, Missouri 14. Actual: Bulldogs 9, Tigers 6. Way off on the score, but got the winner while missing both against the line and the o/u.

Alabama at Texas A&M (Alabama favored by 4, o/u 52 1/2) – Prediction: Alabama 38, Texas A&M 28. Actual: Bama 41, Aggies 23. Got the winner, beat the spread, and had the o/u.

One good thing is that this week there are no games of such little importance as to be played on a Thursday, so the APP will have plenty of time for a better effort on the six games involving SEC teams this week.


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