Neither Games Nor Picks Were Easy

Alabama had an understanding of the formula, perhaps owing to Coach Nick Saban’s memory of the Tide’s game against Georgia Southern in 2011 and his colorful reminder of that game to his team (and the rest of the world)

Alabama took care of business, blasting Charleston Southern, 56-6, on Cupcake Week, and Bama starters were out of the game early, many before the end of the first quarter. That allowed the Crimson Tide to give men a bit of rest prior to the final regular season game of the year this week against Auburn.

That’s what our Almost Perfect Picks Department had in mind with its picks last week. But Florida and Georgia had to go to overtime to defeat Florida Atlantic and that same Georgia Southern team of which Nick Saban had spoken, and South Carolina couldn’t beat The Citadel.

The APP has been known to blame coaches and players when its picks are off the mark, but last week was not a shining moment for this hard working (they say) group of nerds.

For the week, the APP was only 6-4 in predicting the winners, and only 3-5 both against the spread, or the line, which is the number of points by which a team is favored, and vs. the over/under, the predicted number of points to be scored by both teams.

For the year, the APP now is 76-26 in picking SEC winners and 55-34 against the over/under, but only 40-50 vs. the spread.

Last week’s results (based on newspaper accounts of the line and the over/under):

Florida Atlantic at Florida (Florida favored by 31 1/2, over/under 46 1/2) – PREDICTION: Florida 35, Florida Atlantic 10. ACTUAL: Florida 20, Florida Atlantic 14. Believe it or not, we were correct on the winner, correct against the spread, and correct on the over/under.

The Citadel at South Carolina (no line) – PREDICTION: South Carolina 24, The Citadel 7. ACTUAL: Citadel 23, South Carolina 22. Believe it or not, no one could have gotten this one right, and we were wrong.

LSU at Ole Miss (Ole Miss favored by 4, o/u 56) – PREDICTION: LSU 31, Ole Miss 24. ACTUAL: Ole Miss 38, LSU 17. Way wrong on the winner and against the line, barely right on the o/u.

Idaho at Auburn (Auburn favored by 33 1/2, o/u 63) – PREDICTION: Auburn 49, Idaho 10. ACTUAL: Auburn 56, Idaho 34. Correct on the winner, incorrect against the line and vs. the o/u.

Mississippi State at Arkansas (Arkansas favored by 4, o/u 58) – PREDICTION: Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 21. ACTUAL: Bulldogs 51, Hogs 50. Wrong on all counts.

Georgia Southern at Georgia (Georgia favored by 13 1/2, o/u 50 1/2) – PREDICTION: Georgia 34, Georgia Southern 17. ACTUAL: Georgia 23, Georgia Southern 17. Correct on winner, wrong against the line and the o/u.

Tennessee at Missouri (Tennessee favored by 8, o/u 42 1/2) – PREDICTION: Missouri 21, Tennessee 17. ACTUAL: Tennessee 19, Missouri 8. Wrong on the winner and against the spread, correct on the o/u.

Texas A&M at Vanderbilt (Texas A&M favored by 6 1/2, o/u 43) – PREDICTION: Texas A&M 31, Vanderbilt 21. ACTUAL: Texas A&M 25, Vanderbilt 0. Correct on the winner and against the spread, wrong on the o/u.

UNC Charlotte at Kentucky (Kentucky favored by 24, o/u 55 1/2) – PREDICTION: Kentucky 42, UNC Charlotte 10. ACTUAL: Kentucky 58, Charlotte 10. Correct on winner and against the line, incorrect on o/u. Charleston Southern at Alabama (no line) – PREDICTION: Alabama 49, Charleston Southern 0. ACTUAL: Alabama 56, Charleston Southern 6. We finished with a flourish, correct on the winner.

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