The nerds in the Almost Perfect Picks Department at BamaMag.com had long faces when they got back to work early Monday morning. One thing they didn’t need to spend much time on was evaluating their performance of the previous week.
“If we’d only had a few games with different scores, we would have been fine,” was the lame excuse of Geek No. 1 (we don’t know their names, but we know them when we see them).
Even when they got the correct winner, which was only 4-6, they were off between a little and a lot on the other aspects of their picks, against the point spread (line) and the over-under (combined points by both teams).
Here are the cold, hard facts.
They missed the Vanderbilt upset of Georgia (okay, we’ll grant that so did almost everyone else) and the difficult-to-predict Ole Miss at Arkansas games. They got a “push” on the Mississippi State at BYU game last Friday because the Bulldogs lost by the predicted 7 points, but otherwise missed against the line on every other game. As for the over-under, which has been a strength of the APP, they were only 2-4.
Through the first seven weeks of the regular season, the APP is 53-10 in picking straight up winners, but 20-35 against the point spread and 29-28 vs. the over-under.
They get to try it again this week, but there is another slate of difficult games. They can’t be feeling too good about their chances.
We might put a new sign on the APP Situation Room: “Almost Imperfect Picks Department.”