Analysis: 15 years of Arizona State local recruiting efforts

Local recruiting has presented as a significant headwind to success at Arizona State over at least the last 15 years. Here's a look at each class in the state over that span.

With National Signing Day approaching we wanted to take a look at 15 years of in-state high school recruiting — no junior college prospects included — with a focus on Arizona State. 

2016: Five Arizona prospects with four/five star designation (Byron Murphy, N’Keal Harry, Garrett Rand, Connor Murphy, Chase Lucas) 12 three-stars, one of whom is committed to/signed with ASU (Marshal Nate). 

2015: Four prospects with four/five star designation (Christian Kirk, Keenan Walker, Cassius Peat, Dedrique Young) 13 three stars recruits, three of whom signed with ASU (Bryce Perkins, Steve Miller, Cade Cote)

2014: Seven prospects with four/five star designation (Kyle Allen, Casey Tucker, Jalen Brown, Mark Andrews, Cameron Denson, Tyler Whiley, Qualen Cunningham) 18 three stars, two of whom signed with ASU (Ismael Murphy-Richardson, Quinn Bailey)

2013: Six prospects with four/five star designation (Priest Willis, Devon Allen, Chans Cox, Cole Luke, Kenny Lacy, Tyler Bruggman) 12 three stars, two of whom signed with ASU (Grant Martinez, Kisima Jagne). Most overrated: Chans Cox, Priest Willis. Most underrated: Darrell Garretson (a guy I loved and would have pushed for higher than two-stars)

2012: Five prospects with four/five star designation (Andrus Peat, Davonte Neal, D.J. Foster, Connor Brewer, Reggie Daniels) 12 three stars, one of whom signed with ASU (Jaxon Hood). Most overrated: Davonte Neal. Most underrated: Paul Perkins, Avery Moss. 

2011: Seven prospects with four/five star designation (Christian Westerman, Brett Hundley, Andre Yruretagoyena, Cyrus Hobbi, Todd Peat, Kelvin Fisher, Tyler Johnstone) 9 three stars, including one who signed with ASU (Mo Latu) and Vi Teofilo was a two-star. Most overrated: Cyrus Hobbi, Todd Peat, Kelvin Fisher. Most underrated: Ka’Deem Carey, Vi Teofilo. 

2010: Four prospects with four/five star designation (Nick Roland, Marquise Flowers, Devon Carrington, Laurence Gibson) 15 three stars, four of whom signed with ASU (Jordan McDonald, Josh Fulton, Ramon Abreu, Taylor Walstad). Nobody significantly overrated or underrated when factoring in unknown of injuries. 

2009: Five prospects with four/five star designation (Devon Kennard, Corey Adams, Craig Roh, Adam Hall, Taylor Lewan) 12 three stars, four of whom signed with ASU (Anthony Jones, Kody Koebensky, Jamal Miles Shane McCullen) as well as two-stars Max Smith and Marcus Washington. Most overrated: Craig Roh. Most underrated: Taylor Lewan, even as a four-star, Markus Wheaton, Trent Murphy. 

2008: Seven prospects with four/five star designation (Gerell Robinson, Jamal Womble, Sean Renfree, Dion Jordan, Covaughn Deboskie, Zach Schlink, Jeff Locke) 15 three stars, six of whom signed with ASU (Steve Figueroa, Zeb Toigai, Jarrell Barbour, Keelan Johnson, Deveron Carr, Patrick Johnson) Most overrated: Jamal Womble. Most underrated: Dion Jordan, even as a four-star.

2007: Four prospects with four/five star designation (Everson Griffin, Kris O’Down, Jaivario Burkes, Kerry Taylor) 12 three stars, two of whom signed with ASU (T.J. Simpson, James Brooks) and one two-star who signed with ASU (Colin Parker). Most overrated: Kerry Taylor. Most underrated: Three stars Prince Amukamara, Cameron Jordan (both first-round NFL picks). 

2006: Two prospects with four/five star designation(Jermaine Williams, John Romero) 9 three stars two of whom signed with ASU (Kyle Williams, Jon Hargis) as well as two-star Gerald Munns. Most overrated: John Romero. Most underrated: Three-star Kyle Williams, two-star Dontay Moch.

2005: Four prospects with four/five star designation (Ekom Udofia, Xavier Smith, Terry Longbons, Daniel Borg) 6 three stars, three of whom signed with ASU (Chris McGaha, Keegan Herring, Richard Tuitu’u) as well as two-star Dexter Davis. Most overrated: Terry Longbons, Daniel Borg. Most underrated: Dexter Davis. 

2004: Two prospects with four/five star designation (Zach Miller, Allen Smith) 8 three-stars, three of whom signed with ASU (Myrio Davis, Uriah Marshall, Andrew Pettes) as well as two-stars David Smith and Adam Vincent. Most overrated: none. Most underrated: none.

2003: Three prospects with four/five star designation (Michael Braunstein, Kyle Caldwell, Mikal Brewer) 3 three stars, two of whom signed with ASU (Mike Pollak, Brett Palmer) as well as two-star Brent Miller. Most overrated: Mikal Brewer. Most underrated: none.

2002: Seven prospects with four/five star designation (Quinton McCoy, Mike Nixon, Joel Filani, Loren Howard, Andre Bailey, Robert James, Nick Johnson) 3 thee stars, one of whom signed with ASU (Randy Hill) as well as two-stars Kellen Bradley, Deandre Johnson, Mike Talbot, Stephen Berg and J.W. Lucas. Most overrated: Quinton McCoy. Most underrated: Deuce Lutui (two-stars)

Arizona State signees out of Arizona high schools 2002-2016 (with 2016 projected)

A total of 15 out of 72 4/5 stars (average of 1.0 per year with 4.8 per year in Arizona) signed with ASU out of high school

A total of 37 of 163 3-star prospects signed with ASU out of high school (many who did not sign with ASU never had a scholarshp offer from the program)

Analysis

ASU did not offer all 72 of the state’s four and five star prospects over the last 15 years, but did offer scholarships to at least 65 of the 72 such prospects. At least half of the 163 3-star prospects in Arizona were not offered by the Sun Devils over the same span. ASU’s had a much better success rate with 3-star recruits it has offered because the competition hasn’t tended to be as stiff. It has been proven that four-star prospects in Arizona have frequently underachieved or even been busts in college, but it’s still essential for ASU to recruit the state more successfully than it has. There are few, if any, examples of elite national programs that maintain a level of true prominence without successfully owning their own recruiting territory. ASU’s local recruiting struggles have persisted under Todd Graham, a coach who has landed five of about 25 offered in-state four/five star local prospects in 2012-16 despite averaging an impressive 8.5 wins per season. It is a rate that is static from the decade-plus span prior to Graham’s arrival, though as long as ASU does sign committed in-state four-star recruits N’Keal Harry and Chase Lucas next Wednesday, it would be a 40 percent success rate, the best ASU’s done in a class with more than two such prospects since 2002. The depth and breadth of Arizona's talent pool has increased in recent years and that trend is expected to continue over the long term. ASU will continue to need to have greater success in its local recruiting efforts in order to improve its overall talent and odds of sustained success. 


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