Breakdown: Arizona vs. Oregon State

Arizona will get Oregon State Sunday night in Tucson. Read on for a complete positional breakdown of the game, including statistics, a score prediction, and more.



Oregon State at Arizona
Feb. 9 at 5 pm
TV: Pac-12
McKale Center

ARIZONA

OREGON STATE
Overall Record 22-1 (.955) 13-9 (.591)
Location Record 15-0 (1.000) at home 2-6 (.250) on the road
Scoring/G: PF&PA(Rank) 73.5 (132) 56.8 (5) 77.3 (47) 74.3 (276)
Rebound Margin/G: RM(Rank) 9.5 (6) 1.4 (151)
Steals/G:
S(Rank)
5.7 (224) 5.3 (267)
Assists/G: A(Rank)
15.1 (43) 14.2 (76)
Field-Goal Percentage: FG%(Rank) 47.3 (44) 48.7 (16)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 3FG%(Rank) 35.9 (118) 41.7 (3)
Field-Goal Percentage Against: FG%(Rank) 37.6 (6) 43.5 (172)
Ranking: Coaches' Poll #3 N/A
Ranking:
AP Poll
#2 N/A

RPI

2 (.6867) 91 (.5489)
Point Guard

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PG: T.J. McConnell (6-1, 195, Jr.) vs. Hallice Cooke (6-3, 185, Fr.)

Cooke is pretty decent, especially for a freshman. He makes one of his two three-point shots per game and does not turn the ball over much. Cooke has scored in double figures his last three games, including a 20-point effort against UCLA in which he made four three-pointers. Arizona has to account for him behind the arc, but he should not be the type of player to go off. On the other hand, McConnell needs to be more confident. He is a good player that is struggling with the idea of being left open and instead of hesitating, needs to get the shot off in rhythm. He's the better point guard here and needs to act like it.

Shooting Guard

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
SG: Nick Johnson (6-3, 200, Jr.) vs. Roberto Nelson (6-4, 198, Sr.)

Nelson is having a great season and deserves credit for his 22 points, 3 assists, and 3 boards per game. He turns the ball over about as much as he gets an assist, but Oregon State can live with that because of his scoring ability. He has scored in double figures in every game he has been healthy in this season, but has put up some stinks against teams like Colorado (5-14), UCLA (2-8), and a few others. Nick Johnson is struggling offensively and there is no way to make his shooting percentage something good. The bright side is that his defense is still there and he is a good enough player to get out of that slump. We would be surprised if Nelson had an efficient game and we just get the feeling that Johnson is going to bounce back on Sunday.

Small Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (6-7, 215, Fr.) vs. Langton Morris-Walker (6-5, 216, So.)

There has been a major minute increase for Morris-Walker as of late, but that does not mean there has been a change in production. He isn't a very good shooter and while Morris-Walker is able to get on the glass a bit, there isn't much else going on here. Hollis-Jefferson started last game and finished with 14 and 10. He was actually the best player on the court at times and really saved Arizona in some crucial moments. This is a good defensive matchup for him and another one in which he should be able to get to the basket with success.

Power Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PF: Aaron Gordon (6-9, 225, Fr.) vs. Eric Moreland (6-10,218, Jr.)

I'm actually a big fan of Moreland, but his offense has not been good since he has been back. Yes, I know that Gordon's is awful as well (especially at the line), but Gordon does everything else better. He is a better true rebounder, much better defender, and better passer. Moreland is not a bad player by any means and has the potential to have a good game. However, he is only shooting 39 percent from the field after hitting 57 percent of his attempts last season. If two players are in an offensive slump and Gordon is one of them, he is a good enough defender where we are going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Center

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
C: Kaleb Tarczewski (7-0, 235, So.) vs. Angus Brandt (6-10, 246, Sr.)

Brandt is more of a finesse player than anything, as his four rebounds per game show. He can shoot it a bit and that is a concern, but it is nothing that Tarczewski shouldn't be able to handle. This would be another good game for Arizona to go to Tarczewski early and often in order to set a pace and take advantage of Oregon State's zone. We wouldn't be surprised if Brandt got into some foul trouble because he does not like the physicality of what Arizona tends to bring. We have said this before, but this is a good opportunity for Arizona's big man.

Bench

ADVANTAGE: Even
Bench: Devon Collier is the best player coming off the bench in this one, but it is a bit misleading because he is averaging 26 minutes and is basically a starter. Still, he puts up 14 points and 6 rebounds per game and has the ability to give Arizona some fits. This matchup is why Miller said that Matt Korcheck is going to play some, because he has the size to at least put a body on Collier. Beyond Collier, there isn't much. Sure, Oregon State uses two or even three more players, but they are basically the equivalent of Jordin Mayes, who Arizona does not play anymore. Gabe York and Elliott Pitts are good enough to make sure this isn't a big advantage for the Beavers.
Coaching

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Coaching: Sean Miller vs. Craig Robinson

If Oregon State somehow pulls off this upset, it won't be because of coaching. Robinson is one of the worst coaches in the conference and you have to wonder how much longer he will be in Corvalis. Recruiting is half the battle and he has not had much success there either. Miller has a tough task without Brandon Ashley, but he is certainly a good enough coach to put Arizona in a position to win.

Outcome

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
67 58
This has the potential to be another ugly game. Arizona looked out of sorts at times against Oregon, but a few shots here and there and it doesn't look nearly as ugly. Oregon State is a bigger team, but actually not a very good squad on the glass. Cook, Nelson, and Brandt don't rebound nearly as well as they should and Arizona is likely to attack the glass a bit more in this one. The beavers are not good, but there is enough talent and energy there to be dangerous. Still, with the Wildcats at home and not having a drop off on defense, it will be hard for Oregon State to win.


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