Breakdown: Arizona vs. Stanford

Arizona will go for an undefeated home record on Sunday night against Stanford. Read on for a complete positional breakdown, statistics, and more.



Stanford at Arizona
Mar. 2 at 6 pm
TV: ESPNU
McKale Center

ARIZONA

STANFORD
Overall Record 26-2 (.929) 18-9 (.667)
Location Record 17-0 (1.000) at home 6-4 (.600) on the road
Scoring/G: PF&PA(Rank) 73.4 (108) 57.9 (5) 75.2 (74) 69 (139)
Rebound Margin/G: RM(Rank) 8.9 (5) 2.7 (102)
Steals/G:
S(Rank)
5.8 (214) 5.2 (272)
Assists/G: A(Rank)
15.1 (42) 12.4 (205)
Field-Goal Percentage: FG%(Rank) 47 (54) 46.6 (63)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 3FG%(Rank) 35.3 (129) 38 (47)
Field-Goal Percentage Against: FG%(Rank) 37.9 (5) 41.5 (84)
Ranking: Coaches' Poll #3 N/A
Ranking:
AP Poll
#3 N/A

RPI

2 (.6794) 41 (.5883)
Point Guard

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PG: T.J. McConnell (6-1, 195, Jr.) vs. Chasson Randle (6-2, 185, Jr.)

Randle can be completely hot or extremely cold, but he is guardable and that is why Arizona was able to successfully shut him down in the first meeting. He is going to get his shots off whether they are good or bad and McConnell held him to 3-15 shooting and only allowed him to get three assists. On the other hand, Randle had difficulty guarding McConnell, who finished with 11 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 0 turnovers. With the way McConnell has been playing as of late, there aren't many point guards in the entire country that would have an advantage over him and certainly not Randle.

Shooting Guard

ADVANTAGE: Stanford
SG: Gabe York (6-3, 180, So.) vs. Anthony Brown (6-6, 215, Jr.)

In the initial meeting, Johnson guarded Brown, but a lot has changed since then. York now gets the challenge of guarding him and Brown definitely has potential. He generally takes good shots and has good size for a shooting guard, which is something that York could struggle with. On the other hand, Brown may have some difficulty guarding York coming around screens due to that same size. We could see Arizona going a little bigger in this game, which means York won't be guarding Brown a ton. Still, this is a relatively even matchup, although Brown's overall potential gives him the advantage over York.

Small Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
SF: Nick Johnson (6-3, 200, Jr.) vs. Josh Huestis (6-7, 230, Sr.)

Arizona had the perfect defensive strategy against Huestis in the first meeting, which was to completely take away the lane and force him to become a jump shooter. Huestis went 5-16 because he is not a shooter and that's what he was relegated to. Of course, Aaron Gordon guarded him in the first meeting and that is different this time around. Like we said above, we think Arizona goes bigger here. Still, Johnson is capable of guarding bigger players and he is back to scoring nicely. We're going to give him the advantage with the belief that Huestis is a very good player.

Power Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PF: Aaron Gordon (6-9, 225, Fr.) vs. Dwight Powell (6-10, 240, Sr.)

This is going to be a fun one. Gordon's offense has been very good the past two games due in large part to Arizona getting him out in transition, which is where he excels. Powell was an average player in the first meeting and that was with Brandon Ashley guarding him. No offense to Ashley, but Gordon is a much better defender. Powell is obviously good in his own right, but he is not in the type of matchup that will allow him to dominate. We see Gordon giving him major fits on Sunday and thus getting the advantage.

Center

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
C: Kaleb Tarczewski (7-0, 235, So.) vs. Stefan Nastic (6-11, 245, Jr.)

Nastic outplayed Tarczewski in the first meeting, as it was one of his worst performances of the season. With the way Tarczewski has progressed since then we would be surprised if that happens again. Tarczewski now knows what Nastic is capable of doing and we're guessing that he comes out aggressive and more than holds his own. What's scary is the jumper that Tarczewski has shown the past few games. If that is legitimately becoming a part of his offense, he becomes extremely difficult to guard. Tarczewski's responsibility is mostly going to be on the glass, because Stanford is one of the biggest teams in the conference.

Bench

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Bench: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is going to get 30 minutes in this game and much of that has to do with Stanford's size. It makes sense to put him on Huestis, Gordon on Powell, and then move Johnson to the two to guard Brown. We would assume that is what you will see for the majority of the game, but it depends on how it plays out. Stanford is not a deep team by any means and Elliott Pitts is probably just as good as a guy like Robbie Lemons or Marcus Allen. In the first meeting, Gabe York's five points was double the entire Stanford bench. We don't see anything being much different this time around.
Coaching

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Coaching: Sean Miller vs. Johnny Dawkins

Arizona is one win away from winning the outright Pac-12 title. Although Arizona has plenty of talent, Miller lost his starting power forward and still successfully kept the defense among the best in the country while redesigning the offense to get out in transition more. Dawkins is close to saving his job by making the NCAA tournament, but that does not make him a good coach. We don't like putting a guy like Dawkins down, but this is one of Arizona's biggest advantages.

Outcome

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
74 62
Prediction: Arizona's offense is clicking on all cylinders and the Wildcats have looked close to unbeatable in the past two games. Stanford is better than both Colorado and California, but likely still not good enough. Miller will probably go with the bigger lineup and the athleticism and defensive ability will be too much for the Cardinal to handle. We do see this being close for a bit, because Stanford has good size and actually matches up with Arizona relatively well. With that being said, Arizona has a chance to win the Pac-12 title, it's Senior Day, and it just has too much going for it right now to lose this game.


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