Breakdown: Arizona vs. Oregon

Arizona will travel to Oregon for a late game on Thursday night. Read on to find out more about the game, including statistics, a position breakdown, and a score prediction.


Arizona at Oregon
Jan. 8 at 8:30 pm
TV: Pac-12 Network
Matthew Knight Arena

ARIZONA

OREGON
Overall Record
13-1 (.929)
11-3 (.786)
Location Record
1-1 (.500) on the road
10-1 (.909) at home
Scoring/G: PF&PA(Rank)
76.3 (35)
60.3 (55)
78.8 (23)
67.6 (212)
Rebound Margin/G: RM (Rank)
6.7 (38)
7.4 (29)
Steals/G:
S (Rank)
8.4 (40)
5.9 (231)
Assists/G: A(Rank)
15.3 (54)
17.4 (12)
Field-Goal Percentage: FG%(Rank)
50.1 (14)
45.7 (79)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 3FG%(Rank)
37.4 (68)
35.4 (129)
Field-Goal Percentage Against: FG%(Rank)
39.4 (70)
37.6 (25)
Ranking:
Coaches' Poll
#6
N/A
Ranking:
AP Poll
#7
N/A
Ranking: KenPom
9 (.9246)
60 (.7570)
RPI
13 (.6399)
95 (.5462)
Point Guard

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PG: PG: T.J. McConnell (6-1, 195, Sr.) vs. Casey Benson (6-3, 185, Fr.)

The majority of Benson’s shots come from behind the arc, but he does not take a lot of them. Oregon basically asks Benson to run the offense and try to be as efficient as possible. He has 39 assists to only 14 turnovers, so he has done a nice job of that. McConnell is a better defensive point guard and better overall, so this is actually one of Arizona’s biggest advantages.

Shooting Guard

ADVANTAGE: Oregon
SG: Stanley Johnson (6-7, 245, Fr.) vs. Joseph Young (6-2, 185, Sr.)

The guess is that Rondae is going to see most of his defensive work on Young, but Johnson is going to get a shot as well. Young is probably the more prolific scorer, but he also takes 15 shots per game to average 20 points. As a comparison, Johnson averages 14 points on nine shots per outing. Young is going to get his even if he has to take too many shots to do it. We’re going to give him an advantage because of that, but we actually don’t think he is much better than Johnson.

Small Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (6-7, 220, So.) vs. Dillon Brooks (6-6, 205, Fr.)

Brooks has been one of the more surprising freshmen in the country, having scored in single digits only once this season. He has had some fantastic efforts, including 24 points against Illinois. We thought Brooks was solid in high school, but really did not see this coming. Hollis-Jefferson is going to be able to guard him defensively, but we’re not sure we can say the same for Brooks guarding Rondae. Even if Johnson guards Brooks, he shouldn't be overmatched.

Power Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PF: Brandon Ashley (6-9, 230, Jr.) vs. Elgin Cook (6-6, 206, Jr.)

Cook is kind of a feast or famine type of player in the sense that he is extremely inconsistent. Ashley bounced back nicely against ASU, but got into some foul trouble and that could be a concern on the road. Cook is not much stronger than him and Ashley should be able to stay in front of Cook, especially when you consider he is not a shooter. It is important that Ashley gets established early, as Cook tends to struggle with fouls.

Center

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
C: Kaleb Tarczewski (7-0, 245, Jr.) vs. Dwayne Benjamin (6-7, 200, Jr.)

This is interesting because Oregon basically does not play a center. Tarczewski is obviously the bigger man here and we believe the Ducks will show some zone in order to counter Arizona’s size. The Wildcats would be smart to get the ball to Tarczewski early, but that appears to be easier said than done this season. Benjamin is only going to get about 20 minutes against Arizona and will likely have a minimal impact.

Bench

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Bench: Jordan Bell is going to break the school record for blocked shots in a season and it could come against Arizona, as he only needs a handful more. He is extremely athletic and get a lot of his points and rebounds off of hustle plays. Ahmaad Rorie is a decent freshman, but not a guy who should be able to give the Wildcats major fits. Gabe York is just as good as Rorie and Arizona has plenty to keep Bell in check.
Coaching

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Coaching: Sean Miller vs. Dana Altman

The Ducks could have been off to an awful start and people would have understood considering the off-season they had. Instead, Altman has Oregon with some good wins and only three losses. It feels like the Ducks tends to give the Wildcats good games, but we still give Miller the edge here.

Outcome

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
70
64
Prediction: This is a scarier game than some may think. It’s not easy to play at Oregon and the Ducks have enough individual talent to make things interesting. In addition, Oregon runs a lot of isolation sets and the UNLV game showed the potential for what that can do to Arizona. My gut tells me this is a close game throughout, but McConnell makes enough plays later in the game to help Arizona pull away.

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