Breakdown: Arizona vs. Oregon

Arizona will play Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game on Saturday. Read on to find out more about the game, including a positional breakdown, statistics, and score prediction.


Oregon vs. Arizona
Mar 17 at 8 pm
TV: ESPN
MGM Grand

ARIZONA

OREGON
Overall Record
29-3 (.906)
25-8 (.758)
Location Record
5-0 (1.000) on neutral court
3-2 (.600) on neutral court
Scoring/G: PF&PA(Rank)
76.6 (20)
58.9 (17)
76.6 (21)
70.7 (281)
Rebound Margin/G: RM (Rank)
8.7 (3)
2.4 (99)
Steals/G:
S (Rank)
7.2 (67)
5.7 (227)
Assists/G: A(Rank)
14.1 (69)
14.7 (44)
Field-Goal Percentage: FG%(Rank)
49.1 (5)
46.2 (57)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 3FG%(Rank)
35.6 (111)
35.8 (104)
Field-Goal Percentage Against: FG%(Rank)
39.2 (28)
41.7 (111)
Ranking:
Coaches' Poll
#5
N/A
Ranking:
AP Poll
#6
N/A
RPI
7 (.6543)
29 (.5909)
Point Guard

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PG: T.J. McConnell (6-1, 195, Sr.) vs. Jalil Abdul-Bassit (6-4, 187, Sr.)

McConnell badly wants to guard Young, but that isn't likely to happen. Oregon does not start a true point guard any more, though it should not matter much. Abdul-Bassit is not a big enough offensive threat to McConnell and we also aren't very confident the Ducks have an answer for him defensively. Don't think for a second McConnell losing out on the Player of the Year award won't act as motivation here.
Shooting Guard

ADVANTAGE: Even
SG: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (6-7, 220, So.) vs. Joseph Young (6-2, 185, Sr.)

This is going to be fun. Hollis-Jefferson has been on a tear defensively and Joseph Young is carrying Oregon on his back. Hollis-Jefferson has shut him down twice this season, but it can't happen again if the Ducks are going to have any chance. Young may get his points, but if it is on 30 percent shooting from the field, Arizona will take that all day. We would be shocked if Young does to Arizona what he did to Colorado and Utah.
Small Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
SF: Stanley Johnson (6-7, 245, Fr.) vs. Dillon Brooks (6-6, 205, Fr.)

You can add Brooks to the list of guys that can't guard Johnson man to man. The Ducks don't play a lot of zone, which is one of the reasons they have been blown out twice. Johnson is playing really well these past few games because he has generally been more patient and letting the offense come to him. Not only that, but his defense has been just fine as well.
Power Forward

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
PF: Brandon Ashley (6-9, 230, Jr.) vs. Elgin Cook (6-6, 206, Jr.)

There aren't many teams that are going to beat Arizona when Ashley is playing like he did on Friday. He has had some success against Oregon this season and considering the Ducks lack size, he should continue to be aggressive. Ideally, Ashley's jumper is falling and he draws out the minimal size Oregon has. Cook has been playing very well and has scored in double digits in 15 of his last 16 matchups. This is not going to be an easy one for Ashley. He's the better player, but Arizona needs to be careful here.
Center

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
C: Kaleb Tarczewski (7-0, 245, Jr.) vs. Jordan Bell (6-9, 190, Fr.)

Tarczewski has yet to play well in this tournament and it will be difficult to turn it around in this game. He is a much better player than Bell and the size advantage is scary for Oregon, but Tarczewski may have trouble staying in the game due to the overall pace. As long as he is on the court, there's no reason for him not to dominate the glass. Bell isn't playing well the past few weeks and it's unlikely to change against Arizona.
Bench

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Bench: Gabe York is just fine when his shot is falling and Elliott Pitts has been fine. Dusan Ristic is getting exposed on defense this weekend and Oregon could look to exploit that. The Ducks' offer up Dwayne Benjamin and he has ability. Beyond that, Casey Benson will get some minutes and it's still not going to be as good as Arizona's bench.
Coaching

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
Coaching: Sean Miller vs. Dana Altman

Dana Altman is doing a great job with Oregon, but it's hard to give him an advantage here until he proves he can help the Ducks not get blown out by Arizona. Miller got over the UCLA hump on Friday and should have Arizona prepared.

Outcome

ADVANTAGE: Arizona
83
70
Prediction: Oregon has been playing great, but it still does not match up well with Arizona. Unless Young goes off, we just don't see where the Ducks are getting their points from and how they are going to defend Arizona. It may be close for a half, but the Wildcats likely use the home crowd and defense to the Pac-12 title.

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