We look at the teams in reverse order.
USC (10-14, 3-10) The Trojans have to win the Pac-10 Tournament to get in the NCAA Tournament and even a bid in the Conference Tourney is unlikely. The Trojans are two games out of eighth and have an uphill battle to get in.
Oregon (12-9, 4-8) The Ducks have a decent RPI (43), but are scuffling. If Oregon wins it's remaining six Pac-10 games it would be 18-9 and 10-8 in the Pac, good enough for a bid. Even 5-1 down the stretch would likely earn a bid. Anything less and they need to do a lot of work in the Pac-10 Tourney.
Washington State (10-12, 5-8) The problem with WSU is a losing overall record. Even a 5-0 finish would put them at just 15-12 overall. Their RPI is bad (88), but a win over Arizona would help. More than likely they need to go 4-1 and win two games in the Pac-10 Tourney. That would put them at 16-14, but have them 6-4 in their final 10.
Arizona State (16-9, 5-8) The Devils will look back upon their two losses to USC and wonder what could have been. Had they even split they would be 17-8 and a more respectable 6-7 in league play. As it stands ASU may only need to go 3-2 down the stretch and win one game in the conference tourney. That would make them 20-12, 10-10 in the Pac-10. More than likely they will have to get a win over either Washington or Arizona to boost their decent RPI of 57.
California (12-10, 5-7) The Bears are in a tough spot. They have done well in the Conference, but not well enough. Being two games over .500 overall, and with a low RPI (73), it is just tough to see the Bears getting an at-large. They do have six regular season games left, plus the conference tourney to boost their record. A serious win streak could really help their cause. 6-0 would get them in, but do you really see that happening? 4-2 and at least a tourney win is probably the bare minimum to even start considering the Bears. Anything less and there is no chance.
Oregon State (14-9, 6-6) Now things get interesting. The Beavers have a very low RPI (107) but the win over Washington was huge. They have six games left and if they can get to 20 wins, they should be in. 19 may actually be the magic number. A 4-2 finish, plus a sole win in the Pac-10 Tourney makes them 19-12, but would give them an 7-3 record in their final 10. Even 3-3 with a Pac-10 Tourney win would make them 6-4 down the stretch and at least under consideration. They probably need to be over .500 in league play or .500 with a win over Arizona at McKale.
UCLA (13-8, 7-6) UCLA still has a non-conference game with Notre Dame and that could be huge. Their 38 RPI puts them in serious consideration. A win over the Irish and a 3-2 finish probably make them a lock, regardless of what they do in the conference tourney. A loss to the Irish and they need an impressive finish to the season.
Stanford (13-9, 7-5) Will the committee give them slack because they started the season without a home court and now they have to play without Dan Grunfield? If so, they probably need to go a game over .500 to get in. Their RPI is okay at 44, but not great. A win over either Washington or UCLA would be key and wins over both would be huge.
Washington (20-4, 10-3) The Huskies are in. Even if they fail to win another game, they will get a bid. As it stands they are playing for seeding and an attempt to stay in the west. To do so they must beat Arizona at home and probably go further than the Wildcats in the conference tournament. Barring a total collapse they are looking at a seed between two and four, most likely a three.
Arizona (21-4, 11-2) The Wildcats are in the same boat as Washington, but they control their own destiny. A strong finish could see the Cats earn a one-seed, but more than likely they will be a two or three. If they win the regular season title outright, and advance to the finals of the conference finals, they should stay in the West Region. Two losses to Washington or the failure to win the Pac-10 regular season title, and they will be seeded elsewhere.
E-mail Brad at firstname.lastname@example.org