Tourney Watch: Pac-10

The Pac-10 is a tough conference to figure. It seems down, but UCLA, Washington and Arizona have had some big wins. Right now it looks as if only four teams are getting into the NCAA Tournament, but six have at least an outside shot.

UCLA
Record: 22-6 (12-4/1st in Pac-10)
RPI:16
UCLA is in the driver's seat to win the Pac-10, but have two tough games in the Bay Area to close things out. They are finally getting healthy and have the Pac-10 Tournament in their hometown.
STATUS: The Bruins are in. They are fighting for seeding. My guess is they land at a 3-6.

Washington
Record: 22-5 (11-5/T2nd in Pac-10)
RPI:32
The Huskies are in great shape. Even if they lose out they'd still be 22-8, good enough for a bid. Their RPI is not great, but good enough.
STATUS: In. Like the Bruins, the Huskies are playing for seeding.

California
Record: 17-8 (11-5/T2nd in Pac-10)
RPI:58
Cal should be in, but can't rest on the laurels. They are 5-2 in their last seven, which means a win or two will really boost their ‘last 10' mark heading into Selection Sunday. The RPI is not great, but no team with 11 wins in conference has been snubbed. Cal would feel a little safer with 12 or 13 conference wins.
STATUS: Cal is likely in, but they will feel better with another win or two. Look for them to get an eight or nine seed and then give a top team fits in the second round.

Arizona
Record: 17-10 (10-6/T4th in Pac-10)
RPI:19
The Cats are in good shape, but can't rest on their laurels. The RPI is very good, but 18 or 19 wins would look a lot better. The Cats are 4-3 in their last seven so they can be anywhere from 4-6 to 9-1 in their last 10 depending on how long they last in the Pac-10 Tournament.
STATUS: One more win should do it. The Cats likely need to be an 18-win team to get in. The funny thing is they could be seeded anywhere from 11 to 5 depending on how they play the next two weekends.

Stanford
Record: 14-11 (10-6/T4thst in Pac-10)
RPI:88
The Cardinal have some work to do. Too many bad losses early in the year and a late season swoon does not help either. The Cardinal are just 3-4 in their last seven, so they will need wins in the Pac-10 Tournament to be over .500 in their last 10.
STATUS: Right now they are on the outside looking in. They probably need to get to the finals of the Pac-10 Tournament to get in.

USC
Record: 17-10 (8-8/5th in Pac-10)
RPI:110
USC is probably a year away. If they can get to 20 wins they have a shot, but a 110 RPI is rough. The fact they are 3-4 in their last seven does not help either. If they can win out and get a few wins in the Pac-10 Tournament, then they will get some consideration.
STATUS: It looks like the Trojans will be in the NIT and getting ready for next season where they could be a team that has a shot at a top-three Pac-10 finish.

Oregon has an outside shot at the NIT. They need an appearance in the Conference Finals to get over .500 and get into the event.


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