Bowl Analysis 11-16-14

Ugly weekend for those hunting for a bowl. Georgia Southern fans need to hang up their bowl dream, they are staying home this year and looking likely that one Sun Belt is staying home.


As I explained last week. I use two models for projecting. Massey Ratings to determine who will be eligible, and Jerry Palm to project slots that taken by the CFP teams and the teams placed in bowls by the Selection Committee. Using Massey, the number projected eligible is 79 and there are 76 spots, I think the real number is 80 because I expect Arkansas to win one more, only probable way to get to only 79 is if Cal beats Stanford, or if Cal loses, BYU has to beat Cal. Two weeks ago the Massey model had 80 eligible and last week 77. With the way games fell this week I have no doubt that 79 won’t be floor

Currently there are 60 teams eligible and 35 out (37 if you count transitional teams as out). Most people don’t have Buffalo out but they had two FCS games and cannot get to 7 wins. There are 21 teams one win from being eligible and 9 one loss from being out. There are a total of 30 schools remaining that can get eligible.

The Army-Navy problem is likely solved a week from Friday with a Navy win at USA.

Games to watch this week:
Maryland at Michigan. The model picks Michigan but a Maryland win probably takes Michigan out of the bowl picture.
Northwestern at Purdue. An upset by Purdue knocks Nortwestern out.
Oklahoma State at Baylor, a Cowboy upset makes them eligible.
Marshall at UAB. An upset by UAB knocks Marshall out of the access bowl but makes UAB eligible.
UTSA at WKU. Hilltoppers have to win this one or win at Marshall to get eligible.
Stanford at Cal. Winner is eligible. If Cal wins, Stanford has to win at UCLA. If Stanford wins Cal hosts BYU with one last chance.
Oregon State at Washington. Huskies are likely eligible with a loss because they have Washington State next, Oregon State with a loss would have to beat Oregon to get eligible.
Ole Miss at Arkansas. Win by Arkansas makes them eligible and creates possibility SEC only places two in CFP/Selection.

Bowls likely looking for teams: (*= confident spot is vacant)
Bitcoin St. Pete (ACC*)
Cactus (Big 12*) (MWC Back-up*)
Armed Forces (Army*)
New Orleans (MWC)

Conferences likely with excess teams:
AAC: one team, my guess is Temple is passed by AAC affiliated bowls
CUSA: one team, possibly two depending on access bowl. Right UAB looks like odd man out.
MAC: one team
PAC 12: one, possibly two
SEC: possibly one
Sun Belt: one

The good news is Cactus isn’t taking a Pac-12 to play a Pac-12. But Temple may well take the slot being the best name/market available. If MWC champ passes Marshall, expecting CUSA in New Orleans and CUSA in Armed Forces unless Pac-12 prefers playing in Fort Worth over St. Pete, in that case CUSA to St Pete.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
BOWLS: Miami Beach, Military, St Pete, Birmingham, Armed Forces (no published pick order). Also backs up Liberty and Independence
Teams Eligible: East Carolina, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF
Teams Out: Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UConn
Teams Alive: @5-4 Houston @5-5 Temple @4-6 USF
Teams Expected to be eligible: 6. Currently four eligible, the projected remaining wins of the others:
Houston is favored over Tulsa, @SMU
Temple is favored @Tulane
ANALYSIS: Weekend brought no notable changes. AAC should fill its five slots and will have a team available for a back-up. They have back-ups with Liberty and Independence.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
BOWLS: 1. Orange, 2. Citrus, 3. Russell Athletic, 4-7. Belk, Pinstripe, Sun, Music City, Tax Slayer 8-10. Military, Independence, Detroit. 11. St Pete Bitcoin. Also backs up Birmingham
Teams Eligible: Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, NC State, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami
Teams Out: Wake Forest and Syracuse
Teams Alive: @5-5 UNC and Va.Tech @4-6 Pitt and UVA.
Teams Expected to be eligible: 10. In addition to the 8 eligible, the following project to eligible with the anticipated wins:
North Carolina over NC State
Virginia Tech @Wake Forest and Virginia
ANALYSIS: ACC is projected two in CFP/Selection Committee Bowls. Notre Dame is available to be selected by ACC bowls making it 11 to be placed by ACC. ACC will be short in St. Pete. The model has been stuck at ten for a few weeks, Va.Tech snatched a key win and is going to win at least one of its remaining games, think UNC makes it as well. Revising my last week thoughts and expect ACC to cover everything except St. Pete.

BIG TEN
BOWLS: CFP/Selection Bowl (replacing Rose), Orange/Citrus, Outback, Holiday, Tax Slayer/Music City, Pinstripe, San Francisco, Detroit, Heart of Dallas/Armed Forces (this is expected order)
Teams Eligible: Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin
Teams Out: Purdue and Indiana
Teams Alive: @5-5 Michigan, @4-6 Illinois Northwestern
Teams Expected to be eligible: 11. They have 9 eligible.
Michigan over Maryland
Northwestern @Purdue Illinois
ANALYSIS: The model picks up Northwestern this week and Michigan. Last week I said the model had Michigan out and I wasn’t buying it. Big 10 should have two in selection bowls. Big 10 is going to cover all of its bowls unless Michigan or Northwestern stumbles.

BIG XII
BOWLS: CFP/Selection (replacing Sugar), Alamo, Russell Athletic, Texas, Liberty, Cactus (also backs up Armed Forces)
Teams Eligible: Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas
Teams out: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas
Teams Alive: @5-5 Oklahoma State
Teams Expected to be eligible: 6. The six currently eligible.
ANALYSIS: Baylor and TCU look to be in CFP/selection bowls. Cactus Bowl will be open and no team available for Armed Forces.

CONFERENCE USA
BOWLS: Bahamas, Boca Raton, Hawaii, Heart of Dallas, New Mexico (no published pick order). Also backs up Independence
Teams eligible: Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Rice, UTEP
Teams out: FIU, FAU, USM, UTSA, UNT
Teams Alive: @5-5 MTSU UAB, WKU @4-6 ODU (FCS transitional)
Teams Expected to be eligible: 7. In addition to the four eligible the following are projected to be eligible. MTSU over FAU
UAB @Southern Miss
WKU over UTSA
ANALYSIS: If Marshall wins out takes access bowl, CUSA has an extra team floating around. If Marshall loses or gets jumped by the MWC champion, CUSA has two left over. Of the three eligible the only one that you might look to stumble could be UAB.

MID-AMERICAN
BOWLS: 1. GoDaddy 2-5. Camellia, Potato, Boca Raton, Bahamas. Also backs up Poinsettia and Detroit
Teams Eligible: Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan
Teams Out: UMass, Miami, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State
Teams Alive: @5-5 Ohio @4-6 Akron Buffalo (has two FCS)
Teams Expected to be eligible: 6. In addition to the five eligible the following are projected to qualify. Ohio @Miami (OH)
ANALYSIS: MAC is going to have at least one more team than they have bowls.

MOUNTAIN WEST
BOWLS: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Hawaii, New Mexico, Potato, New Orleans (this is expected order). Also backs up Cactus
Teams Eligible: Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State, Air Force, Utah State
Teams Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, UNLV, New Mexico
Teams Alive: @5-5 San Diego State @4-6 Wyoming, Fresno
Teams Expected to be eligible: 6. In addition to the five eligible the following are projected to be eligible. San Diego State over San Jose State
ANALYSIS: On pace to cover their games with no one available to back-up Cactus. I think six eligible is right. If Boise State or Colorado State bumps into the access bowl, then expect them to be short in New Orleans.

PAC-12
BOWLS: 1. CFP/Selection (replacing Rose), 2. Alamo 3. Holiday 4. San Francisco 5. Sun 6. Las Vegas 7. Cactus
Teams Eligible: Oregon, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah
Teams Out: Washington State, Colorado
Teams Alive: @6-5 Washington (plays 13 games) @5-5 Cal, Stanford, Oregon State
Teams Expected to be eligible: 9. In addition to the six eligible the following are projected to be eligible. Washington over Oregon State @Washington State
Stanford over @Cal
Cal over BYU
ANALYSIS: This is shaping up to be a major disaster for G5 fans. Oregon looks like the only team to make the CFP/Selection Bowls and the winner of Stanford vs. Cal is guaranteed to give them enough teams to cover their bowls and Washington looks like a lock to get one more win insuring they have a spare team. If the model hits they are looking to have TWO teams looking for a bowl.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
BOWLS: 1. CFP/Selection (replacing Sugar) 2. Citrus 3-8. Outback, Texas, TaxSlayer, Music City, Belk, Liberty. 9. Birmingham 10. Independence
Teams Eligible: Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M
Teams Out: Vanderbilt.
Teams Alive: @5-4 Florida @5-5 Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee @5-6 Kentucky
Teams Expected to be eligible: 11. In addition to the eight teams eligible the following project to get eligible.
Florida over Eastern Kentucky
South Carolina over South Alabama
Tennessee over Mizzou @Vandy
ANALYSIS: They are projected to take three to CFP and Selection Bowls and while the model has them at 11, let’s get real, 11 is basically a lock and 12 is well within reach because I think Arkansas is going to win one of the remaining games. They are on pace to cover every bowl game and if they don’t place three in CFP/Selection they have a team left over.

SUN BELT
BOWLS: New Orleans, GoDaddy, Camellia
Teams Eligible: Arkansas State, Louisiana Lafayette, South Alabama (transitional Georgia Southern is only eligible if fewer than 76 are eligible after applying other exceptions)
Teams Out: New Mexico State, Troy, ULM, Idaho, Georgia State
Teams Alive: @5-5 Texas State Appalachian State (FCS transitional)
Teams Expected to be eligible: 4. Three with the following schools project to be eligible.
Texas State @Georgia State
ANALYSIS: Georgia Southern needs to start thinking about next year, there isn’t going to be a spot for them this year. This weekend was a disaster for G5 schools.

INDEPENDENTS
BOWLS: Notre Dame CFP/Host Bowl and some ACC bowls, Navy Poinsettia, BYU Miami Beach, Army Armed Force
Teams Eligible: Notre Dame, BYU
Teams Out: Army
Teams Alive: @5-5 Navy
Teams Expected to be eligible: 3. The following are expected to become eligible in addition to Notre Dame:
Navy @South Alabama Army
ANALYSIS: BYU should cover Miami Beach, Navy should cover Poinsettia, Armed Forces will be open.