Bowl Analysis 11-23-14

The past week went mostly poorly for the G5 schools hoping to gain an at-large position. The Sun Belt will have four actually eligible (Georgia Southern and App State are out) with only three slots and poor odds of placing a fourth.


Currently there are 71 teams eligible and two more guaranteed to be eligible because they are in winner gets eligible games so we are at 73. There are 37 out and counting transitional as out there are 40 out, add the two losers of the guaranteed eligibility for the winner games there are 42 out. There are currently 13 teams competing for the remaining 3 spots.

The Massey ratings project 81 teams will get eligible leaving five teams out. I use the Massey Ratings to determine who will be eligible, and Jerry Palm to project slots that taken by the CFP teams and the teams placed in bowls by the Selection Committee.

Games to watch this week:
Pitt at Miami. Pitt must win to get eligible and would make 11 from ACC.
Ohio at Miami(OH). Ohio needs a win to get eligible, Ohio is favored.
Akron at Kent. Akron needs a win to get eligible and is favored.
Hawaii at Fresno. Fresno must win to get eligible.
BYU at Cal. California must win to get eligible.
Oregon at Oregon State. Oregon State must win to be eligible
Tennessee at Vandy. Vols must win to get eligible
Kentucky at Louisville. UK must win to get eligible.


Bowls likely looking for teams: (*= confident spot is vacant)
Bitcoin St. Pete (ACC*)
Cactus (Big 12*) (MWC Back-up)
Armed Forces (Army*)


Conferences likely with excess teams:
AAC: one team, my guess is Temple is passed by AAC affiliated bowls
CUSA: one team, possibly two depending on access bowl. Right UAB looks like odd man out.
MAC: two teams
PAC 12: one
Sun Belt: one

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
BOWLS: Miami Beach, Military, St Pete, Birmingham, Armed Forces (no published pick order). Also backs up Liberty and Independence
Teams Eligible: East Carolina, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston
Teams Out: Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UConn, USF
Teams Alive: @5-5 Temple
Teams Expected to be eligible: 6. Currently five eligible, the projected remaining wins of the others:
Temple is favored @Tulane
ANALYSIS: It was no surprise Saturday. AAC should fill its five slots and will have a team available for a back-up. They have back-ups with Liberty and Independence.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
BOWLS: 1. Orange, 2. Citrus, 3. Russell Athletic, 4-7. Belk, Pinstripe, Sun, Music City, Tax Slayer 8-10. Military, Independence, Detroit. 11. St Pete Bitcoin. Also backs up Birmingham
Teams Eligible: Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, NC State, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami
Teams Out: Wake Forest and Syracuse
Teams Alive: @5-6 Va.Tech Pitt and Virginia.
Teams Expected to be eligible: 10. In addition to the 9 eligible, the following project to eligible with the anticipated wins:
Winner of Virginia at Virginia Tech is eligible ANALYSIS: ACC is projected two in CFP/Selection Committee Bowls. Notre Dame is available to be selected by ACC bowls making it 11 to be placed by ACC. ACC will be short in St. Pete. The model has been stuck at ten for a few weeks, Va.Tech snatched a key win and is going to win at least one of its remaining games, think UNC makes it as well. Revising my last week thoughts and expect ACC to cover everything except St. Pete.

BIG TEN
BOWLS: CFP/Selection Bowl (replacing Rose), Orange/Citrus, Outback, Holiday, Tax Slayer/Music City, Pinstripe, San Francisco, Detroit, Heart of Dallas/Armed Forces (this is expected order)
Teams Eligible: Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin
Teams Out: Purdue and Indiana
Teams Alive: @5-6 Michigan, Illinois Northwestern
Teams Expected to be eligible: 10. They have 9 eligible.
Winner Illinois at Purdue
ANALYSIS: Michigan now probably out so they have 10 eligible. With two probable selection bowl picks they cover everything on the nose

BIG XII
BOWLS: CFP/Selection (replacing Sugar), Alamo, Russell Athletic, Texas, Liberty, Cactus (also backs up Armed Forces)
Teams Eligible: Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas
Teams out: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas
Teams Alive: @5-6 Oklahoma State
Teams Expected to be eligible: 6. The six currently eligible.
ANALYSIS: Barring an Oklahoma State Mayhem win at OU, Baylor and TCU look to be in CFP/selection bowls. Cactus Bowl will be open and no team available for Armed Forces.

CONFERENCE USA
BOWLS: Bahamas, Boca Raton, Hawaii, Heart of Dallas, New Mexico (no published pick order). Also backs up Independence
Teams eligible: Marshall, MTSU, WKU, Louisiana Tech, Rice, UTEP
Teams out: FIU, FAU, USM, UTSA, UNT
Teams Alive: @5-6 UAB,
Teams Expected to be eligible: 7. In addition to the six eligible the following are projected to be eligible. UAB @Southern Miss
ANALYSIS: If Marshall wins out and takes access bowl, CUSA has an extra team floating around. If Marshall loses or gets jumped by the MWC champion, CUSA has two left over. A USM upset of UAB would reduce that by one.

MID-AMERICAN
BOWLS: 1. GoDaddy 2-5. Camellia, Potato, Boca Raton, Bahamas. Also backs up Poinsettia and Detroit
Teams Eligible: Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan
Teams Out: UMass, Buffalo, Miami, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State
Teams Alive: @5-6 Ohio, Akron
Teams Expected to be eligible: 7. In addition to the five eligible the following are projected to qualify. Ohio @Miami (OH)
Akron @Kent
ANALYSIS: MAC is going to have at least one more team than they have bowls. Neither bowl they back-up will be vacant.

MOUNTAIN WEST
BOWLS: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Hawaii, New Mexico, Potato, New Orleans (this is expected order). Also backs up Cactus
Teams Eligible: San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State, Air Force, Utah State
Teams Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico
Teams Alive: @5-6 Fresno
Teams Expected to be eligible: 7. In addition to the six eligible the following are projected to be eligible. Fresno over Hawaii
ANALYSIS: Fresno upset of Nevada changes the picture. On pace to cover their games with a team available to back-up Cactus if MWC doesn’t take Access slot, if they take Access then Cactus is vacant. If Colorado State or Boise State wins out they could be the Access Bowl pick. Two big games on that quest. Colorado State at Air Force and Utah State at Boise State. A Boise State win gives the division to Boise, if Utah State wins, the division goes to CSU unless Air Force wins, then USU takes it and Marshall probably takes Access by winning out.

PAC-12
BOWLS: 1. CFP/Selection (replacing Rose), 2. Alamo 3. Holiday 4. San Francisco 5. Sun 6. Las Vegas 7. Cactus
Teams Eligible: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah
Teams Out: Washington State, Colorado
Teams Alive: @5-6 Cal, Oregon State
Teams Expected to be eligible: 9. In addition to the eight eligible the following are projected to be eligible. Cal over BYU
ANALYSIS: Right now Oregon is projecting CFP and Arizona to a selection bowl. That leaves them with an extra team if Cal beats BYU as expected.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
BOWLS: 1. CFP/Selection (replacing Sugar) 2. Citrus 3-8. Outback, Texas, TaxSlayer, Music City, Belk, Liberty. 9. Birmingham 10. Independence
Teams Eligible: Missouri, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Teams Out: Vanderbilt.
Teams Alive: @5-6 Tennessee Kentucky
Teams Expected to be eligible: 12. In addition to the 11 teams eligible the following project to get eligible.
Tennessee @Vandy
ANALYSIS: Right now projected to place three in CFP/Selection. They should cover all their bowls on the nose.

SUN BELT
BOWLS: New Orleans, GoDaddy, Camellia
Teams Eligible: Arkansas State, Louisiana Lafayette, South Alabama, Texas State
Teams Out: New Mexico State, Troy, ULM, Idaho, Georgia State, App State, and Georgia Southern
Teams Alive: None
Teams Expected to be eligible: 4.
ANALYSIS: While App and Georgia Southern have enough wins neither can go unless there are less than 76 eligible teams and that is very unlikely.

INDEPENDENTS
BOWLS: Notre Dame CFP/Host Bowl and some ACC bowls, Navy Poinsettia, BYU Miami Beach, Army Armed Force
Teams Eligible: Notre Dame, BYU
Teams Out: Army
Teams Alive: @5-5 Navy
Teams Expected to be eligible: 3. The following are expected to become eligible in addition to Notre Dame:
Navy @South Alabama, Army
ANALYSIS: BYU should cover Miami Beach, Navy should cover Poinsettia, Armed Forces will be open.