Out-Performing Recruiting Rankings

One of the persistent debates among college football fans is the relevance of recruiting rankings. The question that is rarely answered effectively is how well the rankings match-up to performance.

David Woods of Bruin Report Online tried to quantify those rankings against hard numbers. The piece is very much UCLA oriented but it presents some interesting numbers.

You can read the full story here.

The final chart presents presents the teams rated 1-25 in recruiting class from 2008 to 2014 and then compares their performance in power ratings from 2012 to 2014. Of the top 25 in recruiting, all but eight ended up rated in the top 25 on the field. One of the eight is Nebraska who had the 25th best classes over the period but as a median their classes were 28th which was where they fell in median on-the-field ranking. The remainder of the under-achievers you could probably guess. It is littered with schools noted for coaching turmoil and some disappointing seasons: Texas, Florida, Michigan, Miami, Tennessee, Washington, and Arkansas.

In short, quite obviously well regarded talent does not mean much unless you have a staff capable of taking advantage of the talent.

Of greater interest to AState fans is this chart Woods put together.

TEAM

02-14 MEDIAN RECRUITING RANK

06-14 MEDIAN FINAL RANK

DIFFERENTIAL

1. Boise St.

66

10

+56

2. Navy

98

47

+51

3. Northern Illinois

104

53

+51

4. TCU

63

16

+47

5. Air Force

95

48

+47

6. Nevada

97

61

+36

7. Utah

66

31

+35

8. Tulsa

82

49

+33

9. Cincinnati

62

30

+32

10. BYU

55

32

+23

11. Missouri

37

16

+21

12. East Carolina

81

61

+20

13. Wisconsin

37

18

+19

14. Fresno St.

77

58

+19

15. Ohio

97

78

+19

16. Oregon St.

48

30

+18

17. Louisiana Tech

97

79

+18

18. UCF

73

56

+17

19. Rice

96

79

+17

20. Louisiana-Lafayette

106

89

+17

21. Oregon

22

7

+15

22. Troy

88

73

+15

23. Arkansas St.

105

91

+14

24. Kent St.

113

99

+14

25. Toledo

84

71

+13



The data compiled by Woods covers a big span of time, we now do our own research and look at recruiting rankings vs. the last four AState football teams.

Scout rating
2014 97
2013 110
2012 78
2011 102
2010 105
2009 106
2008 104
2007 82
Median class rating: 103 Average rating 98

Massey Composite Power Rating
2014 83
2013 74
2012 36
2011 46
Median 60 Average 60

AState football from 2011 to 2014 out-performed the median of its recruiting ranking by 43 spots and out-performed the average of its recruiting ranking by 83.

Breaking it down by season using the five classes making up each team:
2011 rated 46, recruiting median was 104. That team’s performance was 58 spots higher
2012 rated 36, recruiting median was 104. That team’s performance was 68 spots higher.
2013 rated 74, recruiting median was 105. That team’s performance was 31 spots higher.
2014 rated 83, recruiting median was 102. This year’s performance was 19 spots higher.