Sun Belt Tournament Scenarios
On the men’s side, AState is looking to break into the top eight seeds. Georgia Southern and ULM have clinched spots and can be no worse than a four seed. Georgia State has also clinched a spot and can be no worse than a five seed. The Cajuns have a clinched a spot and can be no worse than a six seed. UTA needs one win to clinch a spot.
That leaves three spots up for grabs. Appalachian State is out for APR penalties, leaving two others to be excluded.
UALR is currently in the sixth spot at 8-10. They have two games left traveling to UTA and ULL. Troy is 3 games back of UALR and cannot catch them. The Trojans have a one game lead over USA but USA swept the Trojans and will hold the tiebreaker. AState is a game and a half back of UALR but the Trojan sweep means UALR takes the tiebreaker. Texas State is also 1 ½ back and split with UALR. The tiebreaker probably comes down to TXST sweeping USA while USA swept UALR unless UALR can get a win on this road swing. The highest possible seed would be 4th.
USA holds the current seven spot at 7-11. They travel to AState and host Troy to finish the season. Their highest possible seed is six because UTA would hold the fifth place tiebreaker over them. They hold the tiebreaker over UALR and TXST holds the tiebreaker over USA. If AState wins on March 5, the Red Wolves hold the tiebreaker over USA, if USA wins, AState will still hold the tiebreaker thanks to the win over ULM. They hold the tiebreaker over Troy with a win March 7. Otherwise Troy wins thanks to a win over Georgia Southern.
Texas State is tied with AState for the 8th spot. A win by AState on Saturday gives the Red Wolves the season sweep and tiebreaker. If they beat AState then the tiebreaker comes down to whether ULM finishes ahead of Georgia State (AState takes tiebreaker) or Georgia State finishes ahead of ULM (TXST takes the tiebreaker). They hold the tiebreaker over USA and Troy and probably UALR.
AState is the other half of the tie at 8th. The Red Wolves could finish as high as 5th holding the tiebreaker over UTA if ULM stays ahead of Georgia State. UALR holds the tiebreaker over the Red Wolves. AState takes the tiebreaker over USA with a win on March 5 and likely keeps it even with a loss. AState can clinch the tiebreaker over TXST with a win, a loss makes the tiebreaker depend on where ULM and Georgia State finish with the Red Wolves winning if ULM comes out a head and TXST winning if GaSt finishes ahead. Troy is 1 ½ back of AState and could take the tiebreaker if Georgia Southern finishes ahead of ULM.
Troy has two games remaining hosting Georgia State and traveling to USA. Troy has the tiebreaker over USA no matter how the remaining games turn out. Texas State holds the tiebreaker over Troy. AState’s situation with Troy depends on Georgia Southern and ULM. The problem for Troy is the amount of ground to make up. If they upset Georgia State on Saturday, they are still a game and a half back of the TXST-AState winner. If they lose to Georgia State the best they can do is 6-14 and can finish no higher than 9th.
Right now it looks like Troy will probably join App on the sidelines for the conference tournament.
UALR travels to two schools they lost to at home so 8-12 is a possible outcome. USA has a fair chance to get to 8-12. TXST with a win over AState probably finishes 7-13, a loss makes 6-14 likely. Red Wolves all but clinch a spot with a win Saturday unless AState drops the final two and TXST wins out.
AState has clinched a tournament spot and third is the lowest possible seed.
The Red Wolves are a game and half back of UALR. If AState wins out ( at Texas State 10-7, host USA 2-16 and ULL 9-8)and UALR loses one (they play at UTA 9-8 and ULL 9-8) the Red Wolves and UALR would tie for first with AState winning the tiebreaker because of the sweep of Troy. AState is out of the hunt for first with two UALR wins, or one UALR win coupled with an AState loss, or two UALR losses coupled with two AState losses.
The Red Wolves could fall to third if Troy wins out (host Georgia State 7-10 at USA 2-16) and AState drops at least two of the remaining three. Troy is out of the hunt for second with any loss or two AState wins.
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