Nelson Chenault - USA Today Sports

Looking at the potential bowl eligibility situation for college football

Breaking down the current bowl situation

Two more Saturdays of college football left (not counting Army-Navy). Just like last week I am confident that 77 get eligible and won’t be surprised to get 79. Computer models are now on 78. Over the years the models in the final weeks have tended to underestimate the number eligible

Conference Look

American: Bowl ties: 7. Bowl Eligible: 7. Remaining teams not eliminated: 2

American really has six conference ties but Military Bowl played at Annapolis has a tie with Navy making it seven bowls. The American has the inside track to be the G5 Access bowl team so they will likely have 8 slots to fill.

Tulsa has to beat Tulane. East Carolina has to beat Cincinnati.

I expect Tulsa to make it. With Cincinnati reeling ECU looks good at home and may be a slight favorite. AAC may cover all its spots and have a team left over.

ACC: Bowl ties: 9. Bowl eligible: 8. Remaining teams not eliminated: 1.

The ACC had one team get eligible this week and had four eliminated. Virginia Tech is the only school left fighting to get eligible. The Hokies travel to Virginia.

Unless Virginia Tech stumbles at Virginia or the CFP pulls out a second team, the ACC should cover all of its bowls. If Notre Dame falls out of the CFP selected games the ACC could end up with more teams to place than slots.

Big XII: Bowl ties: 7. Bowl eligible: 6. Remaining teams not eliminated: 2.

 Texas has to win out playing Texas Tech and @Baylor. Kansas State has to win out playing @Kansas, and West Virginia their fate probably isn’t resolved until the last day of the season hosting West Virginia.

Texas is probably toast. If Kansas State comes up short the Heart of Dallas will be vacant.

Big 10: Bowl ties 10. Bowl eligible: 7. Remaining teams not eliminated: 4.

No new teams eligible this week and none knocked out.

llinois needs one more win, they meet Northwestern at Soldier Field, probably not favored.  Minnesota needs to beat Wisconsin. Nebraska hosts Iowa. Indiana needs to win at Purdue.

Just seems unlikely for the Big 10 to get more than one more eligible though Nebraska could add to the year’s chaos knocking off Iowa. I would expect the Big Ten shorts the Armed Forces Bowl and probably Quick Lane in Detroit.

Conference USA: Bowl ties: 7. Bowl eligible: 5. Remaining teams not eliminated: 1.

Big week mostly remarkable for the teams knocked out. Only Old Dominion is able to get eligible and they host two win FAU.

Last week I was in the camp expecting Rice to make it. Well that was a bust. ODU will make it and CUSA shorts Tucson.

Mid-American: Bowl ties 5. Bowl eligible: 7. Remaining teams not eliminated: 1.

Buffalo closes the season at home with UMass.

MAC will likely have eight eligible teams for five spots.

Mountain West: Bowl ties 6. Bowl eligible: 7. Remaining teams not eliminated: 1.

One new eligible and one eliminated this week.

San Jose State has to beat Boise.

MWC probably ends up where they are with one extra team.

Pac-12: Bowl ties 7. Bowl eligible: 9. Remaining teams not eliminated: 1.

Pac-12 appears to have bombed out of the CFP.

Washington has to beat Washington State.

Pac-12 already has two extras and could get to three as Washington will have a shot at Washington State in Seattle.

Southeastern: Bowl ties: 10, Bowl eligible: 10 Remaining teams not eliminated: 2

The SEC really should have 11 spots to fill with the CFP set-up.

Kentucky has to win at home vs Louisville. Mizzou has to win at Arkansas.

Expecting both UK and Mizzou come up short and the SEC leaves the Independence open.

Sun Belt: Bowl ties: 4, Bowl eligible: 3. Remaining teams not eliminated: 3

Louisiana Lafayette needs two with a home vs Troy and a road trip to App. South Alabama needs one they have to either win at Georgia Southern or home against App. Georgia State has to win out hosting Troy then a trip to Georgia Southern.

BUST. None of the three will be favored to make it.

My Sun Belt selections:

Minor change to reflect that Sun Belt will short one bowl.

New Orleans: AState, GoDaddy: Appalachian State, Montgomery: Georgia Southern.

Georgia Southern and App will both want out to go to Cure. Unlikely that GoDaddy will release a team but ESPN owned Camellia might if they can get a match they like.

What happens under 80?

If there are five or fewer bowl slots still open after placing all bowl eligible teams and all other exceptions are applied, the NCAA will create a list of the the five teams that are 5-7 with the highest APR. Bowls looking to fill a vacancy will be provided with the list and may select any school from the list in any order.