Number are pretty easy. We are 75 eligible and three have a shot to get there though none of the three are likely to be favored in their final game.
American: Bowl ties: 7. Bowl Eligible: 8. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0
Winner of the AAC title game is basically a lock for the Access Bowl. So they will cover that plus all their contracts.
ACC: Bowl ties: 9. Bowl eligible: 9. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0.
Barring upsets ACC will place one in the playoff and one in the New Year’s Six. Notre Dame should be in NY6 as well so won’t be in the ACC bowl pool. Looks like ACC is short for Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.
Big XII: Bowl ties: 7. Bowl eligible: 6. Remaining teams not eliminated: 1.
Kansas State has to beat West Virginia. One site gives K-State a 30% chance and another gives a 40% chance.
Oklahoma is going to be in the playoff. Selection Committee probably slots Baylor in Sugar that gives them 8 slots to fill rather than 7. Big XII is going to short the Heart of Dallas bowl and maybe Cactus bowl as well.
Big 10: Bowl ties 10. Bowl eligible: 8. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0.
Looks like they short the Armed Force Bowl and the Quick Lane Bowl.
Conference USA: Bowl ties: 7. Bowl eligible: 5. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0.
CUSA shorts Tucson and one other. Question is who? St Pete and Miami are vs. AAC, New Mexico vs MWC, Heart of Dallas is against B12 but B12 will be short, but it is also an ESPN owned game. Rice at 5-7 is a high APR that could enter the bowl mix.
Mid-American: Bowl ties 5. Bowl eligible: 7. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0.
MAC will have two extra teams looking for spots.
Mountain West: Bowl ties 6. Bowl eligible: 7. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0.
MWC has one extra team.
Pac-12: Bowl ties 7. Bowl eligible: 10. Remaining teams not eliminated: 0.
Pac-12 has three extra to place.
Southeastern: Bowl ties: 10, Bowl eligible: 10 Remaining teams not eliminated: 0
The SEC really should have 11 spots to fill with the CFP, so they are likely to leave Independence open.
Sun Belt: Bowl ties: 4, Bowl eligible: 3. Remaining teams not eliminated: 2
South Alabama needs to win at home against App. Georgia State has to win at Georgia Southern.
One site gives USA a 6% chance of making it and Georgia State a 4.3% chance. Another site gives USA an 11% chance and Georgia State a 6% chance.
My Sun Belt selections:
Sticking with past projection: AState to New Orleans, App to GoDaddy, and Georgia Southern to Camellia.
What happens under 80?
So far the NCAA hasn’t resolved the issue. The debate is raging whether the 5-7 list is the best APR schools if they are 5-7 or the five 5-7 with the best APR.