Andrew Ferguson - AState Athletics

Looking at competitive points scored vs game in control

Looking at points scored and allowed in context

There is a ranking of defenses that has caused some comment, it is a mix of stats and opinion.

I love stats but also understand that stats can be skewed by a lack of context.

For example. AState gave up 393 points in 2015.

Of those 393 points given up, 59 points or roughly 15% were given up when AState held a lead of 21 or more points and thanks to our adventures in PAT’s there were a few times we gave up points leading by 20 that I didn’t count.

Another 42 points were yielded while AState trailed by 21 or more points. So nearly 26% of all the points Arkansas State’s defense gave up in 2015 came when the outcome was either determined already or the odds of recovering from the deficit were low.

A 21 point lead or deficit isn’t insurmountable if there is enough clock left but a cushion of that much or a deficit of that much is likely to influence decisions regarding which players are on the field and what the defense will try to do on a given play.

AState also scored 520 points.

The Red Wolves scored 108 points in games when AState had a lead of 21 or more, most of that being the 49 scored on Missouri State after taking a 21-0 lead.

In games where AState trailed only 6 points were scored while down 21 or more points.

In game play where there was a difference of fewer than 21 points between the teams AState scored 412 points and opponents scored 292.

With less than a 21 point difference at the time points were scored,  AState averaged scoring 31.7 points per game and gave up 22.5 points per game.