Fascinating week in the Sun Belt.
ULM defeats USA, that allows ULM to stave off bowl elimination just a bit longer. They have to travel to Georgia State and Appalachian State before hosting ULL. South Alabama now becomes iffy without a waiver. They should beat NMSU but have to travel to Idaho. They have second FCS with Presbyterian but unless there is a shortage of bowl teams, they need a waiver to count them.
AState put to rest any chance of Georgia State repeating last year’s miracle run. The Red Wolves need two more to get eligible. AState hosts NMSU this weekend before closing out at Troy, ULL and TXST.
Idaho knocked off ULL. The Vandals need one more win and travel to Texas State before hosting USA and Georgia State. The Cajuns are in deep trouble. They need to win three of the remaining four. They travel to Georgia Southern and Georgia before hosting AState and finish at ULM. The Cajuns could be out before AState arrives.
Georgia Southern threw a scare into Ole Miss but faded. They need two more wins. They host ULL, travel to Georgia State then host Troy.
New Mexico State must win out and will only be favored against Texas State. The Texas State Bobcats must also win out and will not be favored in any games.
So Georgia State is out. NMSU, TXST, and ULM will likely go out this week though ULM might hold on another week. ULL likely goes out in two weeks. That leaves USA needing to sweep NMSU and Idaho, not impossible but traveling to Idaho is worth more than 3 points to the home team.
So that leaves us with a likely bowl eligible pool of: AState, Troy, Appalachian State, Idaho and Georgia Southern.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: I’m sticking with Troy unless the App/AState short week knocks them out. Even if they lose to App then beat AState, I think they are the NOLA pick unless NOLA has a CUSA lined up that can sell tickets.
Dollar General Mobile Bowl: Still think this is App’s destination even if they win out.
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: AState looks like the obvious selection if USA is off the table.
AutoNation Cure Bowl, Orlando: Georgia Southern looks like the best selection for them.
Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl, Tucson: The Idaho Vandals would be the logical team even if there are other Sun Belt available.