The eleventh game of the year matches the Army Black Knights (Sagarin 154, 3-7) and the Mountain West Hawaii Warriors (Sagarin 133, 0-11.) This is the third meeting between these teams as Hawaii beat Army in 2003 and 2010. Army will attempt to end a three game slide and build some momentum going into the potential season and job salvaging game against Navy. Hawaii will attempt to not finish the season winless.
At West Point – Antonio Andrews, the nation's leading rusher ran for 117 yards and the game-winning touchdown with 32 seconds left as the Hill toppers drove 87 yards in 3:49 and came back to beat Army 21-17.
The Army defense played their best game of the year, holding Western Kentucky scoreless in the first half and Andrews to 117 yards on 24 carries. However, they could not hold when it mattered most and Army lost another game. Thomas Holloway had a fantastic game with 11 tackles and an interception. Jerrett Mackey had eight tackles and two sacks.
The Army Offense gained 347 total yards, but two fumbles minimized their effectiveness. Terry Baggett gained 102 yards on only 12 carries and Tony Giovannelli filled in well at Fullback with 82 yards on six carries. Angel Santiago was 8 for 11 for 70 yards through the air and played a solid game minus his fumble on the goal line.
In Laramie – It took 59 points and overtime, but the Cowboys gained 793 total yards to beat the winless Warriors and keep their bowl chances alive.
Hawaii gained 624 total yards in offense, with senior Sean Schroeder completing 37 of 50 passes for 499 yards, six touchdowns and an interception.
Who is favored?
Hawaii is favored by 6 points
What to look for?
Hawaii is a winless team and they will have a lot of emotion coming into the last game of the season. They have lost two overtime games in a row, one to San Diego State and one to Wyoming. They played Navy very closely for three quarters and kept the game close versus undefeated Fresno, bowl eligible UNLV and San Jose State.
Army enters the game having dropped three in a row. Army has lost to then winless Temple and one win Air Force.
Hawaii has a bad defense as they give up 38.5 points a game. Their defense gives up 209 yards rushing and a total of 502 yards per game. Their offense on the other hand averages 398.5 yards per game and scores 25.5 points per game. They have been intercepted 21 times on the season and have turned over 10 fumbles.
Army gives up nearly 400 yards a game and gains 406 yards on offense, but much more than half of that average has been gained in the second half after the outcome of the game has been determined. Army has lost 9 fumbles, but only has only three interceptions on the season.
How bad do you have to be to be a six point underdog to a winless team? The Warriors have definitely gotten close and perhaps there is motivation not to have a winless season on their side. Army really has no incentive to win this game, as any season salvation will rest with the Army-Navy on December 14th.
Hawaii will bring eight in the box immediately, however we expect Terry Baggett to have a big day. Hawaii's defense is not overly big or incredibly fast. Army's predictable dose of offense should work against the Warriors.
On offense, Hawaii has a great quarterback. He will throw 35-40 times and should easily get more than 300 yards on the Army defense if given enough opportunities. His main receiver is Chris Gant who has 857 yards receiving and nine touchdowns coming into the game. It is very likely that Gant will break 1,000 on the season with the totals against Army.
If Army brings their normal defense against the Warriors, they will give up 500 yards in the air. We are hoping that Payam Sadat has a healthy mix of man and zone coverage. Gant is prone to throwing interceptions and they will need a couple to win this game.
For Army to win, they will have to come ready to play. Army has come out flat in most road games this year. We are hoping that the normal Thanksgiving break and an extra day in Hawaii will give them some time to mentally prepare for the game.
Army must win the turn-over battle and time of possession. Limiting Hawaii's touches will significantly improve their chances of winning. Army will also help themselves if they are playing from ahead as this will allow them to take more chances on defense.
We expect very big games from Baggett and Santiago. They should combine for more than 300 yards on the ground. Do not be surprised if Santiago does complete a couple of touchdown passes.
Ellerson is from Hawaii and he is undoubtedly embarrassed to be bringing a three win team to Oahu. Pride and three weeks of preparation should lead to a good performance.
Final Score – Army 35 – Hawaii 31 (predictions in 2013, 6-4)
Game will not be shown on television unless you get the Mountain West Network. Kick-off will be @ 11:00 PM EST.
Key matchups: Army vs. Hawaii
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