Although basketball recruiting historically hasn't produced de-commitments to the same extent as football recruiting, certainly there's ample precedent. The Class of 2014 featured numerous early commitments, and some of those pledges crumbled as time wore on.
Our topic this week concerns signing week and the chances of any ranked player decommitting and signing with a different school. Each of our analysts offered a percentage chance and provided an explanation.
I'll say 5 percent. It's possible but not typically a problem in basketball. Unlike in football where signing day can be a very nervous time in the office waiting for LOIs to come in, in basketball coaches are usually only signing a few guys and almost always have them locked down by the time signing day arrives. Every once in a while you'll have a signing day surprise, but recruiting committed kids just isn't as frequent in basketball. Obviously never say never, and a surprise decommitment is possible, but I'm certainly not expecting it.
I'm going with 20 percent. Normally, I'd place the odds much lower, but this cycle has featured some screwball recruitments with last second turns. Very recently, Kevon Looney shocked everyone by choosing UCLA, and James Blackmon re-committed to Indiana after it appeared he would pick Kentucky. So while I think the status quo likely will hold, I'm going to say there's a one-in-five chance that the tables get turned on someone.
For me, it's 3 percent. At this point I would say that no player in the country is on the verge of a de-commitment. Everybody who has committed at least seems solid on surface. There is always the potential that some kind of de-commitment could happen, but at least for the time being I am not going to expect one.
The odds would be slim. Although if it were to happen, I'm not sure we'd know about it right now. This sort of thing seems to be common practice in football, in basketball not so much. I'd put the odds of a kid flipping their commitment and signing with another school in this early period at about 2 percent.
Evan Daniels, Josh Gershon, Rob Harrington and Brian Snow contributed to this report