Texas Game Preview Part 2 -Offense vs Defense

The Bears and Longhorns get together this Saturday evening. Find out how they match up on both sides of the ball.

Baylor, winners of the last two games between these two teams, travels down to Austin, TX to face longtime conference rival Texas Saturday night, in a national game on ABC. Both teams are not in the national rankings this week, as both are coming off their second loss in a row. With both teams needing a win to save the season, you can expect some desperation on the field Saturday night. How do these teams matchup though? Find out below:

Baylor Offense versus Texas Defense:

Points / Game

Yards / Point

Points / Play

3rd Down

TOP

Punts / Score

Turnovers

Baylor Offense

47.5

12.1

0.6615

52.17

23

0.4

2.2

Rank

3rd

16th

3rd

12th

124th

1st

97th

Texas Defense

32.5

13.8

0.45

38.27%

28.38

0.6

1.8

Rank

86th

80th

95th

50th

38th

110th

49th

The Texas defense came into the 2012 campaign touted as one of the best in the nation. They were going to be an "SEC" type defense. So far they have been an SEC type defense, just a very bad SEC defense. The Longhorns enter this contest ranked 90th in the country in yards allowed per game at 449.7 yards per game. That is over 140 yards per game more than they yielded last year to opposing offenses, and a big step back from the expectations.

Yardage

Total Yards

Yards / Play

Plays / game

Rushing Yards

Yards / Rush

Passing Yards

Yards / Pass

Baylor Offense

573.5

7.4

77.2

153.5

3.9

420

11.5

Rank

2nd

2nd

33rd

72nd

78th

1st

1st

Texas Defense

449.7

6.2

72.2

209.2

5.1

240.5

8.2

Rank

90th

99th

58th

99th

101nd

67th

104th

The Longhorn rush defense has been terrible this year, allowing 5.1 yards per rush for over 209 yards per game. Texas has been plagued by missed tackles and basic mistakes in terms of lining up properly. They have also not been a very physical and aggressive defense. Their pass defense has been better, but that is mainly because teams are not passing much on them. When they do, they get 8.2 yards per play (104th worst in the country).

The Bears offense matches up well with what UT does well and what it doesn't. UT has struggled at the safety position to cover speed receivers, and have let guys get behind them. They have allowed 46 passing plays of over 15 yards this season, 16 of which are greater than 25 yards. The Bears have had 70 such plays, with 23 going for more than 25 yards. UT is much more effective when they can get into a 3rd down and long, as they have at least an average 3rd down defense.

One thing that UT does do well on defense is rush the passer. They get a sack on 7.41% of all passing attempts, good for 23rd in the country. The Bears are middle of the pack in sacks allowed, with just 4.58% (56th in the country). However UT will be missing one of their two stalwart defensive ends, Jackson Jeffcoat, who is out for the year.

Baylor should be able to stretch the UT defense, especially if it can get anything going in the running game, which everyone else has been able to do against Texas. However, Baylor will have to take care of the ball against and not allow too much pressure to get to Nick Florence.

Baylor Defense versus Texas Offense:

Points / Game

Yards / Point

Points / Play

3rd Down

TOP

Punts / Score

Turnovers

Baylor Defense

46.2

12.9

0.518

70.42

37

0.4

1.5

Rank

122nd

95th

110th

124TH

124TH

124TH

80TH

Texas Offense

42.5

10.5

0.596

54.02

31.21

0.5

1

Rank

5th

4th

6th

7th

37th

4th

17th

The numbers here are pretty ugly for the Bears, as they rank pretty far down almost every metric in the nation (out of 124 teams, they rank last in three of the above stats). Baylor is the worst defense in the nation at stopping someone on 3rd down, and they allow the most time of possession for the opposing offense.

The Texas offense is effective more than explosive. They rush the ball pretty well, but not great. They pass the ball better than I would expect, mainly due to David Ash completing 71.9% of his passes. His top three pass catchers are receivers; Mike Davis, Jaxon Shipley and Marquis Goodwin. After that though is a bunch of running backs and tight ends that have totaled 49 receptions on the season (as a comparison, Baylor has 11 receptions from running backs/tight ends). They run a lot of screen plays for their running backs especially Jeremy Hills and Daje Johnson.

Yardage

Total Yards

Yards / Play

Plays / game

Rushing Yards

Yards / Rush

Passing Yards

Yards / Pass

Baylor Defense

595.8

6.7

89.2

201.5

4.9

394.2

8.5

Rank

124th

118th

123rd

94th

89th

123rd

112th

Texas Offense

446

6.3

71.3

186.8

4.8

259.2

8.4

Rank

35th

19th

71st

38th

43rd

39th

20th

However, there is a bit of a silver lining. The Bears are still bad at rush defense, but they are not absolutely dreadful at it. The rush defense looks much worse due to them having to spend so much energy stopping passing games with their safeties. Against a Texas team that has no real down field threats, Baylor might have a chance to play closer to the line of scrimmage and keep the Texas offense in front of them.

Texas' offense is not great, but it is efficient. They do not leave a lot of points on the board, and have the 19th best redzone offense in the nation (score touchdown or field goal on 90% of their trips). They also don't turn the ball over, averaging the 17th fewest turnovers in the game. This is an offense that does not beat itself, unless you force it to kick field goals. They have made only 44.44% of their kicks, good for 114th in the nation.

Summary:

Expectations coming into the season said that UT would struggle to put points up and pass the ball, while their defense would carry them. This has turned out to be completely wrong, as their defense has struggled immensely and their passing offense has actually been pretty good.

Texas is still a run first offense, which plays slightly into the Bears favor, primarily because they are the worst passing defense in the country. The Baylor defenders are better against the run, but not great. Texas is a low-turnover efficient offense that moves the ball well.

The Baylor offense seems to have a good matchup for them in the Longhorn defense, as they struggle against the run and are weak against deep passes. Is this the week the Bears rushing attack finally takes off and helps the best deep passing attack in college football?


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