Bears look to rebound

The Bears have lost two home games in a row and are looking to bounce back with the Lamar Cardinals coming to Waco.

The Bears, fresh off an expected Wildcat split, in a completely unexpected way, welcome to town a Lamar team that is 1-7 on the season. The Cardinals, with second year coach Pat Knight, are off to a very rough start. The Cardinals will also be playing for the second night in a row, as they play Louisiana Lafayette on the road.

2012-2013

Baylor

Lamar

Sagarin

22

309

KenPom

29

313

Massey

45

287

TeamRanking.com

59

284

AP Poll

N/A

N/A

Coaches Poll

N/A

N/A

The Cardinals are outmatched talent wise across the board, as the Bears are the taller, more athletic, and more experienced across the board. Lamar only has two players in their top contributors that are taller than 6-5. Lamar only has 1 player that averaged over 10 points per game, and they have one of the worst shooting teams in the country (ranking 335th in effective field goal shooting out of 347 teams). They also don't get to the foul line (343rd in the country), don't shoot the 3-point shot well (320th in terms of % of points from the 3-point shot). Oh, and they also don't block (330th in % of possessions) or get steals (342nd). Lamar is off to one of the worst starts in school history.

The Cardinals start two seniors along with two freshmen and a sophomore. The best player is Stan Brown, a 6-8 post player that leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks. He is truly their most efficient player shooting over 50% from the field (only player playing meaningful minutes to do so). Brown is their only player with a positive win share according to college basketball's sports reference at 0.2. To compare, Taurean Prince has a 0.3 win share for the Bears.

Alongside him is 6-5 freshman wing player Rhon Mitchell their most efficient three-point shooter and another scoring option. Mitchell is their best one on one creator and shot maker. He leads the team in offensive usage rate, and leads the team in shots taken.

The starting back court includes returning starter and senior Donley Minor next to a 5-8 undersized freshman point guard in Keilan Banks, their best distributor and passer. Minor is a steadying force in the back court and can bring the ball up if the Bears show their press defense.

Keys to the Game

-Just show up to play – The Bears lost against Northwestern simply because they didn't show up with the necessary energy to compete and win against a team playing well. Don't get me wrong, Lamar is not even close to the level of Northwestern or even College of Charleston, but I think the Bears need a fun and easy win.

-Get Pierre going again – Looking at the box score at the end of the game, some might say that Pierre Jackson was not one of the big reasons the Bears lost two of their last three games. However, his play against College of Charleston and Northwestern were not up to his standards. He has shot just 13 of 36 (36.11% shooting) and a terrible 3 of 15 (20%) from behind the arc. Honestly, the Bears might be able to beat Lamar with Jackson struggling to shoot, but they need to get him going for the rest of the year.

NCAA Basketball Stats

-Win the turnovers – The Bears biggest advantage in this game, outside of possibly pure talent, is how both teams take care of the ball. Lamar turns the ball over 27.2% of their possessions versus just 17.9% for the Bears. Baylor also has a huge advantage in forcing turnovers (21% of opponent possessions versus 16.5%). The Bears should be able to get at least 5-7 more turnovers in this game.

Prediction

KenPom – Bears win 83-57 (98% chance to win)

Massey – Bears win 82-58 (98% chance to win)

TeamRanking – Bears win 77.7 – 58.8 (97.1% chance to win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 78-47

Your humble commentator is on a personal 3-game losing streak picking the Bears to win against College of Charleston and Northwestern and to lose to Kentucky. Not fun personally. This team has been very hard to read. They beat a team more talented than them in Kentucky, and lost to two teams that they should have beaten. The difference in those games? Effort. The Bears came out and played hard against Kentucky and tried to coast to an easy win against College of Charleston or Northwestern.

I expected the Bears to learn their lesson after the first bad stumble at home, and they did answer a bunch of questions with a tough road win against Kentucky. However, they came out with the same lack of energy and passion against Northwestern. It also didn't help that Pierre Jackson shot just 5-15 and played poorly for the first 35 minutes of the game.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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The Cardinals start two seniors along with two freshmen and a sophomore. The best player is Stan Brown, a 6-8 post player that leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks. He is truly their most efficient player shooting over 50% from the field (only player playing meaningful minutes to do so). Brown is their only player with a positive win share according to college basketball's sports reference at 0.2. To compare, Taurean Prince has a 0.3 win share for the Bears.

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Alongside him is 6-5 freshman wing player Rhon Mitchell their most efficient three-point shooter and another scoring option. Mitchell is their best one on one creator and shot maker. He leads the team in offensive usage rate, and leads the team in shots taken.

\r\n\r\n

The starting back court includes returning starter and senior Donley Minor next to a 5-8 undersized freshman point guard in Keilan Banks, their best distributor and passer. Minor is a steadying force in the back court and can bring the ball up if the Bears show their press defense.

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Keys to the Game

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-Just show up to play – The Bears lost against Northwestern simply because they didn't show up with the necessary energy to compete and win against a team playing well. Don't get me wrong, Lamar is not even close to the level of Northwestern or even College of Charleston, but I think the Bears need a fun and easy win.

\r\n\r\n

-Get Pierre going again – Looking at the box score at the end of the game, some might say that Pierre Jackson was not one of the big reasons the Bears lost two of their last three games. However, his play against College of Charleston and Northwestern were not up to his standards. He has shot just 13 of 36 (36.11% shooting) and a terrible 3 of 15 (20%) from behind the arc. Honestly, the Bears might be able to beat Lamar with Jackson struggling to shoot, but they need to get him going for the rest of the year.

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\r\n\r\n \r\n NCAA Basketball Stats\r\n\r\n
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-Win the turnovers – The Bears biggest advantage in this game, outside of possibly pure talent, is how both teams take care of the ball. Lamar turns the ball over 27.2% of their possessions versus just 17.9% for the Bears. Baylor also has a huge advantage in forcing turnovers (21% of opponent possessions versus 16.5%). The Bears should be able to get at least 5-7 more turnovers in this game.

\r\n\r\n

Prediction

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KenPom – Bears win 83-57 (98% chance to win)

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Massey – Bears win 82-58 (98% chance to win)

\r\n\r\n

TeamRanking – Bears win 77.7 – 58.8 (97.1% chance to win)

\r\n\r\n

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 78-47

\r\n\r\n

Your humble commentator is on a personal 3-game losing streak picking the Bears to win against College of Charleston and Northwestern and to lose to Kentucky. Not fun personally. This team has been very hard to read. They beat a team more talented than them in Kentucky, and lost to two teams that they should have beaten. The difference in those games? Effort. The Bears came out and played hard against Kentucky and tried to coast to an easy win against College of Charleston or Northwestern.

\r\n\r\n

I expected the Bears to learn their lesson after the first bad stumble at home, and they did answer a bunch of questions with a tough road win against Kentucky. However, they came out with the same lack of energy and passion against Northwestern. It also didn't help that Pierre Jackson shot just 5-15 and played poorly for the first 35 minutes of the game.

\r\n","mobileBody":"

The Bears, fresh off an expected Wildcat split, in a completely unexpected way, welcome to town a Lamar team that is 1-7 on the season. The Cardinals, with second year coach Pat Knight, are off to a very rough start. The Cardinals will also be playing for the second night in a row, as they play Louisiana Lafayette on the road.

The Cardinals are outmatched talent wise across the board, as the Bears are the taller, more athletic, and more experienced across the board. Lamar only has two players in their top contributors that are taller than 6-5. Lamar only has 1 player that averaged over 10 points per game, and they have one of the worst shooting teams in the country (ranking 335 in effective field goal shooting out of 347 teams). They also don't get to the foul line (343 in the country), don't shoot the 3-point shot well (320 in terms of % of points from the 3-point shot). Oh, and they also don't block (330 in % of possessions) or get steals (342). Lamar is off to one of the worst starts in school history.

The Cardinals start two seniors along with two freshmen and a sophomore. The best player is Stan Brown, a 6-8 post player that leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks. He is truly their most efficient player shooting over 50% from the field (only player playing meaningful minutes to do so). Brown is their only player with a positive win share according to college basketball's sports reference at 0.2. To compare, Taurean Prince has a 0.3 win share for the Bears.

Alongside him is 6-5 freshman wing player Rhon Mitchell their most efficient three-point shooter and another scoring option. Mitchell is their best one on one creator and shot maker. He leads the team in offensive usage rate, and leads the team in shots taken.

The starting back court includes returning starter and senior Donley Minor next to a 5-8 undersized freshman point guard in Keilan Banks, their best distributor and passer. Minor is a steadying force in the back court and can bring the ball up if the Bears show their press defense.

– The Bears lost against Northwestern simply because they didn't show up with the necessary energy to compete and win against a team playing well. Don't get me wrong, Lamar is not even close to the level of Northwestern or even College of Charleston, but I think the Bears need a fun and easy win.

– Looking at the box score at the end of the game, some might say that Pierre Jackson was not one of the big reasons the Bears lost two of their last three games. However, his play against College of Charleston and Northwestern were not up to his standards. He has shot just 13 of 36 (36.11% shooting) and a terrible 3 of 15 (20%) from behind the arc. Honestly, the Bears might be able to beat Lamar with Jackson struggling to shoot, but they need to get him going for the rest of the year.

– The Bears biggest advantage in this game, outside of possibly pure talent, is how both teams take care of the ball. Lamar turns the ball over 27.2% of their possessions versus just 17.9% for the Bears. Baylor also has a huge advantage in forcing turnovers (21% of opponent possessions versus 16.5%). The Bears should be able to get at least 5-7 more turnovers in this game.

KenPom – Bears win 83-57 (98% chance to win)

Massey – Bears win 82-58 (98% chance to win)

TeamRanking – Bears win 77.7 – 58.8 (97.1% chance to win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 78-47

Your humble commentator is on a personal 3-game losing streak picking the Bears to win against College of Charleston and Northwestern and to lose to Kentucky. Not fun personally. This team has been very hard to read. They beat a team more talented than them in Kentucky, and lost to two teams that they should have beaten. The difference in those games? Effort. The Bears came out and played hard against Kentucky and tried to coast to an easy win against College of Charleston or Northwestern.

I expected the Bears to learn their lesson after the first bad stumble at home, and they did answer a bunch of questions with a tough road win against Kentucky. However, they came out with the same lack of energy and passion against Northwestern. It also didn't help that Pierre Jackson shot just 5-15 and played poorly for the first 35 minutes of the game.

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