Baylor vs. TCU Preview

The Bears come back from Lubbock 2-0 and looking for their third win against a struggling TCU team.

The Baylor Bears, fresh off a dominating road win against Texas Tech come home to face off against TCU. Now, I know last week I said that Texas Tech was bad, and that pretty much played true to form with a Baylor 34 point win in Lubbock. Well, TCU lost to Texas Tech at home by 9 points, so yeah, the Horn Frogs are struggling in their first year in the Big 12.

2012-2013

Baylor

TCU

Sagarin

26

242

KenPom

24

261

Massey

33

231

TeamRanking.com

40

219

RPI (ESPN)

31

202

BPI (ESPN)

24

226

AP Poll

N/A

N/A

Coaches Poll

N/A

N/A

The conference newcomer is off to a terrible start in conference, with their most winnable game already counted as a loss, a 0-18 campaign looks inevitable. Trent Johnson, first year coach previously of LSU has his work cut out for him with an unproven team with little depth, especially after the loss of three key players already in 2012. They are not a young team either, as KenPom has them as the 44th most experienced team in the country, with an average of 2.16 years of experience. They play several seniors as Garlon Green, Adrick McKinney, Nate Butler Lind and Connell Crossland all log big minutes for the Frogs.

Green is one of their two best players, as the 6-7 forward plays kind of a swing role for them, as they have three forwards in their starting lineup. Green is a slashing forward, who gets to the rim quite a bit and can hit an open shot from 3-point range, though that is not the strength of his game. The younger brother of NBA player Gerald Green, the younger sibling is not quite as explosive, but he is very good at getting his shot off.

College Basketball Stats

Their other leading player is point guard Kyan Anderson, a sophomore point guard from Fort Worth (North Crowley High School). He is the focal point of their offense, as he takes their second highest percentage of shots, and has by far their highest assist rate and leads them in assists at 3.7 per game.

Keys to the Game

College Basketball Stats

-Don't settle for three's – The Horn Frogs are one of the better defensive teams against three-pointers that the Bears have seen so far this year. They only allow 30.6% shooting from outside the arc, but they allow 44.9% from inside the arc. Baylor, while they do have some 3-point shooting threats, is a much better team offensively when they take it inside. They are shooting 54% from inside the arc, 23rd highest in the country. The Horn Frogs, while they have good size, do not have any rim protectors on the floor, as they only have 50 blocks on the season (180th in the country), plus they have no active player taller than 6-8. Baylor has to get the ball inside and dominate the paint rather than settle for 3-pointers.

-Push the tempo - TCU is an okay defense, propped up in the non-pace adjusted statistics by their numbingly slow pace. They are the 322nd fastest team in terms of pace in the country. Make no mistake, TCU wants this game to be slow and scored in the 40s or 50s. This is a throwback style that might be their only way to keep a game close at this point. They average just 62.9 possessions per game (11th fewest in the country). Baylor on the other hand averages 71 possessions per game (87th in the country) and runs a much higher tempo. If the Bears can get out and run on TCU, the Horn Frogs have not shown any interest in keeping up this year.

-Don't play down to the opponent – Again, TCU is not a strong opponent this year. They might be the 3rd easiest opponent this year (in front of Lamar and Jackson State). The Bears simply have to play their game, get a big lead and let some of the young guys gets a few minutes. So, pretty much exactly what they did against Texas Tech.

Predictions!

KenPom – Bears win 73-51 (97% chance for win)

Massey – Bears win 73-50 (98% chance for win)

TeamRanking – Bears win 75.7 -60.8 (93.7% chance for win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 78-52

Look, TCU is just a terrible basketball team right now. They are without three key players already, with Amric Fields injuring his knee after three games, center Aaron Durley already out with a knee injury and Jarvis Ray who has a foot issue. Those are three key players on a team with little depth and talent in their inaugural run through the Big 12. TCU has a chance to be one of the worst Big 12 teams in history, and might be the worst power conference basketball program right now. Things are not looking up in Fort Worth. Baylor will be able to physically dominate them at every position, and I fully expect a 20+ point margin.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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Their other leading player is point guard Kyan Anderson, a sophomore point guard from Fort Worth (North Crowley High School). He is the focal point of their offense, as he takes their second highest percentage of shots, and has by far their highest assist rate and leads them in assists at 3.7 per game.

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Keys to the Game

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-Don't settle for three's – The Horn Frogs are one of the better defensive teams against three-pointers that the Bears have seen so far this year. They only allow 30.6% shooting from outside the arc, but they allow 44.9% from inside the arc. Baylor, while they do have some 3-point shooting threats, is a much better team offensively when they take it inside. They are shooting 54% from inside the arc, 23rd highest in the country. The Horn Frogs, while they have good size, do not have any rim protectors on the floor, as they only have 50 blocks on the season (180th in the country), plus they have no active player taller than 6-8. Baylor has to get the ball inside and dominate the paint rather than settle for 3-pointers.

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-Push the tempo - TCU is an okay defense, propped up in the non-pace adjusted statistics by their numbingly slow pace. They are the 322nd fastest team in terms of pace in the country. Make no mistake, TCU wants this game to be slow and scored in the 40s or 50s. This is a throwback style that might be their only way to keep a game close at this point. They average just 62.9 possessions per game (11th fewest in the country). Baylor on the other hand averages 71 possessions per game (87th in the country) and runs a much higher tempo. If the Bears can get out and run on TCU, the Horn Frogs have not shown any interest in keeping up this year.

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-Don't play down to the opponent – Again, TCU is not a strong opponent this year. They might be the 3rd easiest opponent this year (in front of Lamar and Jackson State). The Bears simply have to play their game, get a big lead and let some of the young guys gets a few minutes. So, pretty much exactly what they did against Texas Tech.

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Predictions!

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KenPom – Bears win 73-51 (97% chance for win)

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Massey – Bears win 73-50 (98% chance for win)

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TeamRanking – Bears win 75.7 -60.8 (93.7% chance for win)

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BearsIllustrated – Bears win 78-52

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Look, TCU is just a terrible basketball team right now. They are without three key players already, with Amric Fields injuring his knee after three games, center Aaron Durley already out with a knee injury and Jarvis Ray who has a foot issue. Those are three key players on a team with little depth and talent in their inaugural run through the Big 12. TCU has a chance to be one of the worst Big 12 teams in history, and might be the worst power conference basketball program right now. Things are not looking up in Fort Worth. Baylor will be able to physically dominate them at every position, and I fully expect a 20+ point margin.

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The Baylor Bears, fresh off a dominating road win against Texas Tech come home to face off against TCU. Now, I know last week I said that Texas Tech was bad, and that pretty much played true to form with a Baylor 34 point win in Lubbock. Well, TCU lost to Texas Tech at home by 9 points, so yeah, the Horn Frogs are struggling in their first year in the Big 12.

The conference newcomer is off to a terrible start in conference, with their most winnable game already counted as a loss, a 0-18 campaign looks inevitable. Trent Johnson, first year coach previously of LSU has his work cut out for him with an unproven team with little depth, especially after the loss of three key players already in 2012. They are not a young team either, as KenPom has them as the 44 most experienced team in the country, with an average of 2.16 years of experience. They play several seniors as Garlon Green, Adrick McKinney, Nate Butler Lind and Connell Crossland all log big minutes for the Frogs.

Green is one of their two best players, as the 6-7 forward plays kind of a swing role for them, as they have three forwards in their starting lineup. Green is a slashing forward, who gets to the rim quite a bit and can hit an open shot from 3-point range, though that is not the strength of his game. The younger brother of NBA player Gerald Green, the younger sibling is not quite as explosive, but he is very good at getting his shot off.

Their other leading player is point guard Kyan Anderson, a sophomore point guard from Fort Worth (North Crowley High School). He is the focal point of their offense, as he takes their second highest percentage of shots, and has by far their highest assist rate and leads them in assists at 3.7 per game.

– The Horn Frogs are one of the better defensive teams against three-pointers that the Bears have seen so far this year. They only allow 30.6% shooting from outside the arc, but they allow 44.9% from inside the arc. Baylor, while they do have some 3-point shooting threats, is a much better team offensively when they take it inside. They are shooting 54% from inside the arc, 23 highest in the country. The Horn Frogs, while they have good size, do not have any rim protectors on the floor, as they only have 50 blocks on the season (180 in the country), plus they have no active player taller than 6-8. Baylor has to get the ball inside and dominate the paint rather than settle for 3-pointers.

- TCU is an okay defense, propped up in the non-pace adjusted statistics by their numbingly slow pace. They are the 322 fastest team in terms of pace in the country. Make no mistake, TCU wants this game to be slow and scored in the 40s or 50s. This is a throwback style that might be their only way to keep a game close at this point. They average just 62.9 possessions per game (11 fewest in the country). Baylor on the other hand averages 71 possessions per game (87 in the country) and runs a much higher tempo. If the Bears can get out and run on TCU, the Horn Frogs have not shown any interest in keeping up this year.

- Again, TCU is not a strong opponent this year. They might be the 3 easiest opponent this year (in front of Lamar and Jackson State). The Bears simply have to play their game, get a big lead and let some of the young guys gets a few minutes. So, pretty much exactly what they did against Texas Tech.

KenPom – Bears win 73-51 (97% chance for win)

Massey – Bears win 73-50 (98% chance for win)

TeamRanking – Bears win 75.7 -60.8 (93.7% chance for win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 78-52

Look, TCU is just a terrible basketball team right now. They are without three key players already, with Amric Fields injuring his knee after three games, center Aaron Durley already out with a knee injury and Jarvis Ray who has a foot issue. Those are three key players on a team with little depth and talent in their inaugural run through the Big 12. TCU has a chance to be one of the worst Big 12 teams in history, and might be the worst power conference basketball program right now. Things are not looking up in Fort Worth. Baylor will be able to physically dominate them at every position, and I fully expect a 20+ point margin.

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