Baylor versus Oklahoma Preview

The Bears host the Oklahoma Sooners Wednesday night at the Ferrell Center with the Sooners looking to avoid their first losing streak in 2012 after falling to Kansas.

Right now, there is little to no doubt who the best team in the Big 12 is. That would be Kansas, at 18-1 and undefeated in Big 12 play, the Jayhawks have separated from the pack. Second through sixth place though is wide open, with two teams looking to solidify a higher standing in the fray meeting Wednesday night in Waco, Texas. The Baylor Bears (14-5, 5-1) host the Oklahoma Sooners (13-5, 4-2) with both fighting to put themselves on that second line in the Big 12.

2012-2013

Baylor

Oklahoma

Sagarin

18

46

KenPom

27

54

Massey

32

41

TeamRanking.com

34

35

RPI (ESPN)

34

24

BPI (ESPN)

28

41

AP Poll

35

N/A

Coaches Poll

34

N/A

The Bears have won three games in a row following an embarrassing loss to the Jayhawks, while the Sooners are fresh off of their loss in Lawrence, Kansas. With the three wins, the Bears are starting to receive votes in both the AP and the Coaches poll for the first time in a few weeks. The Sooners have had a pretty good year in regards to their expectations. Lon Kruger in his second year in Norman has his team playing well. According to KenPom, they are just 3-5 against Top 100 teams and 1-3 if you look at the Top 75. Their best win is against rival Oklahoma State at home, but after that, you are looking at beating Ohio at home by 11 as their next best win.

However, the Sooners are playing much better this year and are trying to solidify themselves in the top half of the Big 12 again after a few down years. They are led by Senior Romero Osby, a freaky athletic 6-8 forward who has really developed into an all-around good player this year. He is averaging 14.4 points per game while making 50.6% of his shots. He is also their leading rebounder at 6.4 per game, and their top shot blocker at 0.9 per game. The transfer from Mississippi State in his second year at Oklahoma is one of the more athletic players in the Big 12, and is having a tremendous season. He is second in the Big 12 in scoring during league play (18 points per game through 6 contests) and is 9th in rebounding.

The Sooners have two other players averaging double figures scoring outputs per game in Amath M'Baye a 6-9 post player and Steven Pledger, their 6-4 marksman. Pledger is a very good shooter, and was their leading scorer last year. His scoring output is down this year, primarily to a big dip in his shooting percentages. However, he is an excellent shooter and the most likely matchup for A.J. Walton.

College Basketball Stats

The player that has helped them improve the most though is a newcomer to the OU basketball program, true freshman Buddy Hield, a 6-3 point guard who has played very well and under control for the Sooners. He is a very good defensive player and does a good job of staying under control on offense. He only commits a turnover on 19.3% of his possessions (to compare Pierre Jackson is at 19.9% this year and 26% last year), and averages 9.4 points per game. He is good at getting steals and uses his size to get 4.7 rebounds per game.

This year the Sooners appear to be a more balanced and deeper team. They have no player averaging more than 26 minutes per game, but have 9 players over 16 minutes. Mind you, the

Keys to the Game:

-Don't let Osby take over the game – If anyone saw the Sooners play the Texas Longhorns just over a week ago, you saw what Osby can do when he is at his best. 29 points on 60% shooting, 8 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists. He absolutely destroyed Texas from all over the place. He attacked them in the post, off the dribble and attacked the glass. He played with fire and led a huge run to turn the tides on Texas and take control of the game. He is a dynamic player and one that when playing fully invested can be the best player on the floor.

The Bears will have to make sure Osby doesn't take over the game, especially by getting the Baylor defenders in foul trouble. He is elite at drawing fouls, right now averaging 6.6 fouls drawn per 40 minutes (25th best in the nation) and he is a good free throw shooter as well, making 81.7% of his chances. The Bears are not the deepest team in the front court, with just three players logging the majority of the minutes, so they will have to play smart and keep Osby off of the foul line. Against Texas, he went to the foul line 11 times (though we know how much UT likes to send players to the foul line, especially post players).

NCAA Basketball Stats

-Make anyone but Pledger shoot long shots – While Steven Pledger has not been as great from 3-point range this year as he was last year (36.6% versus 41.6%) he is still an excellent shooter who is capable of taking over a game from 3-point range. Outside of him though, the sooners have few dependable options from outside. Buddy Hield makes only 30.4% of his 3-pointers despite taking more than 3 per game. In fact, the Sooners shoot just 31.9% from behind the arc as a team (250th in the country). If you take away Pledger from that group and make him convert tough chances, they have no one else on their team getting minutes that can stretch a defense dependably.

-Beat the Sooners on the Glass – Neither the Sooners or the Bears are great rebounding teams, though they both have their strengths. Both are much better on the offensive glass than they are at clearing their own defensive end. However, the Bears are the better rebounding team, as they do a better job on offense and are close enough on defense to have the edge (overall a 0.3% edge or roughly 1 rebound per game).

Rebounding Percentages

Baylor

Oklahoma

When Baylor is Shooting

34.60%

70.10%

RANK

64

156

When Oklahoma is Shooting

68.10%

29.90%

RANK

231

156

Overall Rebounding %

51.50%

51.20%

Rank

105

122

Baylor has to do a good job of keeping them off the glass. Luckily, this is a matchup where the Bears size disadvantage at the small forward position won't hurt them too much, as Pledger is just 6-4 and averages .6 less rebound per game than the 6-1 AJ Walton. The Bears really depend on their three main post players to carry the load on the glass, as Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson are both average over 8 rebounds per game with Ricardo Gathers being an absolute beast on the glass in his limited minutes (5th best offensive rebounding percentage according to KenPom in the nation, 174th best defensive percentage).

Predictions:

KenPom – 73-65 Bears win (74% chance for victory)

Massey – 72-65 Bears win (74% chance for victory)

TeamRanking – 68.4-62.1 Bears win (72.5% chance for victory)

BearsIllustrated – 70-62 Bears win

The Sooners are not a good shooting team, though they maintain a decent offense by playing at an average tempo and not turning the ball over much and getting a good amount of offensive rebounds. They are a balanced team, ranking 62nd in defense and 56th in offense according to KenPom. They struggle to shoot the 3-pointer well, which is the one area on defense that the Bears struggle with, though right now, the Bears are playing excellent defense.

The Bears also do a great job of not sending teams to the foul line very much. Baylor is also much bigger in the post, especially the starting lineups, and loses little to nothing in terms of speed and agility. I expect the advanced stats to play out, and the Bears to take advantage of this good matchup at home and start conference play 6-1.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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The player that has helped them improve the most though is a newcomer to the OU basketball program, true freshman Buddy Hield, a 6-3 point guard who has played very well and under control for the Sooners. He is a very good defensive player and does a good job of staying under control on offense. He only commits a turnover on 19.3% of his possessions (to compare Pierre Jackson is at 19.9% this year and 26% last year), and averages 9.4 points per game. He is good at getting steals and uses his size to get 4.7 rebounds per game.

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This year the Sooners appear to be a more balanced and deeper team. They have no player averaging more than 26 minutes per game, but have 9 players over 16 minutes. Mind you, the

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Keys to the Game:

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-Don't let Osby take over the game – If anyone saw the Sooners play the Texas Longhorns just over a week ago, you saw what Osby can do when he is at his best. 29 points on 60% shooting, 8 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists. He absolutely destroyed Texas from all over the place. He attacked them in the post, off the dribble and attacked the glass. He played with fire and led a huge run to turn the tides on Texas and take control of the game. He is a dynamic player and one that when playing fully invested can be the best player on the floor.

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The Bears will have to make sure Osby doesn't take over the game, especially by getting the Baylor defenders in foul trouble. He is elite at drawing fouls, right now averaging 6.6 fouls drawn per 40 minutes (25th best in the nation) and he is a good free throw shooter as well, making 81.7% of his chances. The Bears are not the deepest team in the front court, with just three players logging the majority of the minutes, so they will have to play smart and keep Osby off of the foul line. Against Texas, he went to the foul line 11 times (though we know how much UT likes to send players to the foul line, especially post players).

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-Make anyone but Pledger shoot long shots – While Steven Pledger has not been as great from 3-point range this year as he was last year (36.6% versus 41.6%) he is still an excellent shooter who is capable of taking over a game from 3-point range. Outside of him though, the sooners have few dependable options from outside. Buddy Hield makes only 30.4% of his 3-pointers despite taking more than 3 per game. In fact, the Sooners shoot just 31.9% from behind the arc as a team (250th in the country). If you take away Pledger from that group and make him convert tough chances, they have no one else on their team getting minutes that can stretch a defense dependably.

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-Beat the Sooners on the Glass – Neither the Sooners or the Bears are great rebounding teams, though they both have their strengths. Both are much better on the offensive glass than they are at clearing their own defensive end. However, the Bears are the better rebounding team, as they do a better job on offense and are close enough on defense to have the edge (overall a 0.3% edge or roughly 1 rebound per game).

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Rebounding Percentages

Baylor

Oklahoma

When Baylor is Shooting

34.60%

70.10%

RANK

64

156

When Oklahoma is Shooting

68.10%

29.90%

RANK

231

156

Overall Rebounding %

51.50%

51.20%

Rank

105

122

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Baylor has to do a good job of keeping them off the glass. Luckily, this is a matchup where the Bears size disadvantage at the small forward position won't hurt them too much, as Pledger is just 6-4 and averages .6 less rebound per game than the 6-1 AJ Walton. The Bears really depend on their three main post players to carry the load on the glass, as Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson are both average over 8 rebounds per game with Ricardo Gathers being an absolute beast on the glass in his limited minutes (5th best offensive rebounding percentage according to KenPom in the nation, 174th best defensive percentage).

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Predictions:

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KenPom – 73-65 Bears win (74% chance for victory)

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Massey – 72-65 Bears win (74% chance for victory)

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TeamRanking – 68.4-62.1 Bears win (72.5% chance for victory)

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BearsIllustrated – 70-62 Bears win

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The Sooners are not a good shooting team, though they maintain a decent offense by playing at an average tempo and not turning the ball over much and getting a good amount of offensive rebounds. They are a balanced team, ranking 62nd in defense and 56th in offense according to KenPom. They struggle to shoot the 3-pointer well, which is the one area on defense that the Bears struggle with, though right now, the Bears are playing excellent defense.

\r\n\r\n

The Bears also do a great job of not sending teams to the foul line very much. Baylor is also much bigger in the post, especially the starting lineups, and loses little to nothing in terms of speed and agility. I expect the advanced stats to play out, and the Bears to take advantage of this good matchup at home and start conference play 6-1.

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Right now, there is little to no doubt who the best team in the Big 12 is. That would be Kansas, at 18-1 and undefeated in Big 12 play, the Jayhawks have separated from the pack. Second through sixth place though is wide open, with two teams looking to solidify a higher standing in the fray meeting Wednesday night in Waco, Texas. The Baylor Bears (14-5, 5-1) host the Oklahoma Sooners (13-5, 4-2) with both fighting to put themselves on that second line in the Big 12.

The Bears have won three games in a row following an embarrassing loss to the Jayhawks, while the Sooners are fresh off of their loss in Lawrence, Kansas. With the three wins, the Bears are starting to receive votes in both the AP and the Coaches poll for the first time in a few weeks. The Sooners have had a pretty good year in regards to their expectations. Lon Kruger in his second year in Norman has his team playing well. According to KenPom, they are just 3-5 against Top 100 teams and 1-3 if you look at the Top 75. Their best win is against rival Oklahoma State at home, but after that, you are looking at beating Ohio at home by 11 as their next best win.

However, the Sooners are playing much better this year and are trying to solidify themselves in the top half of the Big 12 again after a few down years. They are led by Senior Romero Osby, a freaky athletic 6-8 forward who has really developed into an all-around good player this year. He is averaging 14.4 points per game while making 50.6% of his shots. He is also their leading rebounder at 6.4 per game, and their top shot blocker at 0.9 per game. The transfer from Mississippi State in his second year at Oklahoma is one of the more athletic players in the Big 12, and is having a tremendous season. He is second in the Big 12 in scoring during league play (18 points per game through 6 contests) and is 9 in rebounding.

The Sooners have two other players averaging double figures scoring outputs per game in Amath M'Baye a 6-9 post player and Steven Pledger, their 6-4 marksman. Pledger is a very good shooter, and was their leading scorer last year. His scoring output is down this year, primarily to a big dip in his shooting percentages. However, he is an excellent shooter and the most likely matchup for A.J. Walton.

The player that has helped them improve the most though is a newcomer to the OU basketball program, true freshman Buddy Hield, a 6-3 point guard who has played very well and under control for the Sooners. He is a very good defensive player and does a good job of staying under control on offense. He only commits a turnover on 19.3% of his possessions (to compare Pierre Jackson is at 19.9% this year and 26% last year), and averages 9.4 points per game. He is good at getting steals and uses his size to get 4.7 rebounds per game.

This year the Sooners appear to be a more balanced and deeper team. They have no player averaging more than 26 minutes per game, but have 9 players over 16 minutes. Mind you, the

- If anyone saw the Sooners play the Texas Longhorns just over a week ago, you saw what Osby can do when he is at his best. 29 points on 60% shooting, 8 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists. He absolutely destroyed Texas from all over the place. He attacked them in the post, off the dribble and attacked the glass. He played with fire and led a huge run to turn the tides on Texas and take control of the game. He is a dynamic player and one that when playing fully invested can be the best player on the floor.

The Bears will have to make sure Osby doesn't take over the game, especially by getting the Baylor defenders in foul trouble. He is elite at drawing fouls, right now averaging 6.6 fouls drawn per 40 minutes (25 best in the nation) and he is a good free throw shooter as well, making 81.7% of his chances. The Bears are not the deepest team in the front court, with just three players logging the majority of the minutes, so they will have to play smart and keep Osby off of the foul line. Against Texas, he went to the foul line 11 times (though we know how much UT likes to send players to the foul line, especially post players).

While Steven Pledger has not been as great from 3-point range this year as he was last year (36.6% versus 41.6%) he is still an excellent shooter who is capable of taking over a game from 3-point range. Outside of him though, the sooners have few dependable options from outside. Buddy Hield makes only 30.4% of his 3-pointers despite taking more than 3 per game. In fact, the Sooners shoot just 31.9% from behind the arc as a team (250 in the country). If you take away Pledger from that group and make him convert tough chances, they have no one else on their team getting minutes that can stretch a defense dependably.

Neither the Sooners or the Bears are great rebounding teams, though they both have their strengths. Both are much better on the offensive glass than they are at clearing their own defensive end. However, the Bears are the better rebounding team, as they do a better job on offense and are close enough on defense to have the edge (overall a 0.3% edge or roughly 1 rebound per game).

Baylor has to do a good job of keeping them off the glass. Luckily, this is a matchup where the Bears size disadvantage at the small forward position won't hurt them too much, as Pledger is just 6-4 and averages .6 less rebound per game than the 6-1 AJ Walton. The Bears really depend on their three main post players to carry the load on the glass, as Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson are both average over 8 rebounds per game with Ricardo Gathers being an absolute beast on the glass in his limited minutes (5 best offensive rebounding percentage according to KenPom in the nation, 174 best defensive percentage).

KenPom – 73-65 Bears win (74% chance for victory)

Massey – 72-65 Bears win (74% chance for victory)

TeamRanking – 68.4-62.1 Bears win (72.5% chance for victory)

BearsIllustrated – 70-62 Bears win

The Sooners are not a good shooting team, though they maintain a decent offense by playing at an average tempo and not turning the ball over much and getting a good amount of offensive rebounds. They are a balanced team, ranking 62 in defense and 56 in offense according to KenPom. They struggle to shoot the 3-pointer well, which is the one area on defense that the Bears struggle with, though right now, the Bears are playing excellent defense.

The Bears also do a great job of not sending teams to the foul line very much. Baylor is also much bigger in the post, especially the starting lineups, and loses little to nothing in terms of speed and agility. I expect the advanced stats to play out, and the Bears to take advantage of this good matchup at home and start conference play 6-1.

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