Baylor vs Kansas State Preview

Baylor looks to continue its winning ways as it travels to Manhattan, Kansas to take on the Kansas State Wildcats.

With their second big win in a row, the Baylor Bears have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. They have taken care of business so far against the lower seeded teams in the Big 12, but the rest of the schedule doesn't have many more of those types of games left. It has teams ahead of them scattered all around, with Saturday night having the Bears traveling to Kansas State to take on the tied for first place Wildcats.

2012-2013

Baylor

Kansas State

Sagarin

19

28

KenPom

26

41

Massey

47

22

TeamRanking.com

45

18

RPI (ESPN)

49

22

BPI (ESPN)

28

41

AP Poll

NA

10

Coaches Poll

NA

11

These are the two teams in the Big 12 that have the largest discrepancies in terms of how some of the analytical sites rank them. The Bears rank goes as high as 19 and as low as 49, while Kansas State is up at 18 and way down at 41. Strangely for Kansas State, they are ranked 10th and 11th in the National polls, but statistically speaking, they are playing way over their heads. Let's take a look at one ranking that has the Bears ahead of KSU; KenPom.

KenPom bases his rankings off of efficiencies scores that are adjusted for pace. The Bears rank extremely well in regards to KenPom, 30th in offense and 34th in defense. Kansas State on the other hand ranks 38th in offense and 53rd in defense, worse than Baylor in both. But, there is one area where the Wildcats have the Bears destroyed…Luck. Pomeroy's definition of luck is the following:

NCAA Basketball Stats

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

The Wildcats rank 18th in the country, while the Bears rank 339th (out of 347 teams). That is a HUGE difference. Now, before you start screaming at me that the Bears haven't been unlucky, I agree with you. But, have the Wildcats been a little lucky so far? They are 3-0 in games decided by less than 3 points, with those wins coming over Delaware, George Washington, and Oklahoma. They played a relatively weak non-conference schedule except for two huge games (loss against Gonzaga and a win against Florida).

Starring for the Wildcats this year has been my personal choice for Big 12 player of the year so far, Rodney McGruder. The 6-4 shooting guard is 4th in the Big 12 in scoring during conference play, and adds 5 rebounds per game and 2 assists. He is also a very good defender, and someone that just does everything well on the basketball court. He is also one of the more efficient players in the country, making 44.6% of his 3-pointers during Big 12 play and 49.3% of his shots from the floor. Those are excellent numbers for a shooting guard, and you have to imagine that his points per game would be much higher if the Wildcats didn't play at such a terribly slow tempo (284th in the country).

NCAA Basketball Stats

Alongside McGruder in the back court is sophomore point guard Angel Rodriguez, a shoot-first point guard. The 5-11 guard is a good defender, and offensively, does a good job of getting teammates involved, but does have a tendency to take some bad shots, and get into too much of a one-on-one battle with the opposing point guard.

The other starting guard is Will Spradling, a junior who is much more of a shooter than a play maker. He is steady with the ball and makes good plays all over the court, but his major strength is his outside shot. The Wildcat 3-guard lineup carries quite a bit of the load for them, as they are all the three top scorers for Kansas State, averaging a combined 33.8 points per game (Almost 50% of their team points per game).

But the inside guys for Kansas State don't just sit in the paint doing nothing. They have a diverse group that can play the power forward and center position for them. Last game, they started Shane Southwell, a 6-6 small forward down low next to 6-11 center Jordan Henriquez. Southwell is a very good shooter and is a very good offensive player. He is also one of the best all-around players, as he is very similar to Rodney McGruder in terms of his all-around play.

Henriquez is a developing post player, even as a senior. They don't run a lot of sets for him offensively, but he is a capable scorer. He is not a very strong player, but at 250 pounds, can push around some of the smaller post players. Where he does most of his work though is defense, where he averages 1.8 blocks in just 15 minutes per game.

Their other main post player is Thomas Gipson, one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. In just 19.3 minutes per game, he averages 5.4 rebounds per game, including 2.54 offensive rebounds. They Wildcat post players rotate in and out quickly, as they go 5 deep, with all of them getting at least 10 minutes per game.

Keys to the Game –

-Keep them off the offensive glass – Thomas Gipson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country, getting the 25th highest percentage of offensive rebounds available to him while on the court. As a team, they get 12.5 offensive rebounds per game, the 16th highest mark in the country. They collect 37.9% of their missed shots, also the 16th highest rate. They do this primarily with their post players along with Rodney McGruder, who has pulled down 51 offensive rebounds this year, a very high amount for a wing player.

-Guard from the outside in – The Wildcats have truly dynamic shooters from the outside, but not all of their offense is just long jumpers. They do a really good job of getting into the paint off of dribble penetration. None of their post players are exceptional at sealing their man and getting into great post position for a pass from the perimeter. They are much better when moving around, and finding cutting lanes around the sinking defense as a guard gets into the paint.

All of that is not to say that they can't beat you from behind the arc, which they can. McGruder, Martavious Irving and Shane Southwell are all really good 3-point shooters, with Rodriquez and Spradling being capable as well. They shoot 35.8% from behind the arc on the season (92nd best) but have improved to a Big 12 best 38.9% in conference play.

-Speed them up – There is no doubt that this game will be a battle of tempos. The Wildcats want to play real slow, and the Bears want to play faster. Both teams play much better in their tempos of choice. So the Bears have to push the ball off of rebounds (going back to key #1) and try and hit them in transition. Baylor is at its best when they can get out and run a little.

With a player as fast as Pierre Jackson, you can do push the ball relatively easy off of turnovers, rebounds or even a made basket. The Bears just have to run and make sure they are aggressive when they have a chance, as the Kansas State transition defense is not that strong, primarily due to them crashing the offensive glass extremely hard. Easy point will be like gold in this game.

Predictions –

KenPom – Bears lose 66-64 (42% chance for win)

Massey – Bears lose 68-64 (36% chance for win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears lose 65-61

If the Bears can get out and run a lot this game, I think they will win. Too bad I have my doubts about them doing this, especially against a team that doesn't turn the ball over much (just 18.5% of possessions end in a turnover) and one that rebounds at an elite level on the offensive glass. I also think that with their athletes at the wing positions, they will be able to slow down the Bears guards, as Pierre Jackson has struggled against taller guards and I expect them to put McGruder or Southwell on him at times. This game should be close though, and one of these two teams has won close games and the other hasn't. I guess I am just expecting the year-long trends to continue.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

\r\n\r\n

The Wildcats rank 18th in the country, while the Bears rank 339th (out of 347 teams). That is a HUGE difference. Now, before you start screaming at me that the Bears haven't been unlucky, I agree with you. But, have the Wildcats been a little lucky so far? They are 3-0 in games decided by less than 3 points, with those wins coming over Delaware, George Washington, and Oklahoma. They played a relatively weak non-conference schedule except for two huge games (loss against Gonzaga and a win against Florida).

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Starring for the Wildcats this year has been my personal choice for Big 12 player of the year so far, Rodney McGruder. The 6-4 shooting guard is 4th in the Big 12 in scoring during conference play, and adds 5 rebounds per game and 2 assists. He is also a very good defender, and someone that just does everything well on the basketball court. He is also one of the more efficient players in the country, making 44.6% of his 3-pointers during Big 12 play and 49.3% of his shots from the floor. Those are excellent numbers for a shooting guard, and you have to imagine that his points per game would be much higher if the Wildcats didn't play at such a terribly slow tempo (284th in the country).

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\r\n\r\n \r\n NCAA Basketball Stats\r\n\r\n
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Alongside McGruder in the back court is sophomore point guard Angel Rodriguez, a shoot-first point guard. The 5-11 guard is a good defender, and offensively, does a good job of getting teammates involved, but does have a tendency to take some bad shots, and get into too much of a one-on-one battle with the opposing point guard.

\r\n\r\n

The other starting guard is Will Spradling, a junior who is much more of a shooter than a play maker. He is steady with the ball and makes good plays all over the court, but his major strength is his outside shot. The Wildcat 3-guard lineup carries quite a bit of the load for them, as they are all the three top scorers for Kansas State, averaging a combined 33.8 points per game (Almost 50% of their team points per game).

\r\n\r\n

But the inside guys for Kansas State don't just sit in the paint doing nothing. They have a diverse group that can play the power forward and center position for them. Last game, they started Shane Southwell, a 6-6 small forward down low next to 6-11 center Jordan Henriquez. Southwell is a very good shooter and is a very good offensive player. He is also one of the best all-around players, as he is very similar to Rodney McGruder in terms of his all-around play.

\r\n\r\n

Henriquez is a developing post player, even as a senior. They don't run a lot of sets for him offensively, but he is a capable scorer. He is not a very strong player, but at 250 pounds, can push around some of the smaller post players. Where he does most of his work though is defense, where he averages 1.8 blocks in just 15 minutes per game.

\r\n\r\n

Their other main post player is Thomas Gipson, one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. In just 19.3 minutes per game, he averages 5.4 rebounds per game, including 2.54 offensive rebounds. They Wildcat post players rotate in and out quickly, as they go 5 deep, with all of them getting at least 10 minutes per game.

\r\n\r\n

Keys to the Game –

\r\n\r\n

-Keep them off the offensive glass – Thomas Gipson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country, getting the 25th highest percentage of offensive rebounds available to him while on the court. As a team, they get 12.5 offensive rebounds per game, the 16th highest mark in the country. They collect 37.9% of their missed shots, also the 16th highest rate. They do this primarily with their post players along with Rodney McGruder, who has pulled down 51 offensive rebounds this year, a very high amount for a wing player.

\r\n\r\n

-Guard from the outside in – The Wildcats have truly dynamic shooters from the outside, but not all of their offense is just long jumpers. They do a really good job of getting into the paint off of dribble penetration. None of their post players are exceptional at sealing their man and getting into great post position for a pass from the perimeter. They are much better when moving around, and finding cutting lanes around the sinking defense as a guard gets into the paint.

\r\n\r\n

All of that is not to say that they can't beat you from behind the arc, which they can. McGruder, Martavious Irving and Shane Southwell are all really good 3-point shooters, with Rodriquez and Spradling being capable as well. They shoot 35.8% from behind the arc on the season (92nd best) but have improved to a Big 12 best 38.9% in conference play.

\r\n\r\n

-Speed them up – There is no doubt that this game will be a battle of tempos. The Wildcats want to play real slow, and the Bears want to play faster. Both teams play much better in their tempos of choice. So the Bears have to push the ball off of rebounds (going back to key #1) and try and hit them in transition. Baylor is at its best when they can get out and run a little.

\r\n\r\n

With a player as fast as Pierre Jackson, you can do push the ball relatively easy off of turnovers, rebounds or even a made basket. The Bears just have to run and make sure they are aggressive when they have a chance, as the Kansas State transition defense is not that strong, primarily due to them crashing the offensive glass extremely hard. Easy point will be like gold in this game.

\r\n\r\n

Predictions –

\r\n\r\n

KenPom – Bears lose 66-64 (42% chance for win)

\r\n\r\n

Massey – Bears lose 68-64 (36% chance for win)

\r\n\r\n

BearsIllustrated – Bears lose 65-61

\r\n\r\n

If the Bears can get out and run a lot this game, I think they will win. Too bad I have my doubts about them doing this, especially against a team that doesn't turn the ball over much (just 18.5% of possessions end in a turnover) and one that rebounds at an elite level on the offensive glass. I also think that with their athletes at the wing positions, they will be able to slow down the Bears guards, as Pierre Jackson has struggled against taller guards and I expect them to put McGruder or Southwell on him at times. This game should be close though, and one of these two teams has won close games and the other hasn't. I guess I am just expecting the year-long trends to continue.

\r\n","mobileBody":"

With their second big win in a row, the Baylor Bears have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. They have taken care of business so far against the lower seeded teams in the Big 12, but the rest of the schedule doesn't have many more of those types of games left. It has teams ahead of them scattered all around, with Saturday night having the Bears traveling to Kansas State to take on the tied for first place Wildcats.

These are the two teams in the Big 12 that have the largest discrepancies in terms of how some of the analytical sites rank them. The Bears rank goes as high as 19 and as low as 49, while Kansas State is up at 18 and way down at 41. Strangely for Kansas State, they are ranked 10 and 11 in the National polls, but statistically speaking, they are playing way over their heads. Let's take a look at one ranking that has the Bears ahead of KSU; KenPom.

KenPom bases his rankings off of efficiencies scores that are adjusted for pace. The Bears rank extremely well in regards to KenPom, 30 in offense and 34 in defense. Kansas State on the other hand ranks 38 in offense and 53 in defense, worse than Baylor in both. But, there is one area where the Wildcats have the Bears destroyed…Luck. Pomeroy's definition of luck is the following:

The Wildcats rank 18 in the country, while the Bears rank 339 (out of 347 teams). That is a HUGE difference. Now, before you start screaming at me that the Bears haven't been unlucky, I agree with you. But, have the Wildcats been a little lucky so far? They are 3-0 in games decided by less than 3 points, with those wins coming over Delaware, George Washington, and Oklahoma. They played a relatively weak non-conference schedule except for two huge games (loss against Gonzaga and a win against Florida).

Starring for the Wildcats this year has been my personal choice for Big 12 player of the year so far, Rodney McGruder. The 6-4 shooting guard is 4 in the Big 12 in scoring during conference play, and adds 5 rebounds per game and 2 assists. He is also a very good defender, and someone that just does everything well on the basketball court. He is also one of the more efficient players in the country, making 44.6% of his 3-pointers during Big 12 play and 49.3% of his shots from the floor. Those are excellent numbers for a shooting guard, and you have to imagine that his points per game would be much higher if the Wildcats didn't play at such a terribly slow tempo (284 in the country).

Alongside McGruder in the back court is sophomore point guard Angel Rodriguez, a shoot-first point guard. The 5-11 guard is a good defender, and offensively, does a good job of getting teammates involved, but does have a tendency to take some bad shots, and get into too much of a one-on-one battle with the opposing point guard.

The other starting guard is Will Spradling, a junior who is much more of a shooter than a play maker. He is steady with the ball and makes good plays all over the court, but his major strength is his outside shot. The Wildcat 3-guard lineup carries quite a bit of the load for them, as they are all the three top scorers for Kansas State, averaging a combined 33.8 points per game (Almost 50% of their team points per game).

But the inside guys for Kansas State don't just sit in the paint doing nothing. They have a diverse group that can play the power forward and center position for them. Last game, they started Shane Southwell, a 6-6 small forward down low next to 6-11 center Jordan Henriquez. Southwell is a very good shooter and is a very good offensive player. He is also one of the best all-around players, as he is very similar to Rodney McGruder in terms of his all-around play.

Henriquez is a developing post player, even as a senior. They don't run a lot of sets for him offensively, but he is a capable scorer. He is not a very strong player, but at 250 pounds, can push around some of the smaller post players. Where he does most of his work though is defense, where he averages 1.8 blocks in just 15 minutes per game.

Their other main post player is Thomas Gipson, one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. In just 19.3 minutes per game, he averages 5.4 rebounds per game, including 2.54 offensive rebounds. They Wildcat post players rotate in and out quickly, as they go 5 deep, with all of them getting at least 10 minutes per game.

- – Thomas Gipson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country, getting the 25 highest percentage of offensive rebounds available to him while on the court. As a team, they get 12.5 offensive rebounds per game, the 16 highest mark in the country. They collect 37.9% of their missed shots, also the 16 highest rate. They do this primarily with their post players along with Rodney McGruder, who has pulled down 51 offensive rebounds this year, a very high amount for a wing player.

- The Wildcats have truly dynamic shooters from the outside, but not all of their offense is just long jumpers. They do a really good job of getting into the paint off of dribble penetration. None of their post players are exceptional at sealing their man and getting into great post position for a pass from the perimeter. They are much better when moving around, and finding cutting lanes around the sinking defense as a guard gets into the paint.

All of that is not to say that they can't beat you from behind the arc, which they can. McGruder, Martavious Irving and Shane Southwell are all really good 3-point shooters, with Rodriquez and Spradling being capable as well. They shoot 35.8% from behind the arc on the season (92 best) but have improved to a Big 12 best 38.9% in conference play.

- – There is no doubt that this game will be a battle of tempos. The Wildcats want to play real slow, and the Bears want to play faster. Both teams play much better in their tempos of choice. So the Bears have to push the ball off of rebounds (going back to key #1) and try and hit them in transition. Baylor is at its best when they can get out and run a little.

With a player as fast as Pierre Jackson, you can do push the ball relatively easy off of turnovers, rebounds or even a made basket. The Bears just have to run and make sure they are aggressive when they have a chance, as the Kansas State transition defense is not that strong, primarily due to them crashing the offensive glass extremely hard. Easy point will be like gold in this game.

If the Bears can get out and run a lot this game, I think they will win. Too bad I have my doubts about them doing this, especially against a team that doesn't turn the ball over much (just 18.5% of possessions end in a turnover) and one that rebounds at an elite level on the offensive glass. I also think that with their athletes at the wing positions, they will be able to slow down the Bears guards, as Pierre Jackson has struggled against taller guards and I expect them to put McGruder or Southwell on him at times. This game should be close though, and one of these two teams has won close games and the other hasn't. I guess I am just expecting the year-long trends to continue.

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