Baylor vs Iowa State Preview

The Bears are coming hope licking their wounds again after a failed rip to an upper-tier Big 12 team's gym. With Iowa State coming home, is this a game the Bears have to win to get to the NCAA tournament?

To say that the Bears need this win to stabilize their NCAA tournament hopes is an understatement. The Bears have to have this win, or they will have to pull off a huge upset to have a chance at the big boy postseason.

2012-2013

Baylor

Iowa State

Sagarin

24

36

KenPom

37

36

Massey

52

58

TeamRanking.com

47

48

RPI (ESPN)

55

46

BPI (ESPN)

34

35

AP Poll

NA

NA

Coaches Poll

NA

NA

The Cyclones are tied with the Bears in the Big 12 standings, and have already protected their home court against Baylor. However, the Cyclones have been a terrible road team, losing five of six conference road games. Their lone win is against TCU, and has already lost to Texas Tech and Texas, two teams the Bears have beaten at home.

Iowa State brings to Waco one of the more explosive offensive teams in the country. They are 12th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, primarily due to their 3-point shooting. They make 36.9% of their 3-point shots (50th in the country) and get 36.2% of their total points from behind the 3-point line (17th highest percentage in the country). Forty-two percent of their shot attempts are 3-pointers.

They live and die by the three-pointer. On the road, they shoot a little bit worse percentage wise, but actually make 1 more per road contest. The splits get even worse if you take out the first Baylor game (where they shot 4 or 24). Without that game included, they shoot over 5% worse from behind the arc on the road. That is a BIG difference.

NCAA Basketball Stats

While the Cyclones probably won't shoot as poorly as they did against the Bears in the first game, they probably won't shoot 60% from inside the arc again, a ridiculously high number. The Bears defense has to get better, especially in the mid-range as they have struggled against this year at stopping shots in the middle. They are great in the interior and are pretty good against the 3-point shot, but in that mid-range zone, they are abysmal.

What Happened Last Time:

Baylor lost 79-71 in a game that was within four points either way until the 9 minute mark of the second half. The lead changed hands until the Cyclones went on an 11-3 run to get the lead for good. The Bears were led by Pierre Jackson who scored 23 points, but only one other Bear joined him in double figures, with the unlikely A.J. Walton scoring 13 points. Iowa State was led by Will Clyburn, who torched the Bears all over the court for 28 points and Georges Niang who picked apart the Bears interior for 17 points.

NCAA Basketball

Keys to the Game:

-Slow down their star wing player – For the second game in a row, the Bears will run into a tall and dynamic wing player that will garner all-conference honors at the end of the season. This time, it is Will Clyburn, a 6-7 small forward/power forward who Scott Drew will have to figure out how to slow down. In the Bears' defense, they actually did a great job against Kansas State in slowing down their star small forward; too bad to do achieve that feat, they let every other Wildcat score on them. Clyburn is not the defensive player McGruder is, or is he as efficient offensively, but he might be more explosive when he is on his game, as the Bears probably remember from a few weeks ago.

The key to slowing down Clyburn is to force him to shoot longer shots. He is great in the mid-range game, and very good when he gets a few dribbles and stops for a jumper. However, he is streaky as a spot-up shooter. He has only made 30.6% of his 3-pointers (though he did make 3-6 against Baylor earlier this year). The Bears also have to defend him without fouling, something that they failed completely to do in Ames, as he paraded to the foul line 12 times and converting 11 of those chances.

-Make them feel the road blues – I truly believe that if you get up quick against Iowa State on the road, that they will fold. They have been a terrible road team all year, and you can't let them stay in the game, especially with their great 3-point shooting. Baylor has to start quick and open up a lead, especially if the Cyclones come out cold, as they did when the Bears lost up there. The Cyclones missed their first 3-pointers almost 24 minutes into the game. Unfortunately, the Bears could only build a 3-point lead while the Cyclones were bricking their bread and butter shot.

-Don't waste chances – I want to speak about two areas that got the Bears destroyed against Kansas State here; the lack of offensive rebounds and turnovers. Baylor has been a very good offensive rebounding team all year, but struggled terribly against the Wildcats. Against the Cyclones, they got 10 offensive rebounds, and 12 second chance points. Baylor has to win not only the offensive glass, but make sure they are converting those into points.

Too many times, the Baylor post player will go up quickly with the second chance shot, rather than reset the offense, or find the open 3-point shooter. With two of the best spot-up shooters in the Big 12, the Bear post players have to be aware enough to kick it out to Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip for those open threes.

The other issue is turnovers. Quite simply, their ball security against Kansas State was pathetic. If they get over 15 turnovers in this game, they won't win. Baylor is starting to shoot the ball better (an issue earlier in the year) so at least give yourself a shot to make a basket. Baylor ha to protect the ball and make sure run the offense and get a good look.

Predictions:

KenPom – Bears win 77-73 (63% chance for win)

Massey – Bears win 78-73 (70% chance for win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 81-76

These are two of the three highest scoring teams during Big 12 conference play, with the Cylcones averaging 75.7 points per game, and the Bears at 69.5 points per game. The Bears have found their shooting stroke the past few games, and I expect that to continue against a below-average defense. This should be a high scoring game, with a lot of three-pointers, but not a lot of fast break or transition basketball. Both of these teams don't force a lot of turnovers; however they are turning into two of the better shooting teams in the Big 12. Baylor will have enough fire power this time, with Brady Heslip out of his slump and the Bears will get that much needed win.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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While the Cyclones probably won't shoot as poorly as they did against the Bears in the first game, they probably won't shoot 60% from inside the arc again, a ridiculously high number. The Bears defense has to get better, especially in the mid-range as they have struggled against this year at stopping shots in the middle. They are great in the interior and are pretty good against the 3-point shot, but in that mid-range zone, they are abysmal.

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What Happened Last Time:

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Baylor lost 79-71 in a game that was within four points either way until the 9 minute mark of the second half. The lead changed hands until the Cyclones went on an 11-3 run to get the lead for good. The Bears were led by Pierre Jackson who scored 23 points, but only one other Bear joined him in double figures, with the unlikely A.J. Walton scoring 13 points. Iowa State was led by Will Clyburn, who torched the Bears all over the court for 28 points and Georges Niang who picked apart the Bears interior for 17 points.

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Keys to the Game:

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-Slow down their star wing player – For the second game in a row, the Bears will run into a tall and dynamic wing player that will garner all-conference honors at the end of the season. This time, it is Will Clyburn, a 6-7 small forward/power forward who Scott Drew will have to figure out how to slow down. In the Bears' defense, they actually did a great job against Kansas State in slowing down their star small forward; too bad to do achieve that feat, they let every other Wildcat score on them. Clyburn is not the defensive player McGruder is, or is he as efficient offensively, but he might be more explosive when he is on his game, as the Bears probably remember from a few weeks ago.

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The key to slowing down Clyburn is to force him to shoot longer shots. He is great in the mid-range game, and very good when he gets a few dribbles and stops for a jumper. However, he is streaky as a spot-up shooter. He has only made 30.6% of his 3-pointers (though he did make 3-6 against Baylor earlier this year). The Bears also have to defend him without fouling, something that they failed completely to do in Ames, as he paraded to the foul line 12 times and converting 11 of those chances.

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-Make them feel the road blues – I truly believe that if you get up quick against Iowa State on the road, that they will fold. They have been a terrible road team all year, and you can't let them stay in the game, especially with their great 3-point shooting. Baylor has to start quick and open up a lead, especially if the Cyclones come out cold, as they did when the Bears lost up there. The Cyclones missed their first 3-pointers almost 24 minutes into the game. Unfortunately, the Bears could only build a 3-point lead while the Cyclones were bricking their bread and butter shot.

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-Don't waste chances – I want to speak about two areas that got the Bears destroyed against Kansas State here; the lack of offensive rebounds and turnovers. Baylor has been a very good offensive rebounding team all year, but struggled terribly against the Wildcats. Against the Cyclones, they got 10 offensive rebounds, and 12 second chance points. Baylor has to win not only the offensive glass, but make sure they are converting those into points.

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Too many times, the Baylor post player will go up quickly with the second chance shot, rather than reset the offense, or find the open 3-point shooter. With two of the best spot-up shooters in the Big 12, the Bear post players have to be aware enough to kick it out to Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip for those open threes.

\r\n\r\n

The other issue is turnovers. Quite simply, their ball security against Kansas State was pathetic. If they get over 15 turnovers in this game, they won't win. Baylor is starting to shoot the ball better (an issue earlier in the year) so at least give yourself a shot to make a basket. Baylor ha to protect the ball and make sure run the offense and get a good look.

\r\n\r\n

Predictions:

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KenPom – Bears win 77-73 (63% chance for win)

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Massey – Bears win 78-73 (70% chance for win)

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BearsIllustrated – Bears win 81-76

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These are two of the three highest scoring teams during Big 12 conference play, with the Cylcones averaging 75.7 points per game, and the Bears at 69.5 points per game. The Bears have found their shooting stroke the past few games, and I expect that to continue against a below-average defense. This should be a high scoring game, with a lot of three-pointers, but not a lot of fast break or transition basketball. Both of these teams don't force a lot of turnovers; however they are turning into two of the better shooting teams in the Big 12. Baylor will have enough fire power this time, with Brady Heslip out of his slump and the Bears will get that much needed win.

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To say that the Bears need this win to stabilize their NCAA tournament hopes is an understatement. The Bears have to have this win, or they will have to pull off a huge upset to have a chance at the big boy postseason.

The Cyclones are tied with the Bears in the Big 12 standings, and have already protected their home court against Baylor. However, the Cyclones have been a terrible road team, losing five of six conference road games. Their lone win is against TCU, and has already lost to Texas Tech and Texas, two teams the Bears have beaten at home.

Iowa State brings to Waco one of the more explosive offensive teams in the country. They are 12 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, primarily due to their 3-point shooting. They make 36.9% of their 3-point shots (50 in the country) and get 36.2% of their total points from behind the 3-point line (17 highest percentage in the country). Forty-two percent of their shot attempts are 3-pointers.

They live and die by the three-pointer. On the road, they shoot a little bit worse percentage wise, but actually make 1 more per road contest. The splits get even worse if you take out the first Baylor game (where they shot 4 or 24). Without that game included, they shoot over 5% worse from behind the arc on the road. That is a BIG difference.

While the Cyclones probably won't shoot as poorly as they did against the Bears in the first game, they probably won't shoot 60% from inside the arc again, a ridiculously high number. The Bears defense has to get better, especially in the mid-range as they have struggled against this year at stopping shots in the middle. They are great in the interior and are pretty good against the 3-point shot, but in that mid-range zone, they are abysmal.

:

Baylor lost 79-71 in a game that was within four points either way until the 9 minute mark of the second half. The lead changed hands until the Cyclones went on an 11-3 run to get the lead for good. The Bears were led by Pierre Jackson who scored 23 points, but only one other Bear joined him in double figures, with the unlikely A.J. Walton scoring 13 points. Iowa State was led by Will Clyburn, who torched the Bears all over the court for 28 points and Georges Niang who picked apart the Bears interior for 17 points.

- For the second game in a row, the Bears will run into a tall and dynamic wing player that will garner all-conference honors at the end of the season. This time, it is Will Clyburn, a 6-7 small forward/power forward who Scott Drew will have to figure out how to slow down. In the Bears' defense, they actually did a great job against Kansas State in slowing down their star small forward; too bad to do achieve that feat, they let every other Wildcat score on them. Clyburn is not the defensive player McGruder is, or is he as efficient offensively, but he might be more explosive when he is on his game, as the Bears probably remember from a few weeks ago.

The key to slowing down Clyburn is to force him to shoot longer shots. He is great in the mid-range game, and very good when he gets a few dribbles and stops for a jumper. However, he is streaky as a spot-up shooter. He has only made 30.6% of his 3-pointers (though he did make 3-6 against Baylor earlier this year). The Bears also have to defend him without fouling, something that they failed completely to do in Ames, as he paraded to the foul line 12 times and converting 11 of those chances.

- – I truly believe that if you get up quick against Iowa State on the road, that they will fold. They have been a terrible road team all year, and you can't let them stay in the game, especially with their great 3-point shooting. Baylor has to start quick and open up a lead, especially if the Cyclones come out cold, as they did when the Bears lost up there. The Cyclones missed their first 3-pointers almost 24 minutes into the game. Unfortunately, the Bears could only build a 3-point lead while the Cyclones were bricking their bread and butter shot.

- – I want to speak about two areas that got the Bears destroyed against Kansas State here; the lack of offensive rebounds and turnovers. Baylor has been a very good offensive rebounding team all year, but struggled terribly against the Wildcats. Against the Cyclones, they got 10 offensive rebounds, and 12 second chance points. Baylor has to win not only the offensive glass, but make sure they are converting those into points.

Too many times, the Baylor post player will go up quickly with the second chance shot, rather than reset the offense, or find the open 3-point shooter. With two of the best spot-up shooters in the Big 12, the Bear post players have to be aware enough to kick it out to Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip for those open threes.

The other issue is turnovers. Quite simply, their ball security against Kansas State was pathetic. If they get over 15 turnovers in this game, they won't win. Baylor is starting to shoot the ball better (an issue earlier in the year) so at least give yourself a shot to make a basket. Baylor ha to protect the ball and make sure run the offense and get a good look.

KenPom – Bears win 77-73 (63% chance for win)

Massey – Bears win 78-73 (70% chance for win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears win 81-76

These are two of the three highest scoring teams during Big 12 conference play, with the Cylcones averaging 75.7 points per game, and the Bears at 69.5 points per game. The Bears have found their shooting stroke the past few games, and I expect that to continue against a below-average defense. This should be a high scoring game, with a lot of three-pointers, but not a lot of fast break or transition basketball. Both of these teams don't force a lot of turnovers; however they are turning into two of the better shooting teams in the Big 12. Baylor will have enough fire power this time, with Brady Heslip out of his slump and the Bears will get that much needed win.

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