Baylor vs Kansas State Preview

With the Bears still clinging to post-season dreams, they welcome to Waco a huge opportunity for a marquee win against one of the top teams in the Big 12. What do they need to do to stun the Wildcats? Find out inside.

Off the losing streak and back in the winning column, the Bears hopes are on a big of an uptick. Add to that the fact that they finally won a game decided by fewer than five points (0-6 previously) and you might be able to sense some optimism in Waco. However, with just 3 games left, the schedule is heavy for home games, but also heavy in terms of the caliber of opponents left to face.

This Saturday, the Bears host the Kansas State Wildcats, 23-5 on the year and tied for first place in the Big 12 at 12-3. The Wildcats are ranked 13th in both the Coaches and AP polls right now, and have been ranked in the Top 25 for most of the year. However, the analytical sites really are not fans of the Wildcats, with KenPom ranking them 32nd and ESPN's BPI metric at 33rd.

2012-2013

Baylor

Kansas State

Sagarin

36

21

KenPom

49

32

Massey

61

17

TeamRanking.com

59

13

RPI (ESPN)

59

21

BPI (ESPN)

46

33

AP Poll

NA

13

Coaches Poll

NA

13

Personally, I am in the camp that they are closer to 13th than 33rd. The Wildcats worst loss is at Iowa State. Their other losses are to Michigan, Gonzaga, and Kansas twice. So they have lost to 3 teams that have been ranked in the top 5 for most of the year, and a solid NCAA tournament team with one of the best home court advantages in the nation.

KSU is led by their sophomore point guard, Angel Rodriquez, a key in their earlier win over the Bears. The starting point guard averages 11 points per game along with over 5 assists. Their leading scorer is Rodney McGruder a 6-4 wing player with great natural scoring ability. He is one of the best all-around players in the Big 12, and someone that the Bears should be well equipped to handle with A.J. Walton or Deuce Bello.

College Basketball

In the post, the Wildcats have some interesting options in all sorts of sizes and styles. Shane Southwell is just 6-6, but plays quite a bit of minutes at power forward. He is a tough matchup for the Bears, when they have two true post players out on the floor, as one has to challenge him on the perimeter (something that the Bears completely failed to do last game). Also in the post is 6-11 Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, a very tantalizing center with great potential. Too bad he is a senior now, so the potential has more been a tease to what he could be versus what he has actually turned into.

Roberts has struggled quite a bit this year, averaging less than 5 points and 5 rebounds per game, but he saved by far his best game for the Bears earlier in the year, with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes. This was his only double digit scoring game, but he usually does make an impact on defense, as a very good shot blocker. He had 5 in the earlier game this year (tied for a season high).

Also down low for the Wildcats is 6-7 Thomas Gipson, a bulldog of a power forward, at 6-7 and 270 pounds. They also play Adrian Diaz down low as well, as they go for more of a balanced approach with no player getting more than around 20 minutes per game down low.

In fact, this is a very balanced team in terms of minutes, as they have 11 guys getting more than 8 minutes per game. They really only have two big minute guys in McGruder and guard Will Spradling who will play both the shooting guard and point guard position for the Wildcats. They also are balanced when it comes to scoring, with 5 guys averaging more than 8 points per game.

The Wildcats are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, getting the 12th highest percentage of rebounds on the offensive glass (39.1%) primarily due to the elite efforts of Gipson who has the 28th highest individual percentage (14.8%). They use this skill to inflate their offense, as they are pretty average in terms of shooting from all over the court, and they do a pretty bad job of getting to the foul line.

They are a solid defensive team, which likes to switch on screens and play up on the offensive player, especially on the perimeter. Rodriquez in particular is a very aggressive defender, who averages 1.5 steals per game. With McGruder and Southwell manning the small forward spot, they always have good size on the wings, which allow them to switch quite a bit and not lose much post defense down low.

What happened last time?

The bears were absolutely destroyed by the Wildcats, 80-60 on the road. Pierre Jackson had his worst game of the year (season low 7 points, 5 turnovers) and was dominated by his counterpart Angel Rodriquez (22 points, 10 assists). The Bears shot the ball well, but committed 19 turnovers and could never find a rhytyhm to keep up with the Wildcats. KSU kept extending the lead all game, especially in the last 10 minutes of either half, where they outscored the Bears 52-31.

College Basketball

Keys to the Game

-Have the best Point Guard – Pierre Jackson had his worst game as a Bear this year against Kansas State, and was abused by the hyper-active Angel Rodriquez on both sides of the court. When the Bears lose the point guard matchup as badly as they did here, they don't stand a chance. Jackson has to be the best point guard out there, and probably the best player on the court for the Bears to have a chance to win this game. Pierre has to be a difference maker on both sides of the court. He can't just play well on offense, he has to challenge jump shots, get around screens and disrupt passing lanes.

-Contest shots – Too often, the Wildcats were shooting open jumpers usually obtained by having a shooter run through a series of screens and pin downs to get him open. Baylor struggled all night fighting through screens and challenging shots. In particular was the Bears coverage of Shane Southwell, one of the best spot up shooters in the Big 12. Southwell made 6 of 9 three point shots on his way to an 18 point game. He had open shots in the corner and the wing on pretty much all of those. Baylor has to find a way to break the tempo of the Wildcats active motion offense that always has guys in motion. Baylor has struggled all year with offenses like this, mainly due to lapses in help defense, or terrible defensive rotations.

-Pound it in – Baylor's offense has always worked better inside-out. By that I mean, when the ball touches the paint, good things tend to happen. If it is by dribble penetration of Pierre Jackson or the seldom AJ Walton drive, or just a simple post up by one of the Baylor post players, good things happen when the Bears force the defense to collapse a little. While both of the Baylor freshman posts have struggled with double-teams at times, and force up too many shots in post-up situation, those sets and schemes are much more effective than the late pick and roll action that far too many of our offensive possessions devolve into.

The Bear post players have to do a better job of sealing their man, but also helping each other out. In some of the best games we have had, we have seen the post players setting screens for each other, and also feeding each other for open looks. It is no coincidence that Isaiah Austin has started to come back from his slump in the middle of Big 12 play. During a 6 game stretch where he struggled on offense, he had just 1 assist total. Read that again. In 6 games, Austin had just 1 assist. With him playing better the past two games, he has 5 assists in those contests. When Austin passes the ball, he is a better player and the Bears are a better offense.

Predictions

KenPom – Bears win 68-66 (58% chance for win)

Massey – Bears win 68-66 (54% chance for win)

BearsIllustrated – Bears lose 71-67

Honestly, call me shocked that both of these sites actually favor the Bears. It must be the raucous home court advantage they have had all year. Oh wait, the Bears have lost 4 home games already this year to College of Charleston, Northwestern, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Well then, it must be that we played them so tough on the road, right? Oh that's right; we lost by 20 in Manhattan on February 16th. Well maybe it is because KSU is struggling down the stretch. Nope, wrong again, they are 8-1 in their last nine games.

Well, I don't get it. This is the same Baylor team that has struggled to beat the better teams in the Big 12 all year (just 1-7 against teams ahead of them in the Big 12 standings), and one that won for the third time in their last nine games. I think Kansas State is just simply a much better team than the Bears, and one that won't win in the dominant fashion we saw a few weeks ago, but will leave Waco with another road win under their belts.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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In the post, the Wildcats have some interesting options in all sorts of sizes and styles. Shane Southwell is just 6-6, but plays quite a bit of minutes at power forward. He is a tough matchup for the Bears, when they have two true post players out on the floor, as one has to challenge him on the perimeter (something that the Bears completely failed to do last game). Also in the post is 6-11 Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, a very tantalizing center with great potential. Too bad he is a senior now, so the potential has more been a tease to what he could be versus what he has actually turned into.

\r\n\r\n

Roberts has struggled quite a bit this year, averaging less than 5 points and 5 rebounds per game, but he saved by far his best game for the Bears earlier in the year, with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes. This was his only double digit scoring game, but he usually does make an impact on defense, as a very good shot blocker. He had 5 in the earlier game this year (tied for a season high).

\r\n\r\n

Also down low for the Wildcats is 6-7 Thomas Gipson, a bulldog of a power forward, at 6-7 and 270 pounds. They also play Adrian Diaz down low as well, as they go for more of a balanced approach with no player getting more than around 20 minutes per game down low.

\r\n\r\n

In fact, this is a very balanced team in terms of minutes, as they have 11 guys getting more than 8 minutes per game. They really only have two big minute guys in McGruder and guard Will Spradling who will play both the shooting guard and point guard position for the Wildcats. They also are balanced when it comes to scoring, with 5 guys averaging more than 8 points per game.

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The Wildcats are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, getting the 12th highest percentage of rebounds on the offensive glass (39.1%) primarily due to the elite efforts of Gipson who has the 28th highest individual percentage (14.8%). They use this skill to inflate their offense, as they are pretty average in terms of shooting from all over the court, and they do a pretty bad job of getting to the foul line.

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They are a solid defensive team, which likes to switch on screens and play up on the offensive player, especially on the perimeter. Rodriquez in particular is a very aggressive defender, who averages 1.5 steals per game. With McGruder and Southwell manning the small forward spot, they always have good size on the wings, which allow them to switch quite a bit and not lose much post defense down low.

\r\n\r\n

What happened last time?

\r\n\r\n

The bears were absolutely destroyed by the Wildcats, 80-60 on the road. Pierre Jackson had his worst game of the year (season low 7 points, 5 turnovers) and was dominated by his counterpart Angel Rodriquez (22 points, 10 assists). The Bears shot the ball well, but committed 19 turnovers and could never find a rhytyhm to keep up with the Wildcats. KSU kept extending the lead all game, especially in the last 10 minutes of either half, where they outscored the Bears 52-31.

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Keys to the Game

\r\n\r\n

-Have the best Point Guard – Pierre Jackson had his worst game as a Bear this year against Kansas State, and was abused by the hyper-active Angel Rodriquez on both sides of the court. When the Bears lose the point guard matchup as badly as they did here, they don't stand a chance. Jackson has to be the best point guard out there, and probably the best player on the court for the Bears to have a chance to win this game. Pierre has to be a difference maker on both sides of the court. He can't just play well on offense, he has to challenge jump shots, get around screens and disrupt passing lanes.

\r\n\r\n

-Contest shots – Too often, the Wildcats were shooting open jumpers usually obtained by having a shooter run through a series of screens and pin downs to get him open. Baylor struggled all night fighting through screens and challenging shots. In particular was the Bears coverage of Shane Southwell, one of the best spot up shooters in the Big 12. Southwell made 6 of 9 three point shots on his way to an 18 point game. He had open shots in the corner and the wing on pretty much all of those. Baylor has to find a way to break the tempo of the Wildcats active motion offense that always has guys in motion. Baylor has struggled all year with offenses like this, mainly due to lapses in help defense, or terrible defensive rotations.

\r\n\r\n

-Pound it in – Baylor's offense has always worked better inside-out. By that I mean, when the ball touches the paint, good things tend to happen. If it is by dribble penetration of Pierre Jackson or the seldom AJ Walton drive, or just a simple post up by one of the Baylor post players, good things happen when the Bears force the defense to collapse a little. While both of the Baylor freshman posts have struggled with double-teams at times, and force up too many shots in post-up situation, those sets and schemes are much more effective than the late pick and roll action that far too many of our offensive possessions devolve into.

\r\n\r\n

The Bear post players have to do a better job of sealing their man, but also helping each other out. In some of the best games we have had, we have seen the post players setting screens for each other, and also feeding each other for open looks. It is no coincidence that Isaiah Austin has started to come back from his slump in the middle of Big 12 play. During a 6 game stretch where he struggled on offense, he had just 1 assist total. Read that again. In 6 games, Austin had just 1 assist. With him playing better the past two games, he has 5 assists in those contests. When Austin passes the ball, he is a better player and the Bears are a better offense.

\r\n\r\n

Predictions

\r\n\r\n

KenPom – Bears win 68-66 (58% chance for win)

\r\n\r\n

Massey – Bears win 68-66 (54% chance for win)

\r\n\r\n

BearsIllustrated – Bears lose 71-67

\r\n\r\n

Honestly, call me shocked that both of these sites actually favor the Bears. It must be the raucous home court advantage they have had all year. Oh wait, the Bears have lost 4 home games already this year to College of Charleston, Northwestern, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Well then, it must be that we played them so tough on the road, right? Oh that's right; we lost by 20 in Manhattan on February 16th. Well maybe it is because KSU is struggling down the stretch. Nope, wrong again, they are 8-1 in their last nine games.

\r\n\r\n

Well, I don't get it. This is the same Baylor team that has struggled to beat the better teams in the Big 12 all year (just 1-7 against teams ahead of them in the Big 12 standings), and one that won for the third time in their last nine games. I think Kansas State is just simply a much better team than the Bears, and one that won't win in the dominant fashion we saw a few weeks ago, but will leave Waco with another road win under their belts.

\r\n","mobileBody":"

Off the losing streak and back in the winning column, the Bears hopes are on a big of an uptick. Add to that the fact that they finally won a game decided by fewer than five points (0-6 previously) and you might be able to sense some optimism in Waco. However, with just 3 games left, the schedule is heavy for home games, but also heavy in terms of the caliber of opponents left to face.

This Saturday, the Bears host the Kansas State Wildcats, 23-5 on the year and tied for first place in the Big 12 at 12-3. The Wildcats are ranked 13 in both the Coaches and AP polls right now, and have been ranked in the Top 25 for most of the year. However, the analytical sites really are not fans of the Wildcats, with KenPom ranking them 32 and ESPN's BPI metric at 33.

Personally, I am in the camp that they are closer to 13 than 33. The Wildcats worst loss is at Iowa State. Their other losses are to Michigan, Gonzaga, and Kansas twice. So they have lost to 3 teams that have been ranked in the top 5 for most of the year, and a solid NCAA tournament team with one of the best home court advantages in the nation.

KSU is led by their sophomore point guard, Angel Rodriquez, a key in their earlier win over the Bears. The starting point guard averages 11 points per game along with over 5 assists. Their leading scorer is Rodney McGruder a 6-4 wing player with great natural scoring ability. He is one of the best all-around players in the Big 12, and someone that the Bears should be well equipped to handle with A.J. Walton or Deuce Bello.

In the post, the Wildcats have some interesting options in all sorts of sizes and styles. Shane Southwell is just 6-6, but plays quite a bit of minutes at power forward. He is a tough matchup for the Bears, when they have two true post players out on the floor, as one has to challenge him on the perimeter (something that the Bears completely failed to do last game). Also in the post is 6-11 Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, a very tantalizing center with great potential. Too bad he is a senior now, so the potential has more been a tease to what he could be versus what he has actually turned into.

Roberts has struggled quite a bit this year, averaging less than 5 points and 5 rebounds per game, but he saved by far his best game for the Bears earlier in the year, with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes. This was his only double digit scoring game, but he usually does make an impact on defense, as a very good shot blocker. He had 5 in the earlier game this year (tied for a season high).

Also down low for the Wildcats is 6-7 Thomas Gipson, a bulldog of a power forward, at 6-7 and 270 pounds. They also play Adrian Diaz down low as well, as they go for more of a balanced approach with no player getting more than around 20 minutes per game down low.

In fact, this is a very balanced team in terms of minutes, as they have 11 guys getting more than 8 minutes per game. They really only have two big minute guys in McGruder and guard Will Spradling who will play both the shooting guard and point guard position for the Wildcats. They also are balanced when it comes to scoring, with 5 guys averaging more than 8 points per game.

The Wildcats are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, getting the 12 highest percentage of rebounds on the offensive glass (39.1%) primarily due to the elite efforts of Gipson who has the 28 highest individual percentage (14.8%). They use this skill to inflate their offense, as they are pretty average in terms of shooting from all over the court, and they do a pretty bad job of getting to the foul line.

They are a solid defensive team, which likes to switch on screens and play up on the offensive player, especially on the perimeter. Rodriquez in particular is a very aggressive defender, who averages 1.5 steals per game. With McGruder and Southwell manning the small forward spot, they always have good size on the wings, which allow them to switch quite a bit and not lose much post defense down low.

The bears were absolutely destroyed by the Wildcats, 80-60 on the road. Pierre Jackson had his worst game of the year (season low 7 points, 5 turnovers) and was dominated by his counterpart Angel Rodriquez (22 points, 10 assists). The Bears shot the ball well, but committed 19 turnovers and could never find a rhytyhm to keep up with the Wildcats. KSU kept extending the lead all game, especially in the last 10 minutes of either half, where they outscored the Bears 52-31.

- – Pierre Jackson had his worst game as a Bear this year against Kansas State, and was abused by the hyper-active Angel Rodriquez on both sides of the court. When the Bears lose the point guard matchup as badly as they did here, they don't stand a chance. Jackson has to be the best point guard out there, and probably the best player on the court for the Bears to have a chance to win this game. Pierre has to be a difference maker on both sides of the court. He can't just play well on offense, he has to challenge jump shots, get around screens and disrupt passing lanes.

- Too often, the Wildcats were shooting open jumpers usually obtained by having a shooter run through a series of screens and pin downs to get him open. Baylor struggled all night fighting through screens and challenging shots. In particular was the Bears coverage of Shane Southwell, one of the best spot up shooters in the Big 12. Southwell made 6 of 9 three point shots on his way to an 18 point game. He had open shots in the corner and the wing on pretty much all of those. Baylor has to find a way to break the tempo of the Wildcats active motion offense that always has guys in motion. Baylor has struggled all year with offenses like this, mainly due to lapses in help defense, or terrible defensive rotations.

- – Baylor's offense has always worked better inside-out. By that I mean, when the ball touches the paint, good things tend to happen. If it is by dribble penetration of Pierre Jackson or the seldom AJ Walton drive, or just a simple post up by one of the Baylor post players, good things happen when the Bears force the defense to collapse a little. While both of the Baylor freshman posts have struggled with double-teams at times, and force up too many shots in post-up situation, those sets and schemes are much more effective than the late pick and roll action that far too many of our offensive possessions devolve into.

The Bear post players have to do a better job of sealing their man, but also helping each other out. In some of the best games we have had, we have seen the post players setting screens for each other, and also feeding each other for open looks. It is no coincidence that Isaiah Austin has started to come back from his slump in the middle of Big 12 play. During a 6 game stretch where he struggled on offense, he had just 1 assist total. Read that again. In 6 games, Austin had just 1 assist. With him playing better the past two games, he has 5 assists in those contests. When Austin passes the ball, he is a better player and the Bears are a better offense.

Honestly, call me shocked that both of these sites actually favor the Bears. It must be the raucous home court advantage they have had all year. Oh wait, the Bears have lost 4 home games already this year to College of Charleston, Northwestern, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Well then, it must be that we played them so tough on the road, right? Oh that's right; we lost by 20 in Manhattan on February 16. Well maybe it is because KSU is struggling down the stretch. Nope, wrong again, they are 8-1 in their last nine games.

Well, I don't get it. This is the same Baylor team that has struggled to beat the better teams in the Big 12 all year (just 1-7 against teams ahead of them in the Big 12 standings), and one that won for the third time in their last nine games. I think Kansas State is just simply a much better team than the Bears, and one that won't win in the dominant fashion we saw a few weeks ago, but will leave Waco with another road win under their belts.

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