Kentucky vs. Baylor - An In-depth Look

Baylor faces off against another Top 10 team this Friday in Arlington when Kentucky comes to town for a double header between the ladies and the men. Let's see what the UK men bring to the table and how the Bears can get a huge victory.

The Baylor Bears are going on a little road trip Friday evening up to the land of the Cowboys, where they will face one of the most hyped and talented team in the country in 2nd ranked Kentucky. This game is a big one, if you couldn't tell from them playing it at AT&T Stadium, the home of the Dallas Cowboys and the Final Four this year. These are two of the Top 20 teams in the country, hopefully playing in front of a very large crowd (weather permitting), in front of 32 scouts and a whole nation watching on TV. It doesn't get much bigger than this in early December.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Friday, Dec. 6 | 9:00 p.m. CT
Location Arlington, Texas; AT&T Stadium (20,000)
TV ESPN
TV Talent Jon Sciambi (pxp), Fran Fraschilla (color)
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Game Notes Baylor Notes |Kentucky Notes
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Gary Franklin
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 - 5-11,180
#5 - 6-2, 190
#24 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Kentucky Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Andrew Harrison
Aaron Harrison
James Young
Julius Randle
Willie Cauley-Stein
#5 - 6-6, 215
#2 - 6-6, 218
#1 - 6-6, 215
#30 - 6-9, 250
#15 - 7-0, 244
Freshman
Freshman
Freshman
Freshman
Sophomore

There is no getting around this fact; Kentucky is one of the most talented teams in the country. They have tremendous size at every position and four of their starters were 5-star recruits. The "lowest rated" of the bunch is center Willie Cauley-Stein, who was only a 4-star recruit ranked 48th overall in his class according to Scout.com. They are loaded with tremendous talent, but it is young talent. They feature 7 freshmen and two sophomores in their rotation. They do not have a single player in their core rotation that is of legal drinking age.

Player Class Pos Ht Summary ?
Julius Randle FR F 6-9 18.1 Pts, 12.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
Aaron Harrison FR G 6-6 13.8 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
James Young FR G 6-6 13.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
Andrew Harrison FR G 6-6 10.4 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 3.4 Ast
Willie Cauley-Stein SO F 7-0 9.6 Pts, 8.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Alex Poythress SO F 6-8 5.4 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Dakari Johnson FR C 7-0 5.1 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Marcus Lee FR F 6-9 4.5 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Derek Willis FR F 6-9 2.8 Pts, 0.6 Reb, 0.0 Ast
EJ Floreal FR G 6-3 2.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Dominique Hawkins FR G 6-0 1.8 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Jon Hood SR G 6-7 1.8 Pts, 0.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Jarrod Polson SR G 6-2 0.0 Pts, 0.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CBB: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2013.

But, while talented, the Wildcats have not yet hit their groove, which is to be expected. They lost to a veteran Michigan State team in early November and have played pretty lackluster opposition outside of that, until a dominating win against Providence earlier this week. Importantly for the Wildcats, they did very well against a tough Friars zone defense, which prepared them a bit more for what Baylor might do on Friday night.

Keys to the Game

1. Convert inside – The Kentucky defense is extraordinary in the paint, holding opponents to a silly 37.2% on 2-point field goal attempts. They are led by 7-foot center Willie Cauley-Stein who averages 3.88 blockers per game. In fact, Kentucky has the 8th best block percentage in the country, with 18.2% of all shots being blocked. It is just extremely difficult to score inside against the Wildcats. But they have not faced an interior due like the Bears have in Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin. Michigan State really just has one post player that they can depend on inside in Adreian Payne.

While Isaiah Austin has had his struggles so far this year, Cory Jefferson has been quite steady for the Bears, leading them in points and shots per game. Austin, still getting back from the shoulder surgery he had this offseason has been effective as well for the Bears, though not nearly as consistent in his performance. In the second half against Syracuse game, he found his form though and finished with 11 points in those 20 minutes. Baylor's two star post players, along with Rico Gathers and Taurean Prince, will have to convert inside when given a chance and finish strong through contact.

2. Bombs away – While the interior game will be tough for both sides, the Bears have a distinct advantage in terms of scoring from the perimeter. Kentucky has been a pretty average 3-point shooting team this year, making just 31.8% of their shots (243rd in the country). They only have taken the 214th most in the country, so this is not a focus of their game. Baylor though has been a terrific shooting team all year, even if you lessen the shooting of the Maui Invitational with its buttery soft high school rims. They have the 9th best shooting percentage in the country from deep (44.4%).

Baylor is led by Brady Heslip and Gary Franklin who have combined to make 42 of 84 shots from behind the arc. For those that aren't good at math, that is 50% and incredible. Heslip has been sensational all year making 52% of his shots. For the Bears to win this game, they will need to make a high percentage of their open looks and get more than the 7.5 made 3-pointers per game they are averaging.

3. Don't get killed on the glass – Simply put, this is the best offensive rebounding team in the country and by a large margin. Baylor is ranked 11th in the country in offensive rebound percentage (41.1%) but is still 6.9% points behind where Kentucky is. In fact, the Wildcats are 2.8% ahead of any other team in the country. Baylor would rank just outside of the top 100 if you took 6.9% points off of their mark. THAT is how good UK has been on the offensive glass. They have three guys that are ranked in the top 70 in terms of offensive rebound percentage with Julius Randle ranking 23rd in the country. Sophomore 6th man Alex Poythress is 29th and center Willie Cauley-Stein is 66th. Heck, if backup center Dakari Johnson had enough minutes of action, he would rank even higher than all of them! This is a tremendous rebounding team that attacks the offense glass hard.

NCAA Basketball

4. Fix those nasty turnovers – Baylor has been about as bad in the turnover statistic as you can get. If you read the "Catching Up with the Bears" article from earlier this week, you will know that Baylor is currently at a -4.3 margin in terms of turnovers per game, which ranks 328th out of 338 teams. The Bears are turning the ball over a too much and not getting any turnovers. They rank in the 300s in both of those categories, and that leads to a lot of easy points for the opposition and none for the bears. Turnovers are what cost Baylor against Syracuse, as they were -13 on the game. Kentucky has not done a great job this year in forcing turnovers, but they are deadly when they do. They push the ball extremely well and use their incredible athleticism to get easy buckets.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Kentucky wins 73-70 (39% chance for Baylor victory)

Massey.com – Kentucky wins 72-71 (48% chance for Baylor victory)

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Kentucky wins 68-64

Games in big football stadiums rarely feature great shooting. The larger dimensions and weird angles make it tougher on shooters. That will play much worse against the Bears than it will against the Wildcats. Kentucky sets the tone early in the game, getting Cory Jefferson in quick foul trouble and then abusing Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers with star freshman Julius Randle. The hot hands of Gary Franklin and Royce O'Neale will cool off, leaving just Brady Heslip to connect from deep. Baylor will be in the game but some late misses at the free throw line by Kentucky will make the game a bit closer.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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4. Fix those nasty turnovers – Baylor has been about as bad in the turnover statistic as you can get. If you read the \"Catching Up with the Bears\" article from earlier this week, you will know that Baylor is currently at a -4.3 margin in terms of turnovers per game, which ranks 328th out of 338 teams. The Bears are turning the ball over a too much and not getting any turnovers. They rank in the 300s in both of those categories, and that leads to a lot of easy points for the opposition and none for the bears. Turnovers are what cost Baylor against Syracuse, as they were -13 on the game. Kentucky has not done a great job this year in forcing turnovers, but they are deadly when they do. They push the ball extremely well and use their incredible athleticism to get easy buckets.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Kentucky wins 73-70 (39% chance for Baylor victory)

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Massey.com – Kentucky wins 72-71 (48% chance for Baylor victory)

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Kentucky wins 68-64

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Games in big football stadiums rarely feature great shooting. The larger dimensions and weird angles make it tougher on shooters. That will play much worse against the Bears than it will against the Wildcats. Kentucky sets the tone early in the game, getting Cory Jefferson in quick foul trouble and then abusing Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers with star freshman Julius Randle. The hot hands of Gary Franklin and Royce O'Neale will cool off, leaving just Brady Heslip to connect from deep. Baylor will be in the game but some late misses at the free throw line by Kentucky will make the game a bit closer.

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The Baylor Bears are going on a little road trip Friday evening up to the land of the Cowboys, where they will face one of the most hyped and talented team in the country in 2 ranked Kentucky. This game is a big one, if you couldn't tell from them playing it at AT&T Stadium, the home of the Dallas Cowboys and the Final Four this year. These are two of the Top 20 teams in the country, hopefully playing in front of a very large crowd (weather permitting), in front of 32 scouts and a whole nation watching on TV. It doesn't get much bigger than this in early December.

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