A Look at Iowa State

In the first Big 12 game of the year, the Bears get the treat of going on the road to a place they have never won to play a team that hasn't lost this year. Thus is life in the Big 12.

The Baylor Bears travel to Ames, IA to take on the undefeated and fellow Top 10 ranked Iowa State Cyclones this Tuesday evening. The Bears are looking for their first win under Scott Drew at the Hilton Coliseum, where he is 0-6. In fact, Iowa State and Kansas are the only two conference opponents that Scott Drew has not won at yet.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Tuesday, Jan. 7th | 6:00 p.m. CT
Location Ames, IA; Hilton Coliseum
TV ESPN 2
TV Talent Dave Flemming (pxp), Miles Simon (color))
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Baylor Notes |Iowa State Notes
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Gary Franklin
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 - 5-11,180
#5 - 6-2, 190
#24 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Iowa State Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
DeAndre Kane
Matt Thomas
Melvin Ejim
Dustin Hogue
Georges Niang
#50 - 6-4, 200
#21 - 6-3, 200
#3 - 6-6, 220
#22 - 6-6, 215
#31 - 6-7, 240
Senior
Freshman
Senior
Junior
Sophomore

These are two very different lineups, especially height wise. The Cyclones feature a 5-man lineup that is all between 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-7, while Baylor has a smaller backcourt that is just 5-foot-11 and 6-foot-2, but has much more size in the front court with two players over 6-foot-9. With the Cyclones even size, they are an ideal switching defensive team with players that can guard multiple positions.

The Cyclones are a very balanced, team with four players averaging double figure points and 3 players with over 7 rebounds per game. Their leading scorer is Melvin Ejim, a 6-foot-6 forward that is one of the best all-around players in the Big 12. He averages 17.7 points per game and also is third on the team in 5.3 rebounds per game. He is an all-around player with a good mid-range game and some nifty moves around the basket.

NCAA Basketball

The guy that makes them tick though is senior point guard DeAndre Kane, a transfer from Marshall. A three-year starter for the Herd, Kane averaged 15 points per game and at least 4.4 rebounds per game every year for Marshall. For Fred Hoiberg and the Cyclones, he has more than kept those numbers up, getting 15 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6. 1 assists. With his tremendous size at 6-foot-4 and all-around game, he has made a huge impact in his one year for Iowa State.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Iowa State
AP Poll 7 9
Coaches Poll 9 7
KenPom 26 14
Massey 13 5
Sagarin 23 4
RealTime RPI 17 6
RPI Forecast 20 4
ESPN RPI 22 2
ESPN BPI 36 1

The Bears are the higher team according to the AP pollsters and just behind ISU in the Coaches Poll, but the Cyclones are a large favorite according to each of the analytical sites. Iowa State's average ranking on those is 5.14 compared to the Bears 22.43. The Bears are a fringe Top 25 team while the Cyclones are a legit Top 5 team playing at home.

The Stats

College Basketball Stats

This is the chart that should give Baylor fans the most hope. Baylor is a slightly better shooting team, though both are excellent. The Bears also are significantly better at offensive rebounds and free throw shooting, while Iowa State has a give advantage in turnover %, though that is mitigated by Iowa State not forcing many turnovers on the year. So both teams have a slight advantage in 1 category while the Bears have a large advantage in the other two.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Iowa State Rank
KenPom Effeciency 114.6 26 95.3 30
Points Per Possession 1.2 8 0.92 23
Effective FG % 57% 12 44.00% 34
Turnover % 19.90% 254 16.10% 300
Rebound % 43.70% 2 73.60% 22
3P % 42.50% 5 29% 27
2P % 53.80% 34 44.30% 69

When Iowa State has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Iowa State Rank
KenPom Effeciency 97.5 61 117.1 10
Points Per Possession 0.98 84 1.19 13
Effective FG % 44.30% 38 56.1 19
Turnover % 16.00% 307 13.20% 2
Rebound % 68% 215 27.70% 295
3P % 33.50% 163 36% 98
2P % 41.50% 18 57.40% 4

These are two teams that are mirror images in a lot of ways. The Bears shoot the 3-point shot significantly better, but the Cyclones take care of the ball as well as any team in the country. Outside of that, their offense is the strength of their game, at least in terms of percentages. Neither team turns the opposition over very well, but these are two solid defenses in terms of challenging shots.

They are also two of the most efficient offenses in the nation, with both in the Top 13 in points per possession and the Top 20 in terms of effective shooting %. Really, the Bears offense is as good as any in the country, except for those pesky turnovers. They do everything else at a good to elite level. Iowa State can make the same claim, except their weakness is offensive rebounding. They are a top 100 three-point shooting team, but everything else is Top 20. These are two outstanding offenses with just 1 major weakness.

Keys to the Game

1. Win the Newcomer of the Year battle – These two teams feature the two run away players for newcomer of the year in the Big 12. Both DeAndre Kane and Kenny Chery will face off against each other as the main distributor and ball handler for these two teams. Kane has the size advantage but Chery has been so quick and nifty for the Bears, that it should be a good matchup. It will be interesting to see if Kane can take away Chery's ability to dice up the defense from the mid-range part of the court, where the junior has unleashed a full arsenal of floaters, jumpers, and twisting passes in the 10-15 foot range that has been unparalleled in the college game.

Chery will have to battle hard on the glass to keep Kane from getting defensive rebounds and pushing the ball up the court quicky, something that he is excellent at. These are two completely different point guards making a huge impact for their teams in their first season on campus.

2. Make the Turnovers Close - The Cyclones simply do not turn the ball over. Their 9.6 turnovers per game is impressive, but so much more when you consider the extremely fast pace that they play at. Iowa State on average has 72.9 possessions per game, which is the 39th most in the nation. Baylor is on the complete other end of the spectrum in both areas, averaging 12.8 turnovers in just 65.6 possessions. The turnover rates make this even more of a discrepancy where Baylor turns the ball over on 19.9% of their offensive possessions compared to just 13.2% for Iowa State. That is the second best rate in the nation for Iowa State, and a below average one for the Bears.

Luckily, neither team really forces that many turnovers. In fact, both teams are within a single tenth of a point of each other, with Baylor at 16% and Iowa State at 16.1%. Those are both in the bottom 50 of the nation, so these defenses don't take many chances, and trust their ability to force tough shots. Baylor cannot get Iowa State out in transition and give them too many extra chances. If the Bears are -5 or worse on turnovers, this game could get away from them.

3. Take Advantage of Size - While the Cyclones dominate in the turnover game, the Bears dominate on the glass, on both sides of the ball. Baylor has the second best offensive rebound percentage in the country, getting an offensive rebound a stunning 43.7% of the time. They are led by Rico Gathers who gets a ridiculous 23.4 of all rebounds when he is in the game and the Bears are shooting. Think about that. 23.4% of the time that the Bears miss a shot with Gathers on the floor, he is getting them another chance. That is the best rate in the nation and leading second place DaJuan Coleman by 2.42%. But Rico is not the only one.

Both Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin are solid on the offensive glass, and both post numbers right around a more mortal 10%. Baylor has to take advantage of their size inside on the glass, and make sure to keep the Cyclones to one shot, and get more shots for their own offense. A +8 rebounding margin would be a very solid effort for the Bears and go a long way to getting a big-time road win.

4. Challenge Shots – The Cyclones want to shoot, quickly and often and usually they don't really care who is pulling the trigger. They have 7 players that have made at least 9 three-pointers this year, though only one that is shooting over 37% in Naz Long. The sophomore guard is their top 3-point shooter making 27 on the year and converting 46.6% of his attempts. While they don't take a huge amount of 3-pointers as a whole, that shot opens up their offense and allows them to work the mid-range game very effectively.

Dustin Hogue has been a tremendously efficient shooter this year, on a team full of them. He has a 62.5% effective shooting percentage, which would be second on the Bears behind super freak efficiency master Royce O'Neale who has a 72.5% rating and is fourth nationally. Simply put, this team makes shots at an even better rate than the Bears.

5. Don't Let Niang Dominate – In the two games last year, Niang as a freshman averaged 16 points per game, on 13-23 shooting and added 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Simply put, the Bears didn't have an answer for the creative post player in both games last year. He was a big reason why the Cyclones went 2-0 against Baylor. In the second game, he was 7-9 from the field, and only foul trouble kept him from truly taking over and putting up a monster game. He is their main post weapon surrounded by a cast of excellent 3-point shooters.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Iowa State wins 75-68 (76% chance for win)

Massey.com – Iowa State wins 79-72 (77% chance for win)

RealTime RPI – Iowa State wins 88-82

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Iowa State wins 76-72

This is going to be a battle against two very good offensive teams that want to play at completely different tempos. If the Bears can rebound, keep the Cyclones off of the offensive glass, and make sure to not give them many second chance or fast break points, they can win this game. They have the ability, but I just don't see the Cyclones losing at home this year. They are that good. ISU has a balanced attack that will be difficult for the Bears to slow down, and one that poses problems for their smaller guards.

While the Baylor defense has gotten better at dealing with wings with good size, I do think the backcourt will struggle when facing off against a team with two bigger guards, and that is what the Cyclones have. I think the Bears will play very well, except for a few minute stretch where the Cyclones will go on a big run to get the lead and take control of the game.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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The guy that makes them tick though is senior point guard DeAndre Kane, a transfer from Marshall. A three-year starter for the Herd, Kane averaged 15 points per game and at least 4.4 rebounds per game every year for Marshall. For Fred Hoiberg and the Cyclones, he has more than kept those numbers up, getting 15 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6. 1 assists. With his tremendous size at 6-foot-4 and all-around game, he has made a huge impact in his one year for Iowa State.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorIowa State
AP Poll79
Coaches Poll 97
KenPom2614
Massey135
Sagarin234
RealTime RPI176
RPI Forecast204
ESPN RPI222
ESPN BPI361
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The Bears are the higher team according to the AP pollsters and just behind ISU in the Coaches Poll, but the Cyclones are a large favorite according to each of the analytical sites. Iowa State's average ranking on those is 5.14 compared to the Bears 22.43. The Bears are a fringe Top 25 team while the Cyclones are a legit Top 5 team playing at home.

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The Stats

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\r\n \r\n College Basketball Stats\r\n
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This is the chart that should give Baylor fans the most hope. Baylor is a slightly better shooting team, though both are excellent. The Bears also are significantly better at offensive rebounds and free throw shooting, while Iowa State has a give advantage in turnover %, though that is mitigated by Iowa State not forcing many turnovers on the year. So both teams have a slight advantage in 1 category while the Bears have a large advantage in the other two.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankIowa StateRank
KenPom Effeciency114.62695.330
Points Per Possession1.280.9223
Effective FG %57%1244.00%34
Turnover %19.90%25416.10%300
Rebound %43.70%273.60%22
3P %42.50%529%27
2P %53.80%3444.30%69
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When Iowa State has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankIowa StateRank
KenPom Effeciency97.561117.110
Points Per Possession0.98841.1913
Effective FG %44.30%3856.119
Turnover %16.00%30713.20%2
Rebound %68%21527.70%295
3P %33.50%16336%98
2P %41.50%1857.40%4
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These are two teams that are mirror images in a lot of ways. The Bears shoot the 3-point shot significantly better, but the Cyclones take care of the ball as well as any team in the country. Outside of that, their offense is the strength of their game, at least in terms of percentages. Neither team turns the opposition over very well, but these are two solid defenses in terms of challenging shots.

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They are also two of the most efficient offenses in the nation, with both in the Top 13 in points per possession and the Top 20 in terms of effective shooting %. Really, the Bears offense is as good as any in the country, except for those pesky turnovers. They do everything else at a good to elite level. Iowa State can make the same claim, except their weakness is offensive rebounding. They are a top 100 three-point shooting team, but everything else is Top 20. These are two outstanding offenses with just 1 major weakness.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Win the Newcomer of the Year battle – These two teams feature the two run away players for newcomer of the year in the Big 12. Both DeAndre Kane and Kenny Chery will face off against each other as the main distributor and ball handler for these two teams. Kane has the size advantage but Chery has been so quick and nifty for the Bears, that it should be a good matchup. It will be interesting to see if Kane can take away Chery's ability to dice up the defense from the mid-range part of the court, where the junior has unleashed a full arsenal of floaters, jumpers, and twisting passes in the 10-15 foot range that has been unparalleled in the college game.

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Chery will have to battle hard on the glass to keep Kane from getting defensive rebounds and pushing the ball up the court quicky, something that he is excellent at. These are two completely different point guards making a huge impact for their teams in their first season on campus.

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2. Make the Turnovers Close - The Cyclones simply do not turn the ball over. Their 9.6 turnovers per game is impressive, but so much more when you consider the extremely fast pace that they play at. Iowa State on average has 72.9 possessions per game, which is the 39th most in the nation. Baylor is on the complete other end of the spectrum in both areas, averaging 12.8 turnovers in just 65.6 possessions. The turnover rates make this even more of a discrepancy where Baylor turns the ball over on 19.9% of their offensive possessions compared to just 13.2% for Iowa State. That is the second best rate in the nation for Iowa State, and a below average one for the Bears.

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Luckily, neither team really forces that many turnovers. In fact, both teams are within a single tenth of a point of each other, with Baylor at 16% and Iowa State at 16.1%. Those are both in the bottom 50 of the nation, so these defenses don't take many chances, and trust their ability to force tough shots. Baylor cannot get Iowa State out in transition and give them too many extra chances. If the Bears are -5 or worse on turnovers, this game could get away from them.

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3. Take Advantage of Size - While the Cyclones dominate in the turnover game, the Bears dominate on the glass, on both sides of the ball. Baylor has the second best offensive rebound percentage in the country, getting an offensive rebound a stunning 43.7% of the time. They are led by Rico Gathers who gets a ridiculous 23.4 of all rebounds when he is in the game and the Bears are shooting. Think about that. 23.4% of the time that the Bears miss a shot with Gathers on the floor, he is getting them another chance. That is the best rate in the nation and leading second place DaJuan Coleman by 2.42%. But Rico is not the only one.

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Both Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin are solid on the offensive glass, and both post numbers right around a more mortal 10%. Baylor has to take advantage of their size inside on the glass, and make sure to keep the Cyclones to one shot, and get more shots for their own offense. A +8 rebounding margin would be a very solid effort for the Bears and go a long way to getting a big-time road win.

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4. Challenge Shots – The Cyclones want to shoot, quickly and often and usually they don't really care who is pulling the trigger. They have 7 players that have made at least 9 three-pointers this year, though only one that is shooting over 37% in Naz Long. The sophomore guard is their top 3-point shooter making 27 on the year and converting 46.6% of his attempts. While they don't take a huge amount of 3-pointers as a whole, that shot opens up their offense and allows them to work the mid-range game very effectively.

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Dustin Hogue has been a tremendously efficient shooter this year, on a team full of them. He has a 62.5% effective shooting percentage, which would be second on the Bears behind super freak efficiency master Royce O'Neale who has a 72.5% rating and is fourth nationally. Simply put, this team makes shots at an even better rate than the Bears.

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5. Don't Let Niang Dominate – In the two games last year, Niang as a freshman averaged 16 points per game, on 13-23 shooting and added 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Simply put, the Bears didn't have an answer for the creative post player in both games last year. He was a big reason why the Cyclones went 2-0 against Baylor. In the second game, he was 7-9 from the field, and only foul trouble kept him from truly taking over and putting up a monster game. He is their main post weapon surrounded by a cast of excellent 3-point shooters.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Iowa State wins 75-68 (76% chance for win)

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Massey.com – Iowa State wins 79-72 (77% chance for win)

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RealTime RPI – Iowa State wins 88-82

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Iowa State wins 76-72

\r\nThis is going to be a battle against two very good offensive teams that want to play at completely different tempos. If the Bears can rebound, keep the Cyclones off of the offensive glass, and make sure to not give them many second chance or fast break points, they can win this game. They have the ability, but I just don't see the Cyclones losing at home this year. They are that good. ISU has a balanced attack that will be difficult for the Bears to slow down, and one that poses problems for their smaller guards. \r\n\r\n

While the Baylor defense has gotten better at dealing with wings with good size, I do think the backcourt will struggle when facing off against a team with two bigger guards, and that is what the Cyclones have. I think the Bears will play very well, except for a few minute stretch where the Cyclones will go on a big run to get the lead and take control of the game.

\r\n","mobileBody":"

The Baylor Bears travel to Ames, IA to take on the undefeated and fellow Top 10 ranked Iowa State Cyclones this Tuesday evening. The Bears are looking for their first win under Scott Drew at the Hilton Coliseum, where he is 0-6. In fact, Iowa State and Kansas are the only two conference opponents that Scott Drew has not won at yet.

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