A Look at Texas

The Bears come back home in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to face a surprising Texas squad who has won 4 straight games.

These are two squads heading in very different directions than what most thought they would be. The Bears, a Top 10 team just a few weeks ago, are stumbling and have lost three of their last four games and are just 1-4 in Big 12 play. The Longhorns, in the midst of a rebuilding effort to get back to being a good team, are on a 4-game winning streak and more than likely will move up in the rankings and be Top 25 team with a win over Baylor.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Jan. 25, 2014| 12:30 p.m. CT
Location Waco, TX
TV Big 12 Network
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Gary Franklin
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 - 5-11,180
#5 - 6-2, 190
#24 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Texas Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Javan Felix
Isaiah Taylor
Demarcus Holland
Jonathan Holmes
Cameron Ridley
#3 - 5-11, 195
#1 - 6-1, 170
#2 - 6-2, 185
#10 - 6-8, 240
#55 – 6-9, 285
Sophomore
Freshman
Sophomore
Junior
Sophomore

The Bears will have quite a bit of a height advantage all over the court, especially at the small forward position, as Texas has gone to a 3-guard lineup for the most part. In fact, the Longhorns look an awful lot like the Bears did last year, with two point guards and another guard. Javan Felix is the primary distributor for the Longhorns, and is their primary scorer. He is second on the team in points per game with 12.47, just behind forward Jonathan Holmes at 12.83. Felix is taking 31.4% of the Longhorns shots when he is on the court, the 61st highest rate in the country. That is a tremendous increase from last year, as he took a below average 19.8% of the shots.

Alongside Felix is guard Isaiah Taylor, a 3-star unranked guard out of Houston, who has been a very pleasant surprise for UT. He is their leading assist man at over 3.6 per game, and is very quick with the ball. He is a good penetrator with some nice moves around the rim. Their 3rd guard is Demarcus Holland, another sophomore for the Longhorns, who plays bigger than his 6-foot-2 frame, and is a pretty good rebounder for a player his size. He is a streaky shooter, as all of the UT guards are, but doesn't take a lot of shots. He is their best on the ball defender and a guy that can make things happen on that end of the court.

The Longhorns most efficient offensive players are found in the post, though one does his work down low and the other does his on the perimeter. The Longhorns best shooter is their starting power forward, Jonathan Holmes. The 6-foot-8 junior is the eldest of the Texas regulars, and is a prototypical stretch-4. He is their best 3-point shooter and can make plays from all around the arc. He hit the game winner against Kansas State earlier this week, and will be one to watch on the baseline and corner 3-pointers that the Bears zone tends to leave open.

College Basketball

The man doing the dirty work though for the Texas offense is Cameron Ridley, a rather large man at 285 pounds, and one that plays with that size to his advantage. He has developed quite a bit more in the paint offensively this year, as he has scored in double figures the past three games. Right now, the UT offense runs it best when it can isolate Ridley against his defender and let him work down low. The sophomore center has made 20 of his last 28 shots in the past three games, and averaged over 15 points a game in that stretch. He is their one efficient offensive threat, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 58.4 (128th in the nation) while no other player with a high enough volume of shot is over 54%.

The Longhorns are not an explosive team offensively, with no players averaging more than 13 points per game, but they are another balanced attack that has multiple pieces that can score in bunches. Their bench is used 33.7% of the time (102nd highest in the nation) and the major minutes go to post Prince Ibeh, a good rebounder and excellent rim protector with a developing offensive game, and shooting big man Connor Lammert. They will also use guards Demarcus Croaker, their best shooter from the guard position, and former starting point guard Kendal Yancy.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Texas
AP Poll 24 34
Coaches Poll 23 35
KenPom 41 45
Massey 45 32
Sagarin 43 45
RealTime RPI 41 35
RPI Forecast 43 46
ESPN RPI 40 33
ESPN BPI 47 36

These are two evenly matched teams, with their rankings being within a few spots in the majority of these polls. The Bears are still ranked in the Top 25, but that was before their 3rd straight loss Monday night to Kansas. Texas beat Kansas State Tuesday night, so more than likely, if the poll was taken today, the Longhorns would be ranked higher in the AP and Coaches Poll. The Bears streak has put them squarely in the 40s in all of the analytical rankings, while Texas has a larger variance, landing as high as 21nd but as low as 45th.

The Stats

NCAA Basketball

The Baylor offense again carries the torch for the Bears 4-factors, but more recent stats would favor Texas. The Bears shooting touch from inside the 3-point arc has disappeared recently, sending their effective field goal ranking plummeting from 57% before the Iowa State game to 54% right now. That is a big dip, mainly due to the drop in 2-point field goal % (53.8% to 51.1%). That is an incredible drop, and has moved the Bears all the way down into the 100s in rank. Baylor's 3-point shooting has been hot and cold as well, with them shooting 4-20 against Texas Tech, 6-20 against Oklahoma, but a sizzling 9-20 against Kansas.

Baylor has also not been as strong on the defensive glass as well, giving up 29 offensive rebounds over the past three games. Texas is a good offensive rebounding team, though not nearly at the level that the Bears are. All four of the Texas post players average at least a 8.4% offensive rebounding rate, with three of them over 11.5%. They do a collective job on the glass, while the Bears are mainly carried by the epic offensive rebounding effort of Rico Gathers, who gets 22% of the offensive rebounds when he is on the court. Three other Bears are at 9.1% to 10% which is still solid.

Both teams are also pretty mediocre too bad at shooting from the foul line, with Texas and Baylor ranked 308th and 307th in the nation. Texas does get to the line a little more often, especially with Isaiah Taylor's penetration ability.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Texas Rank
KenPom Effeciency 114.7 29 96.4 43
Points Per Possession 1.17 13 0.98 62
Effective FG % 54.0% 41 46.6% 88
Turnover % 19.2% 233 18.1% 211
Rebound % 43.8% 3 71.8% 53
3P % 40.1% 20 34.0% 173
2P % 51.1% 104 43.9% 51

Texas has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Texas Rank
KenPom Effeciency 100.5 103 109.7 73
Points Per Possession 1.02 135 1.07 131
Effective FG % 47.3% 108 48.8% 229
Turnover % 16.3% 306 17.8% 133
Rebound % 68.5% 197 37.1% 38
3P % 34.6% 204 33.3% 217
2P % 45.0% 83 48.4% 204

Both of these offenses should have an advantage over the defense, as these are two better than average offenses. Texas is better in the paint and in getting to the free throw line, but the Bears are quite superior at shooting the 3-point shot. The Longhorns are a better rebounding team overall, as they are strong on both sides of the court, while the Bears are dominant on the offensive glass, but just above average on the defensive side.

While the Longhorns are as good a shooting team as the Bears, they make up for that by being a better defense at stopping interior shots. Their guards do a good job of staying in front of their man, but their lack of height can hurt them in post-up chances, as well as challenging shooters. Overall, this is a pretty even matchup against two teams going in different directions.

Keys to the Game

1. Convert inside – The Bears have done a pretty bad job the past few games of making their interior shots, highlighted vividly by the Kansas game where they made just 10-32 of their shots from inside the 3-point arc. Cory Jefferson, Rico Gathers and Isaiah Austin were a combined 7-19 from inside the arc, and that is just not nearly good enough. The Bears didn't really try and post up the Jayhawks that much, choosing to attack them from the perimeter or with the dribble drive, but Texas should not pose as nearly as big of a threat down low. They are a good shot blocking team, but they are not nearly as good as Kansas.

Ridley is a good low post defender, but he has struggled with quicker post players in the past. He does have the 29th best block % in the nation (10.6%) but he has been known to get into foul trouble as well. Jonathan Holmes is also a solid shot blocker as well, but he seems to get most of his on penetration from guards. He is an average post defender, but struggles more with strength than speed. The matchups should be evident, with Gathers going against Holmes whenever possible, and Austin or Jefferson taking on Ridley. The Bears might need to do some post-picks and hope that the Horns switch to guarantee these matchups, but when Baylor does find itself in a position it can succeed in, they simply have to make those shots much more often.

2. Stop Felix – Last year, Felix was a monster against the Bears, showing off a similar game style that he has had all year. He had a season high 26 points on 23 shot attempts as he simply could not be kept from the mid-range jumpers that he prefers. That was his highest offensive possession percentage during his freshman campaign, with him taking 31% of the Longhorns shots. As stated earlier, that is where he is at now. The Bears will have to keep Felix out of his comfort spots, and make him move the ball to the other Texas players that are not nearly as good offensively.

3. Limit the hot shooter – Texas is a collection of good athletes that are pretty streaky from outside. Jonathan Holmes is their best shooter, but even he is not immune to cold bouts. He was 1-4 shooting with a few terrible misses before his game winning shot against Kansas State. He also had 23 points in their upset win over Iowa State, making 7-8 shots from inside the arc. Backup guard Demarcus Croaker had 15 points in a losing effort against Oklahoma, while Demarcus Holland blew up for 23 against UTA in a narrow victory.

This is a team that does a good job of finding the hot man, and feeding him the ball. Isaiah Taylor and Cameron Ridley have been two of the more consistent scorers for the Longhorns the last month or so, to go along with primary scorer Javan Felix. But this is a team that needs another guy to step up and make shots.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Baylor wins 74-70 (66% chance for win)

Massey.com – Baylor wins 74-71 (61% chance for win)

RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 80-72

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor wins 78-74

The Bears offense has been missing the past few games, only beak 72 points once in Big 12 play so far. The Bears shooting has just been up and down all over the court. One game they can't hit a 3-pointer, the next they hit almost 50%. One game they hit 21 of 21 of their free throws, the next two games they can't break 50%. There has been no consistency to what the Bears do on offense.

This is the game that Baylor starts to rediscover its identity. With Kenny Chery operating the pick and roll with Cory Jefferson, the Bears get Cameron Ridley in early foul trouble as Baylor gets him moving. They also start getting the ball inside with the dribble and dish to an open post player. The Bears get out to a big lead in the first half, but Texas makes a run as the Bears hang on for a much needed home victory over Texas.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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The man doing the dirty work though for the Texas offense is Cameron Ridley, a rather large man at 285 pounds, and one that plays with that size to his advantage. He has developed quite a bit more in the paint offensively this year, as he has scored in double figures the past three games. Right now, the UT offense runs it best when it can isolate Ridley against his defender and let him work down low. The sophomore center has made 20 of his last 28 shots in the past three games, and averaged over 15 points a game in that stretch. He is their one efficient offensive threat, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 58.4 (128th in the nation) while no other player with a high enough volume of shot is over 54%.

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The Longhorns are not an explosive team offensively, with no players averaging more than 13 points per game, but they are another balanced attack that has multiple pieces that can score in bunches. Their bench is used 33.7% of the time (102nd highest in the nation) and the major minutes go to post Prince Ibeh, a good rebounder and excellent rim protector with a developing offensive game, and shooting big man Connor Lammert. They will also use guards Demarcus Croaker, their best shooter from the guard position, and former starting point guard Kendal Yancy.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorTexas
AP Poll2434
Coaches Poll 2335
KenPom 4145
Massey4532
Sagarin 4345
RealTime RPI4135
RPI Forecast 4346
ESPN RPI4033
ESPN BPI47\t36
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These are two evenly matched teams, with their rankings being within a few spots in the majority of these polls. The Bears are still ranked in the Top 25, but that was before their 3rd straight loss Monday night to Kansas. Texas beat Kansas State Tuesday night, so more than likely, if the poll was taken today, the Longhorns would be ranked higher in the AP and Coaches Poll. The Bears streak has put them squarely in the 40s in all of the analytical rankings, while Texas has a larger variance, landing as high as 21nd but as low as 45th.

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The Stats

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The Baylor offense again carries the torch for the Bears 4-factors, but more recent stats would favor Texas. The Bears shooting touch from inside the 3-point arc has disappeared recently, sending their effective field goal ranking plummeting from 57% before the Iowa State game to 54% right now. That is a big dip, mainly due to the drop in 2-point field goal % (53.8% to 51.1%). That is an incredible drop, and has moved the Bears all the way down into the 100s in rank. Baylor's 3-point shooting has been hot and cold as well, with them shooting 4-20 against Texas Tech, 6-20 against Oklahoma, but a sizzling 9-20 against Kansas.

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Baylor has also not been as strong on the defensive glass as well, giving up 29 offensive rebounds over the past three games. Texas is a good offensive rebounding team, though not nearly at the level that the Bears are. All four of the Texas post players average at least a 8.4% offensive rebounding rate, with three of them over 11.5%. They do a collective job on the glass, while the Bears are mainly carried by the epic offensive rebounding effort of Rico Gathers, who gets 22% of the offensive rebounds when he is on the court. Three other Bears are at 9.1% to 10% which is still solid.

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Both teams are also pretty mediocre too bad at shooting from the foul line, with Texas and Baylor ranked 308th and 307th in the nation. Texas does get to the line a little more often, especially with Isaiah Taylor's penetration ability.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankTexasRank
KenPom Effeciency114.72996.443
Points Per Possession1.17130.9862
Effective FG %54.0%4146.6%88
Turnover %19.2%23318.1%211
Rebound %43.8%371.8%53
3P %40.1%2034.0%173
2P %51.1%10443.9%51
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Texas has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankTexasRank
KenPom Effeciency100.5103109.773
Points Per Possession1.021351.07131
Effective FG %47.3%10848.8%229
Turnover %16.3%30617.8%133
Rebound %68.5%19737.1%38
3P %34.6%20433.3%217
2P %45.0%8348.4%204
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Both of these offenses should have an advantage over the defense, as these are two better than average offenses. Texas is better in the paint and in getting to the free throw line, but the Bears are quite superior at shooting the 3-point shot. The Longhorns are a better rebounding team overall, as they are strong on both sides of the court, while the Bears are dominant on the offensive glass, but just above average on the defensive side.

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While the Longhorns are as good a shooting team as the Bears, they make up for that by being a better defense at stopping interior shots. Their guards do a good job of staying in front of their man, but their lack of height can hurt them in post-up chances, as well as challenging shooters. Overall, this is a pretty even matchup against two teams going in different directions.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Convert inside – The Bears have done a pretty bad job the past few games of making their interior shots, highlighted vividly by the Kansas game where they made just 10-32 of their shots from inside the 3-point arc. Cory Jefferson, Rico Gathers and Isaiah Austin were a combined 7-19 from inside the arc, and that is just not nearly good enough. The Bears didn't really try and post up the Jayhawks that much, choosing to attack them from the perimeter or with the dribble drive, but Texas should not pose as nearly as big of a threat down low. They are a good shot blocking team, but they are not nearly as good as Kansas.

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Ridley is a good low post defender, but he has struggled with quicker post players in the past. He does have the 29th best block % in the nation (10.6%) but he has been known to get into foul trouble as well. Jonathan Holmes is also a solid shot blocker as well, but he seems to get most of his on penetration from guards. He is an average post defender, but struggles more with strength than speed. The matchups should be evident, with Gathers going against Holmes whenever possible, and Austin or Jefferson taking on Ridley. The Bears might need to do some post-picks and hope that the Horns switch to guarantee these matchups, but when Baylor does find itself in a position it can succeed in, they simply have to make those shots much more often.

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2. Stop Felix – Last year, Felix was a monster against the Bears, showing off a similar game style that he has had all year. He had a season high 26 points on 23 shot attempts as he simply could not be kept from the mid-range jumpers that he prefers. That was his highest offensive possession percentage during his freshman campaign, with him taking 31% of the Longhorns shots. As stated earlier, that is where he is at now. The Bears will have to keep Felix out of his comfort spots, and make him move the ball to the other Texas players that are not nearly as good offensively.

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3. Limit the hot shooter – Texas is a collection of good athletes that are pretty streaky from outside. Jonathan Holmes is their best shooter, but even he is not immune to cold bouts. He was 1-4 shooting with a few terrible misses before his game winning shot against Kansas State. He also had 23 points in their upset win over Iowa State, making 7-8 shots from inside the arc. Backup guard Demarcus Croaker had 15 points in a losing effort against Oklahoma, while Demarcus Holland blew up for 23 against UTA in a narrow victory.

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This is a team that does a good job of finding the hot man, and feeding him the ball. Isaiah Taylor and Cameron Ridley have been two of the more consistent scorers for the Longhorns the last month or so, to go along with primary scorer Javan Felix. But this is a team that needs another guy to step up and make shots.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Baylor wins 74-70 (66% chance for win)

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Massey.com – Baylor wins 74-71 (61% chance for win)

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RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 80-72

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor wins 78-74

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The Bears offense has been missing the past few games, only beak 72 points once in Big 12 play so far. The Bears shooting has just been up and down all over the court. One game they can't hit a 3-pointer, the next they hit almost 50%. One game they hit 21 of 21 of their free throws, the next two games they can't break 50%. There has been no consistency to what the Bears do on offense.

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This is the game that Baylor starts to rediscover its identity. With Kenny Chery operating the pick and roll with Cory Jefferson, the Bears get Cameron Ridley in early foul trouble as Baylor gets him moving. They also start getting the ball inside with the dribble and dish to an open post player. The Bears get out to a big lead in the first half, but Texas makes a run as the Bears hang on for a much needed home victory over Texas.

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These are two squads heading in very different directions than what most thought they would be. The Bears, a Top 10 team just a few weeks ago, are stumbling and have lost three of their last four games and are just 1-4 in Big 12 play. The Longhorns, in the midst of a rebuilding effort to get back to being a good team, are on a 4-game winning streak and more than likely will move up in the rankings and be Top 25 team with a win over Baylor.

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