A Look at West Virginia

With both teams in the midst of losing trends, Baylor and West Virginia meet looking to get back in the winning column and to try and save their seasons.

With both teams desperate for wins, this should be an exciting game, or one filled with the mediocrity and abysmal play that has both teams in extended losing slumps. West Virginia has lost 4 of their past 5 games, with their lone victory being over Texas Tech at home. Baylor has lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 in their current stretch. These are two scuffling teams desperately looking for a win to right the ship and get back into the postseason discussion.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Jan. 28, 2014| 6:00 p.m. CT
Location Waco, TX
TV ESPN2
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Royce O'Neale
Taurean Prince
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 - 5-11,180
#24 - 6-6, 220
#24 - 6-7, 210
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Junior
Sophomore
Senior
Sophomore
West Virginia Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Juwan Staten
Eron Harris
Terry Henderson
Kevin Noreen
Devin Williams
#3 - 6-1, 190
#10 - 6-3, 195
#15 - 6-4, 200
#34 – 6-10, 250
#5 - 6-9, 255
Junior
Sophomore
Sophomore
Junior
Freshman

For some reason, this just doesn't feel like a Bob Huggins type team. They are big down low, but don't have the same nastiness that has characterized Huggins' teams in the past. Gone is Deniz Kilicli, who seemed to be in Morgantown for about 9 years. In his stead is Kevin Noreen, a 6-foot-10, 250 pound banger down low. More of a space eater than anything, Noreen has a limited game offensively and defensively. What he is in there to do is use his fouls, protect the paint and make sure nothing easy is happening in the lane. The Mountaineers main post man is freshman Devin Williams, who is their leading rebounder. WVU will also rotate in Nathan Adrian and Brandon Watkins, who are both 6-foot-9. The Mountaineers have height, but their scoring impact is from their smaller guys.

The leading scorers for WVU is point guard Juwan Staten, a pass first point guard who excels at getting into the lane, and shooting guard Eron Harris, a developed shooter who has a good outside shot. They both average 17 points per game for the Mountaineers. Terry Henderson also chips in over 12 points per game, as their guards attack the rim and can stretch a defense very effectively. This is a good offensive team, that is still trying to find its way on defense.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Defensively, they will mix up a man to man defense with a 2-3 zone that takes advantage of their quick guards and hides their defensive weaknesses. They are similar to Baylor in that way, though their man defense is much stronger than the Bears. While they have good size in the front-court, their only guard or wing over 6-foot-4 is Remi Dab (6-foot-7) and he is more of a jump shooter.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor West Virginia
AP Poll 24 N/A
Coaches Poll 23 N/A
KenPom 54 68
Massey 54 79
Sagarin 53 62
RealTime RPI 55 95
RPI Forecast 59 93
ESPN RPI 52 85
ESPN BPI 58 57

Both of these teams have fallen drastically in the analytical metrics, with the Bears only being ranked in the polls still due to this article being written before those polls updated. This is not even close to a matchup of Top 25 teams. Both of these teams are playing bad basketball, with the Mountaineers only able to beat the Red Raiders in recent weeks, something the Bears couldn't even do.

The Bears are higher ranked than West Virginia in all rankings, except for the BPI metric used by ESPN which has had the Bears lower than all other all season until now. With their rankings firmly in the 50s, the Bears are a team that needs a win to once again get into the conversation of post season play. West Virginia is in the middle of a rebuilding year, and have played like it. Their best wins are the two they have against Texas Tech, with no other win coming against a top 150 team according to KenPom.

The Stats

College Basketball Stats

Baylor again is favored in three of the four factors, all but that pesky turnover one. Baylor's strength in effective field goal shooting has dwindled over the past three games though, as their shooting has left them. Rebounding and getting to the free throw line have been steady, though the free throw shooting has been quite dreadful recently, though they did hit 21-32 against the Longhorns.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank West Virginia Rank
KenPom Effeciency 111.8 49 103.9 163
Points Per Possession 1.15 23 1.03 157
Effective FG % 53.0% 62 49.4% 181
Turnover % 19.2% 238 19.5% 116
Rebound % 42.7% 2 67.1% 255
3P % 38.9% 34 34.4% 196
2P % 50.4% 127 48.2% 173

West Virginia has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank West Virginia Rank
KenPom Effeciency 100.3 97 114.0 31
Points Per Possession 1.02 135 1.15 23
Effective FG % 47.2% 101 51.9% 89
Turnover % 16.1% 320 14.3% 8
Rebound % 68.6% 193 34.6% 99
3P % 34.1% 178 38.5% 45
2P % 45.4% 90 48.8% 185

All of these statistics can pretty much be thrown out, especially the ones for the Baylor offense. The last 4 games have seen a bad offense and a defense that really hasn't done very well in any area, except for 1 half against Kansas. The last 3-game outlook is even worse. But still, there is a good and efficient offense somewhere in a Baylor uniform. We have seen it against good competition for months, just not in Big 12 play. If the Bears offense actually shows up against West Virginia, and not the cold shooting bunch that have shape-shifted into the Bears form, Baylor should play well against a defense that is just not very good. While the guards of West Virginia are the strength offensive, they leave a lot to be desired on the other end of the court (sound familiar Baylor fans?).

Offensively, the Mountaineers are incredibly talented, behind their three guards and they get enough from their big guys to keep a defense honest. They will look to setup their shooters either with motion and picks or with dribble penetration. They play tough inside and they are good at initiating contact and drawing fouls. WVU also runs a very safe offense, on that does not turn the ball over very much, and one that will take time off of the shot clock.

Keys to the Game

1. Hit some shots – In the last three games, the Bears effective field goal shooting percentage is 43.7%. On the year, they are averaging 51.4%, even including the terrible slump they have found themselves in the last few weeks. This is too good of a shooting team to keep missing so many shots. A team wide shooting slump has hit, and the Bears have to find a way to score. Against Texas, they didn't score a field goal in back to back possessions all game. That is just incredible.

Baylor's offense has stagnated so much that it has devolved into a bunch of guys standing around, waiting for someone else to do something. They are not cutting and passing the ball nearly as much and are simply just standing still. Everyone seems to be simply waiting for another guy to make a play, and that is the worst thing you can do when in a slump. Taurean Prince and Gary Franklin did have some success against Texas, but everyone else seemed to just miss shots they should make. Hopefully, the Bears have been in the gym figuring out their shots, because if they don't make a lot more shots than they have the past 4 games, this losing streak will get much worse.

The Mountaineers defense has been quite suspect in Big 12 play, allowing 80 points in four of their size conference games and never less than 73. They have been burned by shooters quite a bit, as Texas Tech shot 12-19 behind the arc on the 22nd. The Mountaineers have also struggled terribly with the new rules enforcement, causing a bunch of fouls and trips to the free throw line for the opposition. They have five of their 8 regular rotation players committing more than 4 fouls per 40 minutes of action, which is a very high rate.

2. Pay attention to the scouting reports – Juwan Staten is one of the best dribble penetration guards in the Big 12. That should send shivers down the spines of every Baylor fan, especially after seeing what Isaiah Taylor did to them on Saturday afternoon. Staten is not the finished that Taylor is, but he is excellent at getting the defense to come to him and then kicking it out to an open shooter. The Mountaineers have quite a few good shooters around Staten, including Eron Harris, Terry Henderson and Remi Dibo. Staten is also very good at initiating contact and drawing fouls, where he hits over 72% of his shots. He is one of the best assist men in the country though, getting an assist on 31% of his offensive possessions (69th highest rate in the country) and averages 5.85 assists pre game.

There are guys that the Bears will have to pay attention to when challenging on the perimeter and guys that they won't have to. The Bears will have to do a much better job of knowing who it is there are challenging. Simply put, the Bears have to make Staten shoot from the outside and can't let him get around them into the paint. They also have to take away the jumper of Eron Harris and make him put the ball on the court. Against Texas, the Bears simply failed consistently with knowing who they were going out to challenge, allowing jumper shooters too much room and guys that don't want to shoot an easy lane to the rim.

3. Attack the Boards – the Mountaineers are not a very good rebounding team, something that you would not expect from a Bob Huggins squad. They are above average on the offensive glass, led by center Devin Williams, but they are a bad defensive rebounding team, ranking 255th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. The Bears are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Baylor has had a lot of chances to collect errant shots recently, and they will have to get at least 35% of them in this game. Second chance points and easy put backs are one of the best cures for an offense that is struggling.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Baylor wins 74-69 (70% chance for win)

Massey.com – Baylor wins 75-71 (66% chance for win)

RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 81-69

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Bears win 83-78

This has to be the game, right? It has to be. This is the one that the real Baylor Bears show up again. The one that beat Kentucky and a fully loaded Colorado team. The one that battled against Syracuse. That team is still in there, it just has been lost for almost a month now. This might be the perfect team to cure the Bears ills against. The Mountaineers are a below average defensive team, that can't guard 3-point shooters, and gives up a ton of offensive rebounds. Baylor should beat this team handily at home, but who really knows. Looking at this game with the whole season in mind, the Bears should win this game by 9-12 points. But after the past 4 games, who really knows. This is a pick for the Bears, but not one with any confidence at all.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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Defensively, they will mix up a man to man defense with a 2-3 zone that takes advantage of their quick guards and hides their defensive weaknesses. They are similar to Baylor in that way, though their man defense is much stronger than the Bears. While they have good size in the front-court, their only guard or wing over 6-foot-4 is Remi Dab (6-foot-7) and he is more of a jump shooter.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorWest Virginia
AP Poll24N/A
Coaches Poll 23N/A
KenPom 5468
Massey 5479
Sagarin 5362
RealTime RPI 5595
RPI Forecast 5993
ESPN RPI 5285
ESPN BPI58\t57
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Both of these teams have fallen drastically in the analytical metrics, with the Bears only being ranked in the polls still due to this article being written before those polls updated. This is not even close to a matchup of Top 25 teams. Both of these teams are playing bad basketball, with the Mountaineers only able to beat the Red Raiders in recent weeks, something the Bears couldn't even do.

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The Bears are higher ranked than West Virginia in all rankings, except for the BPI metric used by ESPN which has had the Bears lower than all other all season until now. With their rankings firmly in the 50s, the Bears are a team that needs a win to once again get into the conversation of post season play. West Virginia is in the middle of a rebuilding year, and have played like it. Their best wins are the two they have against Texas Tech, with no other win coming against a top 150 team according to KenPom.

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The Stats

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Baylor again is favored in three of the four factors, all but that pesky turnover one. Baylor's strength in effective field goal shooting has dwindled over the past three games though, as their shooting has left them. Rebounding and getting to the free throw line have been steady, though the free throw shooting has been quite dreadful recently, though they did hit 21-32 against the Longhorns.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankWest VirginiaRank
KenPom Effeciency111.849103.9163
Points Per Possession1.15231.03157
Effective FG %53.0%6249.4%181
Turnover %19.2%23819.5%116
Rebound %42.7%267.1%255
3P %38.9%3434.4%196
2P %50.4%12748.2%173
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West Virginia has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankWest VirginiaRank
KenPom Effeciency100.397114.031
Points Per Possession1.021351.1523
Effective FG %47.2%10151.9%89
Turnover %16.1%32014.3%8
Rebound %68.6%19334.6%99
3P %34.1%17838.5%45
2P %45.4%9048.8%185
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All of these statistics can pretty much be thrown out, especially the ones for the Baylor offense. The last 4 games have seen a bad offense and a defense that really hasn't done very well in any area, except for 1 half against Kansas. The last 3-game outlook is even worse. But still, there is a good and efficient offense somewhere in a Baylor uniform. We have seen it against good competition for months, just not in Big 12 play. If the Bears offense actually shows up against West Virginia, and not the cold shooting bunch that have shape-shifted into the Bears form, Baylor should play well against a defense that is just not very good. While the guards of West Virginia are the strength offensive, they leave a lot to be desired on the other end of the court (sound familiar Baylor fans?).

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Offensively, the Mountaineers are incredibly talented, behind their three guards and they get enough from their big guys to keep a defense honest. They will look to setup their shooters either with motion and picks or with dribble penetration. They play tough inside and they are good at initiating contact and drawing fouls. WVU also runs a very safe offense, on that does not turn the ball over very much, and one that will take time off of the shot clock.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Hit some shots – In the last three games, the Bears effective field goal shooting percentage is 43.7%. On the year, they are averaging 51.4%, even including the terrible slump they have found themselves in the last few weeks. This is too good of a shooting team to keep missing so many shots. A team wide shooting slump has hit, and the Bears have to find a way to score. Against Texas, they didn't score a field goal in back to back possessions all game. That is just incredible.

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Baylor's offense has stagnated so much that it has devolved into a bunch of guys standing around, waiting for someone else to do something. They are not cutting and passing the ball nearly as much and are simply just standing still. Everyone seems to be simply waiting for another guy to make a play, and that is the worst thing you can do when in a slump. Taurean Prince and Gary Franklin did have some success against Texas, but everyone else seemed to just miss shots they should make. Hopefully, the Bears have been in the gym figuring out their shots, because if they don't make a lot more shots than they have the past 4 games, this losing streak will get much worse.

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The Mountaineers defense has been quite suspect in Big 12 play, allowing 80 points in four of their size conference games and never less than 73. They have been burned by shooters quite a bit, as Texas Tech shot 12-19 behind the arc on the 22nd. The Mountaineers have also struggled terribly with the new rules enforcement, causing a bunch of fouls and trips to the free throw line for the opposition. They have five of their 8 regular rotation players committing more than 4 fouls per 40 minutes of action, which is a very high rate.

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2. Pay attention to the scouting reports – Juwan Staten is one of the best dribble penetration guards in the Big 12. That should send shivers down the spines of every Baylor fan, especially after seeing what Isaiah Taylor did to them on Saturday afternoon. Staten is not the finished that Taylor is, but he is excellent at getting the defense to come to him and then kicking it out to an open shooter. The Mountaineers have quite a few good shooters around Staten, including Eron Harris, Terry Henderson and Remi Dibo. Staten is also very good at initiating contact and drawing fouls, where he hits over 72% of his shots. He is one of the best assist men in the country though, getting an assist on 31% of his offensive possessions (69th highest rate in the country) and averages 5.85 assists pre game.

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There are guys that the Bears will have to pay attention to when challenging on the perimeter and guys that they won't have to. The Bears will have to do a much better job of knowing who it is there are challenging. Simply put, the Bears have to make Staten shoot from the outside and can't let him get around them into the paint. They also have to take away the jumper of Eron Harris and make him put the ball on the court. Against Texas, the Bears simply failed consistently with knowing who they were going out to challenge, allowing jumper shooters too much room and guys that don't want to shoot an easy lane to the rim.

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3. Attack the Boards – the Mountaineers are not a very good rebounding team, something that you would not expect from a Bob Huggins squad. They are above average on the offensive glass, led by center Devin Williams, but they are a bad defensive rebounding team, ranking 255th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. The Bears are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Baylor has had a lot of chances to collect errant shots recently, and they will have to get at least 35% of them in this game. Second chance points and easy put backs are one of the best cures for an offense that is struggling.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Baylor wins 74-69 (70% chance for win)

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Massey.com – Baylor wins 75-71 (66% chance for win)

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RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 81-69

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Bears win 83-78

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This has to be the game, right? It has to be. This is the one that the real Baylor Bears show up again. The one that beat Kentucky and a fully loaded Colorado team. The one that battled against Syracuse. That team is still in there, it just has been lost for almost a month now. This might be the perfect team to cure the Bears ills against. The Mountaineers are a below average defensive team, that can't guard 3-point shooters, and gives up a ton of offensive rebounds. Baylor should beat this team handily at home, but who really knows. Looking at this game with the whole season in mind, the Bears should win this game by 9-12 points. But after the past 4 games, who really knows. This is a pick for the Bears, but not one with any confidence at all.

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With both teams desperate for wins, this should be an exciting game, or one filled with the mediocrity and abysmal play that has both teams in extended losing slumps. West Virginia has lost 4 of their past 5 games, with their lone victory being over Texas Tech at home. Baylor has lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 in their current stretch. These are two scuffling teams desperately looking for a win to right the ship and get back into the postseason discussion.

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