Another Look at Oklahoma

Baylor looks to get another big road win in the State of Oklahoma to try and salvage its season with little room for error.

The Baylor Bears hit the road this weekend, going up north to visit Norman, Oklahoma to take on the Sooners. Baylor at 14-8, and just 2-7 in conference play are desperate for a win, especially against a Top 25 team. Oklahoma has lost its last 2 games though after a 6-2 start to Big 12 play. They are just 17-6 on the year overall with a 6-4 conference record.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Feb. 8, 2014| 6:00 p.m. CT
Location Norman, OK
TV ESPN2
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Brady Heslip
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 - 5-11,180
#5 - 6-2, 180
#00 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Oklahoma Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Jordan Woodard
Isaiah Cousins
Buddy Hield
Cameron Clark
Ryan Spanlger
#10 – 6-0, 185
#11 - 6-4, 186
#24 - 6-4, 208
#21 - 6-7, 211
#00 - 6-8, 232
Freshman
Sophomore
Sophomore
Senior
Sophomore

The big question again for the Bears will be the availability of starting point guard Kenny Chery. He has not started the last two games, and played an ineffective 11 minutes against Kansas on Tuesday night. The junior has not been practicing with the team for several weeks now, so it will be interesting to see if he can give it a go tonight, or if senior guard Gary Franklin gets his 3rd straight start at the point guard position.

The Sooners have had the same starting five the entire season, which is very rare. They have not had any shuffling or even a minor injury to any of their 5 regular starters. Oklahoma runs a smaller team out there, with 3 guards, a wing player and a post player. Cameron Clark, their second leading scorer at 15 points per game, moves down from his more natural small forward position to power forward to give the Sooners a very dangerous 4-man out offense. With four shooters and a capable post player in Ryan Spangler, Oklahoma displays tremendous spacing and does a great job getting open shots.

NCAA Basketball Stats

The Sooners leading scorer, and the main reason for the win earlier in the year in Waco, is sophomore Buddy Hield, who last year was the primary point guard for Oklahoma before injury ended his season early. This year though, he is playing purely on the wings and is becoming one of the best scorers in the Big 12. He is a good penetrator, mid-range shooter and 3-point shooter, though he is not elite at any of them. He has made over 31% of their Sooner 3-pointers this year, and is shooting a very good 38.6% on those shots. OU is a good 3-point shooting team, with 6 players who have made more than 20 on the year, and all of those shooting at least 33% from behind the arc.

What Happened Last Time?

No. 12 Baylor Falls to No. 25 Oklahoma

Baylor lost its second straight game and third out of four games by 2-points. Baylor could not stop Buddy Hield in the second half as he scored all 19 of his points to get the Sooners a big road win. Baylor's struggles at the free throw line were another culprit as they made just 10 of 20 attempts.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Oklahoma
AP Poll N/A 21
Coaches Poll 34 23
KenPom 57 37
Massey 53 26
Sagarin 55 31
RealTime RPI 57 22
RPI Forecast 61 33
ESPN RPI 56 28
ESPN BPI 54 22

The Sooners are a Top 25 team in both polls and a right around a Top 30 team in most of the analytical metrics. Oklahoma has played better and better through the season, until their 2-game losing streak hit. They have added wins over TCU, Texas Tech and a big one against Oklahoma State since the Bears last saw them.

The Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

The Bears again hold quite well in the 4-factors against a higher ranked team. Baylor's shooting percentages though are carried by the strong start to the season that seems like 10 years ago. The fact is, Baylor has not been a good shooting team for all of conference play. They have had some good half's of basketball, but have only been able to put together a complete game on two occasions (both happen to be wins).

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Oklahoma Rank
KenPom Effeciency 110.1 68 101.0 109
Points Per Possession 1.14 42 1.07 172
Effective FG % 52.7% 67 49.2% 171
Turnover % 19.6% 257 17.8% 232
Rebound % 40.7% 6 69.8% 129
3P % 39.6% 22 33.3% 132
2P % 49.4% 161 49.0% 199

Oklahoma has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Oklahoma Rank
KenPom Effeciency 99.0 74 116.2 16
Points Per Possession 1.03 147 1.12 58
Effective FG % 47.6% 111 51.3% 113
Turnover % 16.2% 313 16.2% 49
Rebound % 69.1% 165 32.9% 141
3P % 39.6% 196 37.1% 78
2P % 45.6% 93 49.0% 178

Saying all of that, the Bears offense is better than the Sooners defense, which has been pretty average all season. Baylor gains most of its advantage from two things they have done on a good to elite level most of the year; offensive rebounding and hitting 3-pointers. Their points per possession is still in the Top 50, even with the poor shooting the past month. While the Bears have gotten better at their turnover %s, the Sooners are not a team designed to exploit that. They are below average at forcing turnovers and are right around average in pretty much every way on the defensive side of the court.

Where the Sooners are great though is on offense. Their 4-out system gives them quite a bit of room for swing passes or dribble penetration. They are a great offense to beat a zone defense, especially one like the Bears which gives up corner 3-pointers. If the Sooners can get dribble penetration or swing the ball quickly enough to catch the Bears scrambling, they should get open looks. While not as good as the Bears at shooting the 3-point shot, they are quite good and have more guys that can hit those shots. The Sooners overall though are not a great shooting team. They are good, but their value offensively comes from good 3-point shooting, a low turnover rate, and not being terrible at anything else. They are an average rebounding team on that side of the court, and hit a solid enough % of their 2-point shots to not derail their attack.

Keys to the Game

1. Simply make shots – The Bears shooting against Kansas was absolutely dreadful, but really, since Big 12 play started, they have just missed too many shots. Baylor has made just 40.5% of their shots in conference. Kenny Chery (38.6%), Isaiah Austin (35.1%), Royce O'Neale (41.9%) and Cory Jefferson (44.7%) have all seen at least a 10% drop in their shooting percentages from non-conference to conference play. Only Ish Wainright is shooting a higher percentage in conference play, but he has made just 4 of 7 shots. Every other player has shot the ball less effectively in Big 12 play. Simply put, the Bears just have to make some shots.

2. Keep OU off of the foul line – The Sooners have one other area where they excel at. They are great at not only getting to the foul line, but also converting those attempts. They have the 3rd most free throw attempts in the league during conference play at 248, but have hit a league best 78.2% during Big 12 play. The Bears have the fewest attempts and also the lowest shooting %. During an average Big 12 game, the Sooners would outscore the Bears from the free throw line by over 6 points. That is a tremendous head start for the Sooners.

The best player at getting to the line for OU is point guard Jordan Woodard, who draws the 75th most fouls per 40 minutes in the nation at 6.7. He makes 77.2% of his foul shots, so he is very successful when he does get to the line. Cameron Clark is even better at the line, and gets there almost as much. This is a team that wants to get fouled, and tries to take advantage of that skill. Clark and Woodard went to the line a combined 11 times, hitting 8 of them. As a team, they made 15-20 foul shots.

3. Get the OU posts in foul trouble – Speaking of fouls, the Sooners are a small team down low. The Bears had quite a bit of success against Oklahoma State, who is also an undersized post team. With Ryan Spanlger their only player 6-foot-8 or taller that plays big minutes, the Sooners have to have him and Clark out there to be effective. Spangler is a terrific rebounder on both ends of the court, and carries a huge burden on the glass. He is averaging a Big 12 high 11 rebounds per game during conference play, 2 more than any other player. Only Cameron Clark averages more than 4 rebounds per game with the rest of the team just grabbing 1-2.

The Bears should attack down low, and force Spangler to make tough decisions on defense. He knows he can't get into early foul trouble, so take advantage of that or put him on the bench with 2 fouls. Cory Jefferson has gotten away from forcing fouls the past few games, but he did that exceptionally last year at times.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Oklahoma wins 79-72 (26% chance for Baylor win)

Massey.com – Oklahoma wins 80-74 (28% chance for Baylor win)

RealTime RPI – Oklahoma wins 88-79

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor wins 81-78

Call it a shot in the dark, but I think the Bears have the matchup edge in this one, especially if they can just hit some shots. Baylor played their best game of the year against a similar style team in Oklahoma State, and OU is a worse version of them. While the skills of Woodard are a bad matchup for the Bears perimeter defense, I think Baylor fans will see a healthier version of Kenny Chery this game. That would be huge for the stretch run, one that the Bears find themselves with maybe 3 more losses before the NCAA tournament bubble hopes are fully popped. A desperate team comes out, hits some big shots and gets a 2nd win over a Top 25 Oklahoma school on the road.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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The Sooners leading scorer, and the main reason for the win earlier in the year in Waco, is sophomore Buddy Hield, who last year was the primary point guard for Oklahoma before injury ended his season early. This year though, he is playing purely on the wings and is becoming one of the best scorers in the Big 12. He is a good penetrator, mid-range shooter and 3-point shooter, though he is not elite at any of them. He has made over 31% of their Sooner 3-pointers this year, and is shooting a very good 38.6% on those shots. OU is a good 3-point shooting team, with 6 players who have made more than 20 on the year, and all of those shooting at least 33% from behind the arc.

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What Happened Last Time?

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No. 12 Baylor Falls to No. 25 Oklahoma

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Baylor lost its second straight game and third out of four games by 2-points. Baylor could not stop Buddy Hield in the second half as he scored all 19 of his points to get the Sooners a big road win. Baylor's struggles at the free throw line were another culprit as they made just 10 of 20 attempts.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorOklahoma
AP PollN/A21
Coaches Poll3423
KenPom5737
Massey5326
Sagarin5531
RealTime RPI5722
RPI Forecast6133
ESPN RPI5628
ESPN BPI5422
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The Sooners are a Top 25 team in both polls and a right around a Top 30 team in most of the analytical metrics. Oklahoma has played better and better through the season, until their 2-game losing streak hit. They have added wins over TCU, Texas Tech and a big one against Oklahoma State since the Bears last saw them.

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The Stats

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The Bears again hold quite well in the 4-factors against a higher ranked team. Baylor's shooting percentages though are carried by the strong start to the season that seems like 10 years ago. The fact is, Baylor has not been a good shooting team for all of conference play. They have had some good half's of basketball, but have only been able to put together a complete game on two occasions (both happen to be wins).

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankOklahomaRank
KenPom Effeciency110.168101.0109
Points Per Possession1.14421.07172
Effective FG %52.7%6749.2%171
Turnover %19.6%25717.8%232
Rebound %40.7%669.8%129
3P %39.6%2233.3%132
2P %49.4%16149.0%199
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Oklahoma has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRank Oklahoma Rank
KenPom Effeciency99.074116.216
Points Per Possession1.031471.1258
Effective FG %47.6%11151.3%113
Turnover %16.2%31316.2%49
Rebound %69.1%16532.9%141
3P %39.6%19637.1%78
2P %45.6%9349.0%178
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Saying all of that, the Bears offense is better than the Sooners defense, which has been pretty average all season. Baylor gains most of its advantage from two things they have done on a good to elite level most of the year; offensive rebounding and hitting 3-pointers. Their points per possession is still in the Top 50, even with the poor shooting the past month. While the Bears have gotten better at their turnover %s, the Sooners are not a team designed to exploit that. They are below average at forcing turnovers and are right around average in pretty much every way on the defensive side of the court.

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Where the Sooners are great though is on offense. Their 4-out system gives them quite a bit of room for swing passes or dribble penetration. They are a great offense to beat a zone defense, especially one like the Bears which gives up corner 3-pointers. If the Sooners can get dribble penetration or swing the ball quickly enough to catch the Bears scrambling, they should get open looks. While not as good as the Bears at shooting the 3-point shot, they are quite good and have more guys that can hit those shots. The Sooners overall though are not a great shooting team. They are good, but their value offensively comes from good 3-point shooting, a low turnover rate, and not being terrible at anything else. They are an average rebounding team on that side of the court, and hit a solid enough % of their 2-point shots to not derail their attack.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Simply make shots – The Bears shooting against Kansas was absolutely dreadful, but really, since Big 12 play started, they have just missed too many shots. Baylor has made just 40.5% of their shots in conference. Kenny Chery (38.6%), Isaiah Austin (35.1%), Royce O'Neale (41.9%) and Cory Jefferson (44.7%) have all seen at least a 10% drop in their shooting percentages from non-conference to conference play. Only Ish Wainright is shooting a higher percentage in conference play, but he has made just 4 of 7 shots. Every other player has shot the ball less effectively in Big 12 play. Simply put, the Bears just have to make some shots.

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2. Keep OU off of the foul line – The Sooners have one other area where they excel at. They are great at not only getting to the foul line, but also converting those attempts. They have the 3rd most free throw attempts in the league during conference play at 248, but have hit a league best 78.2% during Big 12 play. The Bears have the fewest attempts and also the lowest shooting %. During an average Big 12 game, the Sooners would outscore the Bears from the free throw line by over 6 points. That is a tremendous head start for the Sooners.

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The best player at getting to the line for OU is point guard Jordan Woodard, who draws the 75th most fouls per 40 minutes in the nation at 6.7. He makes 77.2% of his foul shots, so he is very successful when he does get to the line. Cameron Clark is even better at the line, and gets there almost as much. This is a team that wants to get fouled, and tries to take advantage of that skill. Clark and Woodard went to the line a combined 11 times, hitting 8 of them. As a team, they made 15-20 foul shots.

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3. Get the OU posts in foul trouble – Speaking of fouls, the Sooners are a small team down low. The Bears had quite a bit of success against Oklahoma State, who is also an undersized post team. With Ryan Spanlger their only player 6-foot-8 or taller that plays big minutes, the Sooners have to have him and Clark out there to be effective. Spangler is a terrific rebounder on both ends of the court, and carries a huge burden on the glass. He is averaging a Big 12 high 11 rebounds per game during conference play, 2 more than any other player. Only Cameron Clark averages more than 4 rebounds per game with the rest of the team just grabbing 1-2.

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The Bears should attack down low, and force Spangler to make tough decisions on defense. He knows he can't get into early foul trouble, so take advantage of that or put him on the bench with 2 fouls. Cory Jefferson has gotten away from forcing fouls the past few games, but he did that exceptionally last year at times.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Oklahoma wins 79-72 (26% chance for Baylor win)

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Massey.com – Oklahoma wins 80-74 (28% chance for Baylor win)

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RealTime RPI – Oklahoma wins 88-79

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor wins 81-78

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Call it a shot in the dark, but I think the Bears have the matchup edge in this one, especially if they can just hit some shots. Baylor played their best game of the year against a similar style team in Oklahoma State, and OU is a worse version of them. While the skills of Woodard are a bad matchup for the Bears perimeter defense, I think Baylor fans will see a healthier version of Kenny Chery this game. That would be huge for the stretch run, one that the Bears find themselves with maybe 3 more losses before the NCAA tournament bubble hopes are fully popped. A desperate team comes out, hits some big shots and gets a 2nd win over a Top 25 Oklahoma school on the road.

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The Baylor Bears hit the road this weekend, going up north to visit Norman, Oklahoma to take on the Sooners. Baylor at 14-8, and just 2-7 in conference play are desperate for a win, especially against a Top 25 team. Oklahoma has lost its last 2 games though after a 6-2 start to Big 12 play. They are just 17-6 on the year overall with a 6-4 conference record.

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