Another look at TCU

The Bears, desperate for a win of any kind take on the last place team in the Big 12.

The Baylor Bears, currently on a 2 game losing streak look to right their ship again with a trip to Fort Worth to take on the winless in Big 12 play TCU Horned Frogs. At 0-10 in Big 12 play, the Frogs are the weakest team in the Big 12.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Feb. 12, 2014| 6:00 p.m. CT
Location Fort Worth, TX
TV ESPNU
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Gary Franklin
Brady Heslip
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#4 – 6-2, 190
#5 - 6-2, 180
#00 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Senior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
TCU Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kyan Anderson
Brandon Parrish
Jarvis Ray
Amric Fields
Karviar Shepherd
#5 - 5-11, 175
#11 - 6-6, 185
#22 - 6-6, 195
#4 - 6-9, 220
#1 - 6-10, 225
Junior
Freshman
Senior
Junior
Freshman

TCU will have the same starting lineup that they used earlier this year in Waco, with Kyan Anderson being the focal point of their offense. He is the point guard, their leading scorer, leading assistor and best player. Anderson averages 34 minutes per game, so he is out there almost the entire game as well. The two wings for TCU are both 6-foot-6 and both are stronger defenders than offensive players. The other primary offensive threat for TCU is Amric Fields, a 6-foot-10 power forward who comes into the game averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds per game. The man in the middle is Karviar Shepherd, a good looking freshman who is leading them in rebounds with over 7 per game.

NCAA Basketball

What Happened Last Time?

Bears Demolish Horned Frogs

The Bears got back to .500 in conference play with a dominating 88-62 win. Baylor destroyed the Frogs on the glass, out-rebounding TCU 54-25. Five Bears scored in double figures, with Taurean Prince leading the way with 23 points.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor TCU
AP Poll N/A N/A
Coaches Poll N/A N/A
KenPom 62 206
Massey 61 190
Sagarin 59 175
RealTime RPI 58 199
RPI Forecast 67 198
ESPN RPI 59 196
ESPN BPI 63 186

While the Bears have stumbled quite a bit in the rankings since the last time these two teams faced each other, the Frogs are still near the bottom of the power conference schools. They are right around the 190s in terms of their rank, and are still looking for their first Big 12 win.

The Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

The Bears advantage on the glass is as big as you will see in a conference game. Simply put, the Bears are an elite offensive rebounding team, and TCU is one of the worst in the country. They are on different ends of the outlier spectrum. Forget the bell curve. The Bears also have a large advantage in terms of shooting, though most of that advantage was built long ago. Recently, these two teams are much closer in terms of shooting results than any Baylor fan would want to admit.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank TCU Rank
KenPom Effeciency 110.0 60 101.1 110
Points Per Possession 1.13 37 1.04 175
Effective FG % 52.5% 67 48.0% 120
Turnover % 19.3% 240 19.1% 142
Rebound % 40.3% 6 64.2% 324
3P % 39.5% 21 33.0% 112
2P % 49.2% 168 47.3% 139

When TCU has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank TCU Rank
KenPom Effeciency 100.1 89 98.2 284
Points Per Possession 1.04 175 0.98 305
Effective FG % 48.4% 137 45.7% 329
Turnover % 16.0% 325 17.2% 98
Rebound % 69.0% 166 25.3 334
3P % 35.4% 244 32.9% 242
2P % 46.0% 104 44.2% 333

This is a terrible TCU offense. It is so bad; the Bears bad defense dominates them in pretty much every single category, except for turnover percentage. TCU can't shoot from anywhere on the court during live action, as they are only good at hitting free throws. Everywhere else; they are one of the bottom 50 teams in the nation. This is a truly awful offense and one that the bears held to just 38% shooting in the first half of their game on January 11th.

Keys to the Game

1. Limit the Turnovers – TCU as an offense doesn't turn the ball over that much, and as a defense are slightly above average at forcing turnovers. They like to throw some presses and traps at you randomly, and will jump passing lanes quite a bit. The Bears have struggled this year with turnovers, though it has gotten quite a bit better the past few games. TCU though is a team that needs transition points to survive on offense, as their half-court offense is one of the worst in college basketball.

2. Don't foul – TCU's best and only consistent way of scoring is from the foul line. They get 26.7% of their points from the foul line (20th highest rate in the country) and hit a very solid 72.9% from the charity stripe. They attempt 23 foul shots a game with Kyan Anderson being their best penetrator and guy that can draw fouls. TCU wants to play at a very slow tempo, so if they get fouled, it will either restart that shot clock or send them to the foul line. Baylor can't give the Horned Frogs too many free points and extra possessions.

3. Hit those Shots – Baylor shot very well in the first half of their game against Oklahoma, but shot under 40% in the 2nd half. They have had spurts of good shooting, but have not really put a good shooting game together outside of their two wins. TCU is a team that gives up quality 3-point looks all over the court, and doesn't have great length or size in the interior to challenge shots. This is a defense that can help most offenses get into a rhythm. They are also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, giving up the 12th most offensive rebounds in the country. That should have the Bears licking their chops.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Baylor wins 65-61 (70% chance for win)

Massey.com – Baylor wins 67-61 (73% chance for win)

RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 74-72

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor wins 74-59

This is a game that the Bears simply have to win. TCU has lost 10 games, and is being outscored in Big 12 play by an average of 14.8 points per game. That is 9.4 points worse than any other team in the Big 12. TCU averages 9 points fewer than any other Big 12 team has scored in Big 12 play, and without an offense to take advantage of the Bears inability to guard effectively, Baylor finally gets their transition offense going and gets an easy win.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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What Happened Last Time?

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Bears Demolish Horned Frogs

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The Bears got back to .500 in conference play with a dominating 88-62 win. Baylor destroyed the Frogs on the glass, out-rebounding TCU 54-25. Five Bears scored in double figures, with Taurean Prince leading the way with 23 points.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorTCU
AP Poll N/A N/A
Coaches Poll N/A N/A
KenPom62206
Massey61190
Sagarin59175
RealTime RPI58199
RPI Forecast67198
ESPN RPI59196
ESPN BPI63186
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While the Bears have stumbled quite a bit in the rankings since the last time these two teams faced each other, the Frogs are still near the bottom of the power conference schools. They are right around the 190s in terms of their rank, and are still looking for their first Big 12 win.

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The Stats

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The Bears advantage on the glass is as big as you will see in a conference game. Simply put, the Bears are an elite offensive rebounding team, and TCU is one of the worst in the country. They are on different ends of the outlier spectrum. Forget the bell curve. The Bears also have a large advantage in terms of shooting, though most of that advantage was built long ago. Recently, these two teams are much closer in terms of shooting results than any Baylor fan would want to admit.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankTCURank
KenPom Effeciency110.060101.1110
Points Per Possession1.13371.04175
Effective FG %52.5%6748.0%120
Turnover %19.3%24019.1%142
Rebound %40.3%664.2%324
3P %39.5%2133.0%112
2P %49.2%16847.3%139
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When TCU has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankTCURank
KenPom Effeciency100.18998.2284
Points Per Possession1.041750.98305
Effective FG %48.4%13745.7%329
Turnover %16.0%32517.2%98
Rebound %69.0%16625.3334
3P %35.4%24432.9%242
2P %46.0%10444.2%333
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This is a terrible TCU offense. It is so bad; the Bears bad defense dominates them in pretty much every single category, except for turnover percentage. TCU can't shoot from anywhere on the court during live action, as they are only good at hitting free throws. Everywhere else; they are one of the bottom 50 teams in the nation. This is a truly awful offense and one that the bears held to just 38% shooting in the first half of their game on January 11th.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Limit the Turnovers – TCU as an offense doesn't turn the ball over that much, and as a defense are slightly above average at forcing turnovers. They like to throw some presses and traps at you randomly, and will jump passing lanes quite a bit. The Bears have struggled this year with turnovers, though it has gotten quite a bit better the past few games. TCU though is a team that needs transition points to survive on offense, as their half-court offense is one of the worst in college basketball.

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2. Don't foul – TCU's best and only consistent way of scoring is from the foul line. They get 26.7% of their points from the foul line (20th highest rate in the country) and hit a very solid 72.9% from the charity stripe. They attempt 23 foul shots a game with Kyan Anderson being their best penetrator and guy that can draw fouls. TCU wants to play at a very slow tempo, so if they get fouled, it will either restart that shot clock or send them to the foul line. Baylor can't give the Horned Frogs too many free points and extra possessions.

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3. Hit those Shots – Baylor shot very well in the first half of their game against Oklahoma, but shot under 40% in the 2nd half. They have had spurts of good shooting, but have not really put a good shooting game together outside of their two wins. TCU is a team that gives up quality 3-point looks all over the court, and doesn't have great length or size in the interior to challenge shots. This is a defense that can help most offenses get into a rhythm. They are also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, giving up the 12th most offensive rebounds in the country. That should have the Bears licking their chops.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Baylor wins 65-61 (70% chance for win)

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Massey.com – Baylor wins 67-61 (73% chance for win)

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RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 74-72

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor wins 74-59

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This is a game that the Bears simply have to win. TCU has lost 10 games, and is being outscored in Big 12 play by an average of 14.8 points per game. That is 9.4 points worse than any other team in the Big 12. TCU averages 9 points fewer than any other Big 12 team has scored in Big 12 play, and without an offense to take advantage of the Bears inability to guard effectively, Baylor finally gets their transition offense going and gets an easy win.

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The Baylor Bears, currently on a 2 game losing streak look to right their ship again with a trip to Fort Worth to take on the winless in Big 12 play TCU Horned Frogs. At 0-10 in Big 12 play, the Frogs are the weakest team in the Big 12.

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