A Look at Kansas State

With a win Wednesday night, the Bears look to get their first winning streak in 2014 as they welcome Kansas State to the Ferrell Center.

Out of all of the numbers and previews provided here on the Baylor Bears, this is the number that shocks me the most. Baylor has not had a winning streak in 2014. They won games on December 30th and January 3rd, but since the calendar switched over to 2014, Baylor has not won back to back games. They have had a 5-game losing streak and a 2-game losing streak, but no left hand column ones. With the surging Kansas State Wildcats coming to town, the Bears will have their hands full trying to get the first of 2014.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Saturday, Feb. 15 | 6:00 p.m. CT
Location Waco, Texas; Ferrell Center (10,284)
TV ESPNU
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Brady Heslip
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 – 5-11, 180
#5 - 6-2, 180
#00 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Kansas State Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Marcus Foster
Will Spradling
Shane Southwell
Wesley Iwundu
Thomas Gipson
#2 – 6-2, 200
#55 – 6-2, 185
#1 – 6-7, 215
#25 – 6-7, 195
#42 – 6-7, 265
Freshman
Senior
Senior
Freshman
Junior

The Wildcats were supposed to be entering a rebuilding year as they lost several key contributors from their 2012-13 squad in Rodney McGruder, Angel Hernandez and Jordan Henriquez. Second year coach Bruce Webber though has rebuilt his team around freshman Marcus Porter, a legitimate candidate in a normal year for Big 12 Freshman of the year, but overshadowed by the two stars in Kansas. Porter is their leading scorer with 15 points per game, and after a terrible game against Texas Tech where he was benched, has been on fire in their last three games. He is averaging 25.67 points per game, and has made 9 of his last 13 three pointers.

Foster is much more of a shooting point guard than the ones that have given the Bears problems this year, but he can get into the paint. He takes 30.6% of all of the shots for KSU when he is on the floor (86th highest rate in the country), and shoots a very respectable 52.1% effective field goal % (counts 3-pointers and Free throws as well as 2-pointers and weighs them for value).

Alongside Foster is Will Spradling, finally a senior after what feels like a 7 year career in Manhattan. Spradling is a capable second ball handler, though he is at his best when utilized as a spot-shooter. Shane Southwell, a 6-foot-7 wing player is probably their most dynamic player. He is a very good shooter with a tremendous mid-range game. Southwell though is also their best passer and is used to initiate quite a bit of the offense, especially when they want to go down low to their center, Thomas Gipson.

The burly 265 pound junior is a beast on the boards and is their second leading scorer with 11 points per game. He does a lot of his work on the offensive glass with putbacks, but has a capable post-game as well. Next to Gipson is another freshman in Wesley Iwundu, an athletic forward who is a low-usage type player on offense. He doesn't do anything really well at this point, but he also doesn't hurt you in many ways either.

NCAA Basketball Stats

With all three of their forwards at 6-foot-7, the Wildcats do not have a ton of height. Backup post D.J. Johnson is their only player taller than 6-foot-7, and they have struggled at times with larger teams. However, their last two games have been against the two teams with as much height as the Bears, Texas and Kansas, and the Wildcats emerged with two big victories.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Kansas State
AP Poll N/A 34
Coaches Poll N/A 27
KenPom 54 31
Massey 57 34
Sagarin 51 27
RealTime RPI 56 30
RPI Forecast 61 37
ESPN RPI 53 30
ESPN BPI 57 40

The Wildcats have risen steadily in the rankings all year, especially considering where they started from. With 3 starters gone, Kansas State was supposed to be down this year, but their two freshmen starters have given them a ton of quality minutes and help them stay on track. Right now, this is an NCAA tournament team, and one that has played very well recently, especially at home.

The Stats

College Basketball Stats

The Bears dominate on the glass, while Kansas State is better than Baylor in terms of turnover percentages. Pure shooting and free throw rates favor the Bears slightly, but if you look at it in terms of just conference play, these teams are pretty even.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Kansas State Rank
KenPom Effeciency 112.3 40 93.2 14
Points Per Possession 1.14 24 0.95 25
Effective FG % 53.2% 48 44.3% 18
Turnover % 19.4% 245 19.6% 108
Rebound % 41.4% 4 67.6% 237
3P % 40.7% 10 28.7% 11
2P % 49.1% 170 44.8% 69

When Kansas State has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Kansas State Rank
KenPom Effeciency 100.3 92 107.9 106
Points Per Possession 1.04 175 1.05 181
Effective FG % 48.2% 129 49.2% 216
Turnover % 16.2% 313 18.1% 157
Rebound % 69.5% 147 35.1% 74
3P % 35.2% 229 32.8% 255
2P % 46.0% 101 49.2% 169

This is a pure matchup of strength versus strength. The Bears are a much better offensive team, and the Wildcats are the better defensive team. Both teams are actually pretty evenly matched on both sides of the court, with the offensive/defensive matchups very close in most categories. In fact, both teams' offensive and defensive points per possession are within just a few ranks of each other. On paper, this is the most balanced matchup the Bears have seen this year.

The Bears excel offensively at hitting the 3-point shot, and that is the strength of the KSU defense. The Bears turn the ball over a bit too much, but KSU is just slightly above average at forcing turnovers. Kansas State is still very good at stopping 2-point shots, but not nearly as effective as they are at stopping 3-point shots, while Baylor shoots 2-points shots at an average rate.

When Kansas State has the ball, the Bears have the slightest edge statistically, besting the Wildcats in every category except for rebounds and turnovers. Kansas State is not a good shooting team, and they struggle to create offense outside of transition, a Thomas Gipson put-back, or Marcus Foster making something happen.

Keys to the Game

1. Make them shoot long jumpers – Kansas State is not a very good shooting team. The Wildcats don't shoot very well from anywhere on the court, but they especially struggle from behind the arc, making just 32.8% of their 3-pointers. They really have just three players that take 3-pointers with any consistency in Porter, Southwell and Spradling, but none make more than 39%. Foster is the best statistically this year, but Spradling has been much more accomplished throughout his career. In fact, 72% of Spradling's shots have been behind the arc this year. He is a gunner, pure and simple, and not a very effective one at that.

2. Attack the offensive glass – The Wildcats have been known the past few years as a very good rebounding team, but this year's squad has struggled at times securing rebounds on the defensive glass. They give up an offensive rebound 33.4% of the time, good for 237th in the country. That is not a very good mark. The Bears of course rebound at an elite rate on their offensive glass. Second chance points will be at a premium, and with the Wildcats smothering defense, there should be quite a few opportunities to grab extra possessions. The Bears can win this game shooting 40% of fewer, they just have to have a ton more chances to make sure of it.

3. Keep Porter in check – Point guards have absolutely killed the Bears the past few weeks. Baylor has given up 29, 21, 22, 24, 15, and 27 points to a lead guard on the opposition over their past 6 games. The only one under 20 points was Juwan Staten of West Virginia, and all he did was make the game-winner at the last second to beat the Bears. With Porter on a massive hot streak and the Bears defense getting abused by guards the past month, the Baylor defense will need a herculean effort to corral the freshman star.

Expect the Bears to trap the ball out of Porter's hands, as well as throw a bigger defender on him like Royce O'Neale if the Bears show a man defense. With the Wildcats struggles shooting the ball, I would seriously consider having O'Neale and Wainright out there with Heslip and play man defense. You can matchup Wainright on Wouthwell and Heslip on Spradling and let your best defensive player take on the main man for the Wildcats.

In the end though, be it from their zone or man defense, Marcus Porter is the one guy that can take over the game for KSU and beat the Bears single handily. Unfortunately for Baylor, they have struggled mightily when a guard has been given that responsibility.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Baylor wins 63-62 (56% chance for win)

Massey.com – Baylor wins 64-63 (51% chance for win)

RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 77-68

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Kansas State wins 67-65

This is a true toss-up game according to KenPom and Massey. The Bears are the lower ranked team across the board, but the home court advantage makes this a game that is pretty even statistically. However, the Bears have lost their last four home games after a 13-game home winning streak was ended against Oklahoma. This is a Bears team that has not seen the comforts of home play well for them in 2014. However, Kansas State has not been a very good road team this year, as they have lost their last 4 road games.

The big decider to me in this one is the play of Marcus Porter. He has been brilliant the past few games and the Bears have not been able to stop any even decent guard from putting up big numbers. If you think the Baylor defense can find something in the kitchen sink to slow down Porter, you probably think they will win. I don't, not until I see them even slow down a guard with good offensive capabilities.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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With all three of their forwards at 6-foot-7, the Wildcats do not have a ton of height. Backup post D.J. Johnson is their only player taller than 6-foot-7, and they have struggled at times with larger teams. However, their last two games have been against the two teams with as much height as the Bears, Texas and Kansas, and the Wildcats emerged with two big victories.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorKansas State
AP PollN/A 34
Coaches PollN/A 27
KenPom5431
Massey5734
Sagarin5127
RealTime RPI5630
RPI Forecast6137
ESPN RPI5330
ESPN BPI5740
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The Wildcats have risen steadily in the rankings all year, especially considering where they started from. With 3 starters gone, Kansas State was supposed to be down this year, but their two freshmen starters have given them a ton of quality minutes and help them stay on track. Right now, this is an NCAA tournament team, and one that has played very well recently, especially at home.

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The Stats

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The Bears dominate on the glass, while Kansas State is better than Baylor in terms of turnover percentages. Pure shooting and free throw rates favor the Bears slightly, but if you look at it in terms of just conference play, these teams are pretty even.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankKansas StateRank
KenPom Effeciency112.34093.214
Points Per Possession1.14240.9525
Effective FG %53.2%4844.3%18
Turnover %19.4%24519.6%108
Rebound %41.4%467.6%237
3P %40.7%1028.7%11
2P %49.1%17044.8%69
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When Kansas State has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankKansas StateRank
KenPom Effeciency100.392107.9106
Points Per Possession1.041751.05181
Effective FG %48.2%12949.2%216
Turnover %16.2%31318.1%157
Rebound %69.5%14735.1%74
3P %35.2%22932.8%255
2P %46.0%10149.2%169
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This is a pure matchup of strength versus strength. The Bears are a much better offensive team, and the Wildcats are the better defensive team. Both teams are actually pretty evenly matched on both sides of the court, with the offensive/defensive matchups very close in most categories. In fact, both teams' offensive and defensive points per possession are within just a few ranks of each other. On paper, this is the most balanced matchup the Bears have seen this year.

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The Bears excel offensively at hitting the 3-point shot, and that is the strength of the KSU defense. The Bears turn the ball over a bit too much, but KSU is just slightly above average at forcing turnovers. Kansas State is still very good at stopping 2-point shots, but not nearly as effective as they are at stopping 3-point shots, while Baylor shoots 2-points shots at an average rate.

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When Kansas State has the ball, the Bears have the slightest edge statistically, besting the Wildcats in every category except for rebounds and turnovers. Kansas State is not a good shooting team, and they struggle to create offense outside of transition, a Thomas Gipson put-back, or Marcus Foster making something happen.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Make them shoot long jumpers – Kansas State is not a very good shooting team. The Wildcats don't shoot very well from anywhere on the court, but they especially struggle from behind the arc, making just 32.8% of their 3-pointers. They really have just three players that take 3-pointers with any consistency in Porter, Southwell and Spradling, but none make more than 39%. Foster is the best statistically this year, but Spradling has been much more accomplished throughout his career. In fact, 72% of Spradling's shots have been behind the arc this year. He is a gunner, pure and simple, and not a very effective one at that.

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2. Attack the offensive glass – The Wildcats have been known the past few years as a very good rebounding team, but this year's squad has struggled at times securing rebounds on the defensive glass. They give up an offensive rebound 33.4% of the time, good for 237th in the country. That is not a very good mark. The Bears of course rebound at an elite rate on their offensive glass. Second chance points will be at a premium, and with the Wildcats smothering defense, there should be quite a few opportunities to grab extra possessions. The Bears can win this game shooting 40% of fewer, they just have to have a ton more chances to make sure of it.

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3. Keep Porter in check – Point guards have absolutely killed the Bears the past few weeks. Baylor has given up 29, 21, 22, 24, 15, and 27 points to a lead guard on the opposition over their past 6 games. The only one under 20 points was Juwan Staten of West Virginia, and all he did was make the game-winner at the last second to beat the Bears. With Porter on a massive hot streak and the Bears defense getting abused by guards the past month, the Baylor defense will need a herculean effort to corral the freshman star.

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Expect the Bears to trap the ball out of Porter's hands, as well as throw a bigger defender on him like Royce O'Neale if the Bears show a man defense. With the Wildcats struggles shooting the ball, I would seriously consider having O'Neale and Wainright out there with Heslip and play man defense. You can matchup Wainright on Wouthwell and Heslip on Spradling and let your best defensive player take on the main man for the Wildcats.

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In the end though, be it from their zone or man defense, Marcus Porter is the one guy that can take over the game for KSU and beat the Bears single handily. Unfortunately for Baylor, they have struggled mightily when a guard has been given that responsibility.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Baylor wins 63-62 (56% chance for win)

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Massey.com – Baylor wins 64-63 (51% chance for win)

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RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 77-68

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Kansas State wins 67-65

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This is a true toss-up game according to KenPom and Massey. The Bears are the lower ranked team across the board, but the home court advantage makes this a game that is pretty even statistically. However, the Bears have lost their last four home games after a 13-game home winning streak was ended against Oklahoma. This is a Bears team that has not seen the comforts of home play well for them in 2014. However, Kansas State has not been a very good road team this year, as they have lost their last 4 road games.

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The big decider to me in this one is the play of Marcus Porter. He has been brilliant the past few games and the Bears have not been able to stop any even decent guard from putting up big numbers. If you think the Baylor defense can find something in the kitchen sink to slow down Porter, you probably think they will win. I don't, not until I see them even slow down a guard with good offensive capabilities.

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Out of all of the numbers and previews provided here on the Baylor Bears, this is the number that shocks me the most. Baylor has not had a winning streak in 2014. They won games on December 30 and January 3, but since the calendar switched over to 2014, Baylor has not won back to back games. They have had a 5-game losing streak and a 2-game losing streak, but no left hand column ones. With the surging Kansas State Wildcats coming to town, the Bears will have their hands full trying to get the first of 2014.

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