Another Look at Iowa State

The Bears end their season series with Iowa State roughly 2 months since it began. With Baylor looking to get another victory to improve their NCAA resume, can the Cyclones avoid the upset?

With balanced schedules, sometimes you get quirks. Sometimes, you play the same team twice in 3 weeks, and other times, you see them at the very beginning and end of the conference season. The Bears opened their 2014 Big 12 conference slate with a trip to Ames, IA to visit Iowa State, and will finish their home schedule with that return trip from the Cyclones.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date March 4, 2014| 6:00 p.m. CT
Location Waco, TX
TV ESPN2
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Brady Heslip
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 - 5-11,180
#5- 6-2, 180
#00 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Iowa State Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
DeAndre Kane
Monte Morris
Melvin Ejim
Dustin Hogue
Georges Niang
#50 - 6-4, 200
#11 - 6-2, 170
#3 - 6-6, 220
#22 - 6-6, 215
#31 - 6-7, 240
Senior
Freshman
Senior
Junior
Sophomore

Both teams will have new starting shooting guards in the rematch, with Brady Heslip supplanting fellow senior Gary Franklin for Baylor and Monte Morris taking over for fellow freshman Matt Thomas for Iowa State. The rest of the lineup for both teams are the same, with minimal changes to the rotation overall.

The Cyclones are an athletic team with good size on the perimeter, but shorter post players. They play a physical man to man style defense that takes chances and tries force the opposition into tough shots. They don't get a lot of turnovers or blocks, but they challenge shots very well. Their front line is all 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7, anchored by Georg Niang. They like to switch quite a bit on screens and pick and rolls, and they do a solid job of staying in front of their man. With bigger guards like DeAndre Kane, switching doesn't put them in terrible mismatches and with Kane'e strength and size, he can battle down low a bit.

College Basketball

But make no mistake; this is an offensive minded team. The Cyclones want to out shoot you and out score you. They have the fastest tempo in the Big 12, with 72 possessions per game (compared to 64 per game for the Bears in conference play). Iowa State has three players averaging more than 16 points a game, led by possible Big 12 player of the year Melvin Ejim's 18 points. Ejim is a unique power forward in this league. He is a little undersized, but brings great athleticism and tenacity to the floor. He is a very good rebounder and a tremendous finisher in transition.

The main man getting the ball to Ejim is point guard DeAndre Kane, a senior transfer who has been the best newcomer in the Big 12. Averaging 16 points, almost 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game, Kane can dominate every aspect of the box score. His coming out party was a truly dominant effort against the Bears with 30 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists, and 5 steals.

Their third scorer is Georges Niang, who has a very nice jumper and can even extend past the 3-point line. He is a crafty interior player, who gets good rebounding position, but he is much more of a jump shooter. Outside of those three studs, the Cyclones have role players that can hit long shots in transition (Matt Thomas and Naz Long) or help them defensively (Dustin Hogue and Monte Morris). But this is a team with very little size, with just Niang at 6-foot-7.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Iowa State
AP Poll N/A 15
Coaches Poll 35 17
KenPom 38 26
Massey 42 15
Sagarin 33 13
RealTime RPI 43 11
RPI Forecast 45 12
ESPN RPI 42 11
ESPN BPI 48 14

When these two teams last saw each other, both were coming off of exceptional non-conference schedules that had them both in the Top 10 in the polls Those days are long gone for the Bears, but a 4-loss in five game stretch right after their win against Baylor took the Cyclones out of the Top 10 as well. Both teams have righted the ship, with ISU winning 4 straight before their loss at Kansas State this weekend. Overall, the Cyclones are easily a Top 15-20 team, while the Bears are still right on the bubble of the NCAA tournament.

The Stats

NCAA Basketball

Behind the strength of their 3-point shooting, the Bears effective field goal % has always been quite high. In the past, Iowa State has enjoyed that benefit, but the Cyclones are an average 3-point shooting team. In fact, when away from home, they are not very good. They shoot just 31.2% overall from behind the arc in Big 12 play. They can get hot though. The strength of the Cyclones excellent eFG % is their mid-range game and their ability to finish close to the basket.

The Cyclones also do an excellent job of protecting the ball, with the 7th lowest turnover rate in the country. Their role players do an excellent job of not turning it over, with Hogue, Morris, Thomas and Long all being among the best 105 players in college basketball at not turning it over. The Bears big advantage is on the offensive glass, where the Cyclones are just not a very good team. ISU does do a very good job at stopping offensive rebounding teams though, as they focus on getting the ball and then pushing it up the floor.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Iowa State Rank
KenPom Effeciency 115.3 17 97.1 47
Points Per Possession 1.14 23 0.99 61
Effective FG % 52.0% 82 46.3% 63
Turnover % 18.7% 207 16.3% 308
Rebound % 42.2% 3 71.1% 68
3P % 38.9% 28 32.9% 100
2P % 48.6% 197 44.7% 56

When Iowa State has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Iowa State Rank
KenPom Effeciency 100.5 89 114.2 28
Points Per Possession 1.04 170 1.13 35
Effective FG % 48.0% 117 53.5% 43
Turnover % 16.0% 316 14.0% 7
Rebound % 68.7% 188 27.8% 296
3P % 35.4% 242 33.7% 215
2P % 45.6% 81 55.4% 8

These are two very powerful offensive teams, when they are hitting their outside shots. Both Iowa State and Baylor have struggled with consistently hitting their 3-point shots, though the Bears have been better across the board at their high's and low's. These are two teams built on their offenses. The Baylor offense is significantly more patient and slower-paced however, but they are better on a per-possession look and are the stronger shooting team.

The Bears offense derives its value from 3-point shooting and offensive rebounds, while the Cyclones get their value from finishing around the rim and not turning the ball over. It is this ability to go at fast pace and still limit turnovers at a high level that drives the Cyclones offensive engine, and DeAndre Kane is the man behind the wheel.

Keys to the Game

1. Get those extra possessions – The Bears beat Texas Tech because they destroyed them on the offensive glass and got dozens of extra possessions. The game was closer than it should have been because the Bears couldn't convert much of anything in the 2nd half. Against the Cyclones, Baylor has to get those extra possessions, because they probably won't hold an offense as good as ISU's to just 49 points. This is going to take 70+ points to win this game, and with the Bears shooting woes, they are going to have to have a lot more cracks at the basket.

More than likely, the Bears will turn it over more than Iowa State, so the possessions will have to be found via the offensive rebound. Baylor has to crash hard and often on the offensive glass with their post players and small forward. If the Bears break 16 offensive rebounds, they should be in great shape.

2. Win the man-to-man battles – With the Cyclones quick passing attack and their propensity in the mid-range game, this might be a bad game for the zone defense. The Bears have started to show more man defense the past few games (at least before the Tech game) and it has been a key adjustment made in wins over West Virginia and Kansas State.

With the Cyclones offensive arsenal looking more much like those two teams, expect the Bears to show a man defense. The key will be whoever is asked to guard DeAndre Kane, the Cyclones best creator and shot maker. Royce O'Neale is a logical candidate, but don't overlook Kenny Chery who has played much better defense since overcoming his injuries a few weeks ago.

3. Bring the Intensity – The Bears have been up and down this year often due to their lack of intensity on the defensive end. They can sometimes let missed shots impact their effort and tenacity on the other end of the court, which limits them even more than their personnel at times. The Bears don't really have any good defenders at the guard position, which leaves them vulnerable against scoring guards (See Eron Harris, Javan Felix, Buddy Hield, Markel Brown, Kyan Anderson, etc). The Bears have struggled terribly against good offensive guards this year, and the best game against them might have been by Kane earlier this year.

Kane just destroyed the Bears defense in a half-court set or in the transition game (an underlying weakness of the Bears bigger lineups is their inability to get back quick enough). Can the Bears at least get in the way of Kane and company if their shots aren't falling? Baylor has to make sure they bring the intensity in their defense, be it man or zone, to make sure they don't lose a game they desperately need.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Baylor wins 75-73 (59% chance for Baylor win)

Massey.com – Baylor wins 77-76 (53% chance for Baylor win)

RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 85-78

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Bears win 77-75

This is a must win, at least in my eyes. The Bears cannot put all of their hopes on the final game of the year, especially when it is at Kansas State, a place the Wildcats are 15-1 at this season. No, the Bears have to win THIS game. They have to defend their home court, and leave everything they have in this one game. The Bears can do that, especially if they can hit shots against a defense that doesn't challenge shots down low. Expect the Bears to show up with some man defense, and try and trap the ball out of DeAndre Kane's hands as much as they can. The Bears get a big-time win and get one step closer to punching their ticket to the NCAA tournament.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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But make no mistake; this is an offensive minded team. The Cyclones want to out shoot you and out score you. They have the fastest tempo in the Big 12, with 72 possessions per game (compared to 64 per game for the Bears in conference play). Iowa State has three players averaging more than 16 points a game, led by possible Big 12 player of the year Melvin Ejim's 18 points. Ejim is a unique power forward in this league. He is a little undersized, but brings great athleticism and tenacity to the floor. He is a very good rebounder and a tremendous finisher in transition.

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The main man getting the ball to Ejim is point guard DeAndre Kane, a senior transfer who has been the best newcomer in the Big 12. Averaging 16 points, almost 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game, Kane can dominate every aspect of the box score. His coming out party was a truly dominant effort against the Bears with 30 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists, and 5 steals.

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Their third scorer is Georges Niang, who has a very nice jumper and can even extend past the 3-point line. He is a crafty interior player, who gets good rebounding position, but he is much more of a jump shooter. Outside of those three studs, the Cyclones have role players that can hit long shots in transition (Matt Thomas and Naz Long) or help them defensively (Dustin Hogue and Monte Morris). But this is a team with very little size, with just Niang at 6-foot-7.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorIowa State
AP PollN/A15
Coaches Poll3517
KenPom3826
Massey4215
Sagarin3313
RealTime RPI4311
RPI Forecast4512
ESPN RPI4211
ESPN BPI4814
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When these two teams last saw each other, both were coming off of exceptional non-conference schedules that had them both in the Top 10 in the polls Those days are long gone for the Bears, but a 4-loss in five game stretch right after their win against Baylor took the Cyclones out of the Top 10 as well. Both teams have righted the ship, with ISU winning 4 straight before their loss at Kansas State this weekend. Overall, the Cyclones are easily a Top 15-20 team, while the Bears are still right on the bubble of the NCAA tournament.

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The Stats

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Behind the strength of their 3-point shooting, the Bears effective field goal % has always been quite high. In the past, Iowa State has enjoyed that benefit, but the Cyclones are an average 3-point shooting team. In fact, when away from home, they are not very good. They shoot just 31.2% overall from behind the arc in Big 12 play. They can get hot though. The strength of the Cyclones excellent eFG % is their mid-range game and their ability to finish close to the basket.

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The Cyclones also do an excellent job of protecting the ball, with the 7th lowest turnover rate in the country. Their role players do an excellent job of not turning it over, with Hogue, Morris, Thomas and Long all being among the best 105 players in college basketball at not turning it over. The Bears big advantage is on the offensive glass, where the Cyclones are just not a very good team. ISU does do a very good job at stopping offensive rebounding teams though, as they focus on getting the ball and then pushing it up the floor.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankIowa StateRank
KenPom Effeciency115.31797.147
Points Per Possession1.14230.9961
Effective FG %52.0%8246.3%63
Turnover %18.7%20716.3%308
Rebound %42.2%371.1%68
3P %38.9%2832.9%100
2P %48.6%19744.7%56
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When Iowa State has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankIowa StateRank
KenPom Effeciency100.589114.228
Points Per Possession1.041701.1335
Effective FG %48.0%11753.5%43
Turnover %16.0%31614.0%7
Rebound %68.7%18827.8%296
3P %35.4%242\t33.7%215
2P %45.6%8155.4%8
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These are two very powerful offensive teams, when they are hitting their outside shots. Both Iowa State and Baylor have struggled with consistently hitting their 3-point shots, though the Bears have been better across the board at their high's and low's. These are two teams built on their offenses. The Baylor offense is significantly more patient and slower-paced however, but they are better on a per-possession look and are the stronger shooting team.

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The Bears offense derives its value from 3-point shooting and offensive rebounds, while the Cyclones get their value from finishing around the rim and not turning the ball over. It is this ability to go at fast pace and still limit turnovers at a high level that drives the Cyclones offensive engine, and DeAndre Kane is the man behind the wheel.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Get those extra possessions – The Bears beat Texas Tech because they destroyed them on the offensive glass and got dozens of extra possessions. The game was closer than it should have been because the Bears couldn't convert much of anything in the 2nd half. Against the Cyclones, Baylor has to get those extra possessions, because they probably won't hold an offense as good as ISU's to just 49 points. This is going to take 70+ points to win this game, and with the Bears shooting woes, they are going to have to have a lot more cracks at the basket.

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More than likely, the Bears will turn it over more than Iowa State, so the possessions will have to be found via the offensive rebound. Baylor has to crash hard and often on the offensive glass with their post players and small forward. If the Bears break 16 offensive rebounds, they should be in great shape.

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2. Win the man-to-man battles – With the Cyclones quick passing attack and their propensity in the mid-range game, this might be a bad game for the zone defense. The Bears have started to show more man defense the past few games (at least before the Tech game) and it has been a key adjustment made in wins over West Virginia and Kansas State.

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With the Cyclones offensive arsenal looking more much like those two teams, expect the Bears to show a man defense. The key will be whoever is asked to guard DeAndre Kane, the Cyclones best creator and shot maker. Royce O'Neale is a logical candidate, but don't overlook Kenny Chery who has played much better defense since overcoming his injuries a few weeks ago.

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3. Bring the Intensity – The Bears have been up and down this year often due to their lack of intensity on the defensive end. They can sometimes let missed shots impact their effort and tenacity on the other end of the court, which limits them even more than their personnel at times. The Bears don't really have any good defenders at the guard position, which leaves them vulnerable against scoring guards (See Eron Harris, Javan Felix, Buddy Hield, Markel Brown, Kyan Anderson, etc). The Bears have struggled terribly against good offensive guards this year, and the best game against them might have been by Kane earlier this year.

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Kane just destroyed the Bears defense in a half-court set or in the transition game (an underlying weakness of the Bears bigger lineups is their inability to get back quick enough). Can the Bears at least get in the way of Kane and company if their shots aren't falling? Baylor has to make sure they bring the intensity in their defense, be it man or zone, to make sure they don't lose a game they desperately need.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Baylor wins 75-73 (59% chance for Baylor win)

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Massey.com – Baylor wins 77-76 (53% chance for Baylor win)

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RealTime RPI – Baylor wins 85-78

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Bears win 77-75

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This is a must win, at least in my eyes. The Bears cannot put all of their hopes on the final game of the year, especially when it is at Kansas State, a place the Wildcats are 15-1 at this season. No, the Bears have to win THIS game. They have to defend their home court, and leave everything they have in this one game. The Bears can do that, especially if they can hit shots against a defense that doesn't challenge shots down low. Expect the Bears to show up with some man defense, and try and trap the ball out of DeAndre Kane's hands as much as they can. The Bears get a big-time win and get one step closer to punching their ticket to the NCAA tournament.

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With balanced schedules, sometimes you get quirks. Sometimes, you play the same team twice in 3 weeks, and other times, you see them at the very beginning and end of the conference season. The Bears opened their 2014 Big 12 conference slate with a trip to Ames, IA to visit Iowa State, and will finish their home schedule with that return trip from the Cyclones.

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