NCAA Tournament Preview - Nebraska

The Bears and Cornuskers meet up in San Antonio in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament. What does Baylor need to do to advance to the next round?

Baylor and Nebraska last met in 2011, a Baylor victory in Lincoln as that summer, the Cornhuskers moved to the Big 10. Since then, they have fired the Doc Sadler, and brought in a young up-and-comer in Tim Miles who has turned the program around and brought them back to the NCAA tournament.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Friday, March 21 | 11:40 p.m. CT
Location San Antonio, Texas; AT&T Center (17,731)
TV truTV
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Online Audio Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Brady Heslip
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 – 5-11, 180
#5 - 6-2, 180
#00 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Kansas State Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Tai Webster
Terran Petteway
Shavon Shields
David Rivers
Walter Pitchford
#0 – 6-4. 194
#5 – 6-6, 209
#31 – 6-7, 219
#2 – 6-7, 198
#35 – 6-10 234
Freshman
Sophomore
Sophomore
Junior
Sophomore

The Cornuskers have multiple lineups that they can throw out there, depending on the matchups. It seems their bigger lineup is the one listed above, with Petteway and Shields playing on the wing and backup big-man David Rivers getting the start. The other lineup they have has Petteway at the small forward position and Shields at power forward, and senior guard Ray Gallegos at the off-guard position. In fact, that lineup has received the most playing time together over the last 5 games, at just over 17%.

With the Bears size in the paint and wing, but smaller stature in the backcourt, Nebraska could go with either lineup. Gallegos is the much better shooter on the squad, making a team high 51 three-pointers, but Rivers gives them more size to combat the Bears on defense.

Whatever their starting lineup is, the Cornhuskers will use their bench quite a bit. Leslee Smith is their main post player off the bench, and is their best rebounder overall. He is a to 75 offensive rebounder when looking at percentage rates, and is a Top 200 guy on the defensive side. Whoever doesn't start out of Rivers or Gallegos will also play quite a bit along with backup point guard Benny Parker.

NCAA Basketball

Offensively, this is a 2-man team with Texas Tech transfer Terran Petteway and fellow sophomore Shavon Shields the only two players in double figures. They are similar players offensively, both good ball handlers and very good at getting into the lane. Shields is more suited down low offensively though, and Petteway is a solid 3-point shooter, making 34.3% of those shots. Walter Pitchford is their 3rd scoring option, but even as their tallest player, his offensive game is built around a good 3-point shot. He is a pure stretch post player at this point.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Nebraska
AP Poll 23 N/A
Coaches Poll 28 34
KenPom 31 45
Massey 26 51
Sagarin 29 55
RealTime RPI 28 49
RPI Forecast 30 48
ESPN RPI 30 49
ESPN BPI 34 58

The Bears have the advantage in every ranking, with their biggest advantage in the Massey and Sagarin rankings. Baylor is one again ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll and are receiving votes along with Nebraska in the coaches poll. Both teams have risen quite a bit in the last part of the season, as Baylor and Nebraska have both won 10 of their last 13 games.

The Stats

College Basketball

The Baylor Bears are the much better shooting and offensive rebounding team in this matchup. The Cornhuskers are not a very strong shooting team with just a 48.4% effective shooting rate (222nd in the nation). They are also a terrible offensive rebounding team, ranking 318th in offensive rebound percentage according to KenPom. The Cornhuskers do take care of the ball at a slightly better rate, with two high minute players in Gallegos and Pitchford as Top 25 players in the country in terms of Turnover rates. Both of these players are spot up shooters, to when they get the ball, it is more than likely going to be a safe pass or a jump shot.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Nebraska Rank
KenPom Effeciency 118.4 7 96.2 29
Points Per Possession 1.15 14 0.99 59
Effective FG % 52.3% 69 47.7% 104
Turnover % 18.1% 165 19.0% 134
Rebound % 41.6% 3 71.1% 66
3P % 39.0% 27 31.9% 61
2P % 49.0% 175 47.6% 156

When Nebraska has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Nebraska Rank
KenPom Effeciency 102.2 114 108.1 101
Points Per Possession 1.05 191 1.03 220
Effective FG % 48.4% 128 48.3% 237
Turnover % 16.0% 312 16.7% 69
Rebound % 67.5% 245 26.1% 324
3P % 36.3% 281 33.9% 196
2P % 45.4% 68 47.1% 254

The Bears offense and the Cornhuskers defense are by far the best units. The Bears had been on a ridiculous hot streak offensively, until the Big 12 championship game when tired legs might have hurt them. Nebraska has been on a similar streak defensively, holding 11 consecutive oppoents under 70 points until their loss to Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. In fact, out of those 11, they held 8 of them under 60 points.

The Bears have the advantage though in this matchup, winning 5 of the 7 categories on offense and 4 of the 7 on defense. Baylor is the better rebounding team, and has a significant at shooting 3-pointers on offense and defending 2-pointers on defense.

Keys to the Game

1. Minimize Catch and Shoot Chances – The Cornhuskers are at their best when one of their two wing players (Petteway or Shields) gets the ball in the paint and kicks it out for an open 3-pointer The Bears cannot let that happen too much. Nebraska has some very good catch and shoot guys, including center Walter Pitchford. Ray Gallegos, and Petteway are their main weapons from behind the arc. Baylor has to trust their interior defenders to challenge shots, as they have for the last month, and stay with the shooters.

2. Bang Down Low – Nebraska has some good size on the wings, but they really just have two post players in Pitchford and Smith. The other options that they have have down low are built more like wing players. Pitchford is not going to hurt the Bears down low offensively, but he is a good defensive rebounder. He is not a shot blocker at all and is a below average post defender. The Cornhuskers struggle to block a lot of shots (8.8% block %, 207th in the nation), with Leslie Smith being their only good post defender

With Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson and Rico Gathers all with capable low post games, the Bears have to attack down low and take advantage of offensive rebounds. There should be little challenge in terms of a rim protector for Nebraska, so those 2nd chance points should come a bit easier.

3. Win the man to man matchup – The Bears zone has struggled terribly when it has gotten stagnant and still. When the Bears don't challenge shots and use their length to get into passing lanes and make shots tougher, they are a really bad defense. In the recent run of success, the Bears zone has been very active and has challenged shots. With Austin improving as a rim protector, it has allowed guard Brady Heslip, Kenny Chery, and Gary Franklin the ability to play more up on shooters, and take more chances on the perimeter.

With those chances defensively, come turnovers, or open lanes for the offense to attack. The Cornhuskers are not a very effective passing team, assisting on just 42.7% of their made baskets (335th in the nation), so the Bears should have less to worry about in regards to ball movement. The Cornhuskers attack off the dribble and with picks and isolations. Baylor will have to make sure they win those one-on-one battles and beat their man.

On the flip-side, the Nebraska defense really trusts their guards and wings to challenge the ball handlers. This causes tough angles and difficult passes to post players. Baylor will have to able to beat NU off the dribble or create space with screens. Simply put, they have to beat the man in front of them.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Baylor wins 68-66 (59% chance for Baylor win)

Massey.com – Baylor wins 69-66 (61% chance for Baylor win)

RealTime RPI – Nebraska wins 70-69

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Bears win 69-64

The best way to beat a zone defense is with quick and sharp passing. Quite simply, Nebraska is not a good passing team in the traditional flow of an offense. They are extremely good at the kick-out pass, but they don't have a true point guard that can set everything up and destroy the zone with passing. Also, the Bears length inside should be able to challenge shots and allow the Bears defenders to stay with the Nebraska shooters.

Finally, the speed and style of this game should favor the Bears. Baylor wants to take their time, work their offense and take a good shot. Nebraska doesn't play as slow, but they are not a speed-up team either. Terran Petteway will be a challenge for the Bears to keep out of the paint, so he might continue the pattern of 2-guards scoring at will against the Bears. However, I just don't see the Huskers stopping a Bears offense that is playing as well as any in the nation. Bears win with a late run to get the lead for good after a back and forth first 30 minutes of action.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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Offensively, this is a 2-man team with Texas Tech transfer Terran Petteway and fellow sophomore Shavon Shields the only two players in double figures. They are similar players offensively, both good ball handlers and very good at getting into the lane. Shields is more suited down low offensively though, and Petteway is a solid 3-point shooter, making 34.3% of those shots. Walter Pitchford is their 3rd scoring option, but even as their tallest player, his offensive game is built around a good 3-point shot. He is a pure stretch post player at this point.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorNebraska
AP Poll23N/A
Coaches Poll2834
KenPom3145
Massey2651
Sagarin2955
RealTime RPI2849
RPI Forecast3048
ESPN RPI3049
ESPN BPI3458

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The Bears have the advantage in every ranking, with their biggest advantage in the Massey and Sagarin rankings. Baylor is one again ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll and are receiving votes along with Nebraska in the coaches poll. Both teams have risen quite a bit in the last part of the season, as Baylor and Nebraska have both won 10 of their last 13 games.

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The Stats

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The Baylor Bears are the much better shooting and offensive rebounding team in this matchup. The Cornhuskers are not a very strong shooting team with just a 48.4% effective shooting rate (222nd in the nation). They are also a terrible offensive rebounding team, ranking 318th in offensive rebound percentage according to KenPom. The Cornhuskers do take care of the ball at a slightly better rate, with two high minute players in Gallegos and Pitchford as Top 25 players in the country in terms of Turnover rates. Both of these players are spot up shooters, to when they get the ball, it is more than likely going to be a safe pass or a jump shot.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankNebraskaRank
KenPom Effeciency118.4796.229
Points Per Possession1.15140.9959
Effective FG %52.3%6947.7%104
Turnover %18.1%16519.0%134
Rebound %41.6%371.1%66
3P %39.0%2731.9%61
2P %49.0%17547.6%156
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When Nebraska has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankNebraskaRank
KenPom Effeciency102.2114108.1101
Points Per Possession1.051911.03220
Effective FG %48.4%12848.3%237
Turnover %16.0%31216.7%69
Rebound %67.5%24526.1%324
3P %36.3%28133.9%196
2P %45.4%6847.1%254
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The Bears offense and the Cornhuskers defense are by far the best units. The Bears had been on a ridiculous hot streak offensively, until the Big 12 championship game when tired legs might have hurt them. Nebraska has been on a similar streak defensively, holding 11 consecutive oppoents under 70 points until their loss to Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. In fact, out of those 11, they held 8 of them under 60 points.

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The Bears have the advantage though in this matchup, winning 5 of the 7 categories on offense and 4 of the 7 on defense. Baylor is the better rebounding team, and has a significant at shooting 3-pointers on offense and defending 2-pointers on defense.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Minimize Catch and Shoot Chances – The Cornhuskers are at their best when one of their two wing players (Petteway or Shields) gets the ball in the paint and kicks it out for an open 3-pointer The Bears cannot let that happen too much. Nebraska has some very good catch and shoot guys, including center Walter Pitchford. Ray Gallegos, and Petteway are their main weapons from behind the arc. Baylor has to trust their interior defenders to challenge shots, as they have for the last month, and stay with the shooters.

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2. Bang Down Low – Nebraska has some good size on the wings, but they really just have two post players in Pitchford and Smith. The other options that they have have down low are built more like wing players. Pitchford is not going to hurt the Bears down low offensively, but he is a good defensive rebounder. He is not a shot blocker at all and is a below average post defender. The Cornhuskers struggle to block a lot of shots (8.8% block %, 207th in the nation), with Leslie Smith being their only good post defender

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With Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson and Rico Gathers all with capable low post games, the Bears have to attack down low and take advantage of offensive rebounds. There should be little challenge in terms of a rim protector for Nebraska, so those 2nd chance points should come a bit easier.

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3. Win the man to man matchup – The Bears zone has struggled terribly when it has gotten stagnant and still. When the Bears don't challenge shots and use their length to get into passing lanes and make shots tougher, they are a really bad defense. In the recent run of success, the Bears zone has been very active and has challenged shots. With Austin improving as a rim protector, it has allowed guard Brady Heslip, Kenny Chery, and Gary Franklin the ability to play more up on shooters, and take more chances on the perimeter.

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With those chances defensively, come turnovers, or open lanes for the offense to attack. The Cornhuskers are not a very effective passing team, assisting on just 42.7% of their made baskets (335th in the nation), so the Bears should have less to worry about in regards to ball movement. The Cornhuskers attack off the dribble and with picks and isolations. Baylor will have to make sure they win those one-on-one battles and beat their man.

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On the flip-side, the Nebraska defense really trusts their guards and wings to challenge the ball handlers. This causes tough angles and difficult passes to post players. Baylor will have to able to beat NU off the dribble or create space with screens. Simply put, they have to beat the man in front of them.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Baylor wins 68-66 (59% chance for Baylor win)

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Massey.com – Baylor wins 69-66 (61% chance for Baylor win)

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RealTime RPI – Nebraska wins 70-69

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Bears win 69-64

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The best way to beat a zone defense is with quick and sharp passing. Quite simply, Nebraska is not a good passing team in the traditional flow of an offense. They are extremely good at the kick-out pass, but they don't have a true point guard that can set everything up and destroy the zone with passing. Also, the Bears length inside should be able to challenge shots and allow the Bears defenders to stay with the Nebraska shooters.

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Finally, the speed and style of this game should favor the Bears. Baylor wants to take their time, work their offense and take a good shot. Nebraska doesn't play as slow, but they are not a speed-up team either. Terran Petteway will be a challenge for the Bears to keep out of the paint, so he might continue the pattern of 2-guards scoring at will against the Bears. However, I just don't see the Huskers stopping a Bears offense that is playing as well as any in the nation. Bears win with a late run to get the lead for good after a back and forth first 30 minutes of action.

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Baylor and Nebraska last met in 2011, a Baylor victory in Lincoln as that summer, the Cornhuskers moved to the Big 10. Since then, they have fired the Doc Sadler, and brought in a young up-and-comer in Tim Miles who has turned the program around and brought them back to the NCAA tournament.

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