NCAA Tournament Preview - Creighton

In front of a hopefully partisan Baylor crowd, the 6th seed Baylor Bears take on the 3rd seed Creighton Bluejays and National Player of the Year Doug McDermott.

In the 3rd round of the NCAA tournament, the Baylor Bears will face off against the Creighton Bluejays for the right to advance to the Sweet 16. The past two years, the Bluejays have lost in the Round of 32, and fallen short of their first Sweet 16. Baylor on the other hand, is 2-0 in the third round in the past 3 years, advancing to the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012.

MEDIA INFORMATION
Date Friday, March 23 |6:40 p.m. CT
Location San Antonio, Texas; AT&T Center (17,731)
TV truTV
Radio ESPN Central Texas
Tournament Central Listen Online
Live Stats Gametracker
Twitter @BaylorMBB

The Matchups

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Baylor Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Kenny Chery
Brady Heslip
Royce O'Neale
Cory Jefferson
Isaiah Austin
#1 – 5-11, 180
#5 - 6-2, 180
#00 - 6-6, 220
#34 - 6-9, 220
#21 - 7-1, 225
Junior
Senior
Junior
Senior
Sophomore
Kansas State Starting Lineup
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
Austin Chapman
Jahennes Manigat
Grant Gibbs
Ethan Wragge
Doug McDermott
#1 – 6-0, 180
#12 – 6-1, 180
#10 – 6-5, 210
#34 – 6-7, 225
#3 – 6-8 225
Junior
Senior
Senior
Senior
Senior

These are two teams built in very different ways. The Bluejays are built on shooting, shooting and more shooting. They are a team full of Brady Heslips, and will shoot all over the court. The Bears are built around a dominant post game, with athletes down low and an all-around team concept. The Bluejays feature the best player in college basketball this year, who takes almost 40% of this teams shots when he is on the court, and dominates the box score.

The Bluejays are not a very big or physical team. They start two undersized guards, a good size wing player and slightly smaller than average post players. Against most teams, that isn't a big deal. Against a team with tremendous size at the forward and post spots like the Bears posses, it could be an issue.

NCAA Basketball Stats

What the two teams do have in common though is great offenses. The Bears are a Top 10 offense, especially the last 13 games. Creighton has been the best offense in college basketball all year long. Both teams also play at a more deliberate pace than most would assume, as Creighton is just 247th in tempo according to Kenpom, while the Bears are even slower at 325th.

Doug McDermott dominates their player chart, unlike any player the Bears have seen this year. He has 919 points on the year, with second place having 358. That is staggering. He is their only player that can get to the foul line with any regularity, and also is by far their best rebounder. Their guards are there to move the ball, and find the open man, and shoot open jumpers.

The Rankings

Rankings Baylor Creighton
AP Poll 23 16
Coaches Poll 28 16
KenPom 27 11
Massey 22 19
Sagarin 26 12
RealTime RPI 28 11
RPI Forecast 30 10
ESPN RPI 30 10
ESPN BPI 33 15

Creighton is universally rated higher than the Bears, in the RPI polls, analytical polls, and the human polls. They are a Top 15 team pretty much across the board. While the Bears sunk quite a bit courtesy of their 2-8 stretch to start Big 12 play, they have risen back into the Top 25.

The Stats

College Basketball Stats

You will not find any offense that shoots the ball better than the Creighton Bluejays from all over the court, and you will find few that turn the ball over as little as they do. That is a very good way to start a successful basketball. What the Bluejays don't do is hit the offensive glass. Not shocking, since their two post men are their best shooters, and why do you need to focus on offensive rebounds when most of the time, the defense is inbouding after your shots?

Creighton also shoots very few free throws, not to be unexpected from a tremendous jump shooting team. This is a tremendous offensive team, with weaknesses that make a lot of sense when you look at what they do.

When Baylor has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Creighton Rank
KenPom Effeciency 118.2 7 102.7 128
Points Per Possession 1.15 14 1.03 135
Effective FG % 52.1% 76 47.8% 105
Turnover % 18.1% >164 14.8% 343
Rebound % 41.3% 3 72.1% 35
3P % 38.6% 34 33.4% 128
2P % 49.1% 169 46.6% 107

When Creighton has the Ball
Statistic Baylor Rank Creighton Rank
KenPom Effeciency 101.3 98 124.6 1
Points Per Possession 1.04 162 1.21 1
Effective FG % 48.4% 128 59.3% 1
Turnover % 16.0% 312 15.0% 21
Rebound % 68.0% 218 27.9% 291
3P % 35.7% 265 42.0% 1
2P % 45.7% 77 56.3% 5

And what they do is make shots, better than any other team. They are #1 in 3-point shooting. #1 in Effective Field Goal Percentage. They are 1st in points per possession and 5th in 2-point field goal shooting %. Just look at that CHART! Wow. The only thing they don't do well is rebound the ball on the offensive glass, but why focus on that when you make over 50% of your shots.

This is a matchup of two of the most effective offenses in the country, with two defenses that try and do enough to get by. The Bears defense is quite a bit better than Creighton's, especially the last few weeks. Their zone defense forces more turnovers, tougher shots resulting in a much lower field goal %, and also is one of the best shot blocking units in the country. The only thing the Creighton defense does really well is rebound the ball. They don't give up a ton of 2nd chances.

Keys to the Game

1. Hope they miss – This is the best shooting team in the nation, by far. They shoot 3-pointers at a ridiculous 42% mark, which is 1.5% points better than the 2nd place team. They are also 5th in the nation on 2-point field goal percentage, making 56.3% of those shots. Seriously, this team is full of excellent shooters, led by National Player of the Year Doug McDermott (we will get to him more in a little bit).

Bears will have to work as hard as they have all year on defense, either in their zone or man look. Coach Scott Drew will more than likely come out in their traditional zone defense, but you can definitely expect some wrinkles and adjustments. The zone will probably look more like it did against Oklahoma, who also featured a perimeter oriented attack with some great shooting bigs. In the end though, the Bluejays are just a tremendous shooting team, with an offense that gets great looks. They will hit shots, covered or from far beyond the 3-point line. Sometimes you just have to hope they miss them.

The Bluejays only lost to 1 team twice this year, a Providence team that plays zone like the Bears do. In their first loss to Providence, Creighton shot just 4-19 from behind the arc. They were much more effective inside the arc, making 22-34 shots, but the Friars just don't have much size to challenge interior shots. The Bears do. Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson have to be active in the middle of the defense, and make those 2-point shots difficult.

2. Dougy McBuckets – There is a reason Doug McDermott won the National Player of the Year in college basketball this year. He is the most destructive offensive force in college basketball. He can score from anywhere on the floor. He takes 38.8% of all of the shots when he is on the court, but when you watch them, it never seems like he is forcing the action. He is simply the best offensive player in the nation, with a great 3-point shot, good handles, a very improved low post game featuring an array of turn around and fade-away jumpers, and good enough speed and athleticism to beat bigger defenders to the rim.

He will get his, no doubt. McDermett hasn't scored fewer than 22 points since January 25th, and only had 4 games all year where he hasn't hit 20 points. The choice that the Bears have to make is how to react to the other weapons around him. Some teams have just let McDermott have his, and force the other players to beat them. The Bluejays have excellent shooters around their star, led by fellow post Ethan Wragge who is a tremendous spot up shooter. All five of their starters shoot better than 39% from behind the arc. Wragge is the best of the bunch and leads the team in 3-pointers with 108 makes on the year.

Baylor will ride the zone for as long as they can, and try to limit the offensive possessions the Bluejays have, be it with their own slower offensive tempo, trying to protect the ball, and controlling the defensive glass.

3. Beat them inside – Look for the Bears gameplan to be very similar to the one they used against Nebraska on Friday morning. The Bluejays are undersized down low, with just McDermott at 6-foot-8, Ethan Wragge at 6-foot-7 and backup big man Will Artino at 6-foot-11 being their true post players. McDermott is a decent defender, but his main goal on defense is to simply not get in foul trouble. He does a great job of playing smart defense that keeps him on the court.

The Bluejays are one of the worst shot blocking teams in the country, getting their hands on just 3.9% of shots (3rd worst rate in the country). You can shoot over them and finish through them. They ride their starting five unit a ton, playing that group of 5-players 37% of the time over the last 5-games. Baylor's size and length in the post should be a huge factor in this game, and if they can somehow get the Bluejays post players in foul trouble, could put Creighton in a position they are not used to.

Predictions

KenPom.com – Creghton wins 74-72 (39% chance for Baylor win)

Massey.com – Creighton wins 73-71 (56% chance for Baylor win)

Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor win 75-71

If Creighton comes out shooting well and making three-pointers, there might not be a single team in the country that can keep up with them. They have the best offense in the country, able to beat you with the long ball, or superior ball movement and offensive sets designed to get a shot that they want. The Bluejays only made 9 three-pointers against Louisiana-Lafayette, but made 19-31 from inside the arc.

The Bears should be in front of a very loud pro-Baylor crowd, with the game just 3 hours from their Waco campus. With the Bears having a home crowd, and playing as well as any team in the country, give me the Bears. The zone has frustrated the Bluejays, especially when playing against another slow-paced offense. Baylor will have to limit turnovers, as Creighton will run on you a bit, though they are fine pulling it up and setting up their offense (just like Baylor). Brady Heslip hits more than 5 three-pointers, the Bears dominate on the inside, the they let Doug McDermott get his while shutting down everyone else to advance to their 3rd Sweet 16 in five years.


Bears Illustrated Top Stories

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What the two teams do have in common though is great offenses. The Bears are a Top 10 offense, especially the last 13 games. Creighton has been the best offense in college basketball all year long. Both teams also play at a more deliberate pace than most would assume, as Creighton is just 247th in tempo according to Kenpom, while the Bears are even slower at 325th.

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Doug McDermott dominates their player chart, unlike any player the Bears have seen this year. He has 919 points on the year, with second place having 358. That is staggering. He is their only player that can get to the foul line with any regularity, and also is by far their best rebounder. Their guards are there to move the ball, and find the open man, and shoot open jumpers.

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The Rankings

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RankingsBaylorCreighton
AP Poll2316
Coaches Poll2816
KenPom2711
Massey2219
Sagarin2612
RealTime RPI2811
RPI Forecast3010
ESPN RPI3010
ESPN BPI3315
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Creighton is universally rated higher than the Bears, in the RPI polls, analytical polls, and the human polls. They are a Top 15 team pretty much across the board. While the Bears sunk quite a bit courtesy of their 2-8 stretch to start Big 12 play, they have risen back into the Top 25.

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The Stats

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You will not find any offense that shoots the ball better than the Creighton Bluejays from all over the court, and you will find few that turn the ball over as little as they do. That is a very good way to start a successful basketball. What the Bluejays don't do is hit the offensive glass. Not shocking, since their two post men are their best shooters, and why do you need to focus on offensive rebounds when most of the time, the defense is inbouding after your shots?

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Creighton also shoots very few free throws, not to be unexpected from a tremendous jump shooting team. This is a tremendous offensive team, with weaknesses that make a lot of sense when you look at what they do.

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When Baylor has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankCreightonRank
KenPom Effeciency118.27102.7128
Points Per Possession1.15141.03135
Effective FG %52.1%7647.8%105
Turnover %18.1%>16414.8%343
Rebound %41.3%372.1%35
3P %38.6%3433.4%128
2P %49.1%16946.6%107
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When Creighton has the Ball
StatisticBaylorRankCreightonRank
KenPom Effeciency101.398124.61
Points Per Possession1.041621.211
Effective FG %48.4%12859.3%1
Turnover %16.0%31215.0%21
Rebound %68.0%21827.9%291
3P %35.7%26542.0%1
2P %45.7%7756.3%5
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And what they do is make shots, better than any other team. They are #1 in 3-point shooting. #1 in Effective Field Goal Percentage. They are 1st in points per possession and 5th in 2-point field goal shooting %. Just look at that CHART! Wow. The only thing they don't do well is rebound the ball on the offensive glass, but why focus on that when you make over 50% of your shots.

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This is a matchup of two of the most effective offenses in the country, with two defenses that try and do enough to get by. The Bears defense is quite a bit better than Creighton's, especially the last few weeks. Their zone defense forces more turnovers, tougher shots resulting in a much lower field goal %, and also is one of the best shot blocking units in the country. The only thing the Creighton defense does really well is rebound the ball. They don't give up a ton of 2nd chances.

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Keys to the Game

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1. Hope they miss – This is the best shooting team in the nation, by far. They shoot 3-pointers at a ridiculous 42% mark, which is 1.5% points better than the 2nd place team. They are also 5th in the nation on 2-point field goal percentage, making 56.3% of those shots. Seriously, this team is full of excellent shooters, led by National Player of the Year Doug McDermott (we will get to him more in a little bit).

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Bears will have to work as hard as they have all year on defense, either in their zone or man look. Coach Scott Drew will more than likely come out in their traditional zone defense, but you can definitely expect some wrinkles and adjustments. The zone will probably look more like it did against Oklahoma, who also featured a perimeter oriented attack with some great shooting bigs. In the end though, the Bluejays are just a tremendous shooting team, with an offense that gets great looks. They will hit shots, covered or from far beyond the 3-point line. Sometimes you just have to hope they miss them.

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The Bluejays only lost to 1 team twice this year, a Providence team that plays zone like the Bears do. In their first loss to Providence, Creighton shot just 4-19 from behind the arc. They were much more effective inside the arc, making 22-34 shots, but the Friars just don't have much size to challenge interior shots. The Bears do. Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson have to be active in the middle of the defense, and make those 2-point shots difficult.

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2. Dougy McBuckets – There is a reason Doug McDermott won the National Player of the Year in college basketball this year. He is the most destructive offensive force in college basketball. He can score from anywhere on the floor. He takes 38.8% of all of the shots when he is on the court, but when you watch them, it never seems like he is forcing the action. He is simply the best offensive player in the nation, with a great 3-point shot, good handles, a very improved low post game featuring an array of turn around and fade-away jumpers, and good enough speed and athleticism to beat bigger defenders to the rim.

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He will get his, no doubt. McDermett hasn't scored fewer than 22 points since January 25th, and only had 4 games all year where he hasn't hit 20 points. The choice that the Bears have to make is how to react to the other weapons around him. Some teams have just let McDermott have his, and force the other players to beat them. The Bluejays have excellent shooters around their star, led by fellow post Ethan Wragge who is a tremendous spot up shooter. All five of their starters shoot better than 39% from behind the arc. Wragge is the best of the bunch and leads the team in 3-pointers with 108 makes on the year.

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Baylor will ride the zone for as long as they can, and try to limit the offensive possessions the Bluejays have, be it with their own slower offensive tempo, trying to protect the ball, and controlling the defensive glass.

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3. Beat them inside – Look for the Bears gameplan to be very similar to the one they used against Nebraska on Friday morning. The Bluejays are undersized down low, with just McDermott at 6-foot-8, Ethan Wragge at 6-foot-7 and backup big man Will Artino at 6-foot-11 being their true post players. McDermott is a decent defender, but his main goal on defense is to simply not get in foul trouble. He does a great job of playing smart defense that keeps him on the court.

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The Bluejays are one of the worst shot blocking teams in the country, getting their hands on just 3.9% of shots (3rd worst rate in the country). You can shoot over them and finish through them. They ride their starting five unit a ton, playing that group of 5-players 37% of the time over the last 5-games. Baylor's size and length in the post should be a huge factor in this game, and if they can somehow get the Bluejays post players in foul trouble, could put Creighton in a position they are not used to.

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Predictions

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KenPom.com – Creghton wins 74-72 (39% chance for Baylor win)

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Massey.com – Creighton wins 73-71 (56% chance for Baylor win)

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Tim Watkins BearsIllustrated.com Writer– Baylor win 75-71

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If Creighton comes out shooting well and making three-pointers, there might not be a single team in the country that can keep up with them. They have the best offense in the country, able to beat you with the long ball, or superior ball movement and offensive sets designed to get a shot that they want. The Bluejays only made 9 three-pointers against Louisiana-Lafayette, but made 19-31 from inside the arc.

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The Bears should be in front of a very loud pro-Baylor crowd, with the game just 3 hours from their Waco campus. With the Bears having a home crowd, and playing as well as any team in the country, give me the Bears. The zone has frustrated the Bluejays, especially when playing against another slow-paced offense. Baylor will have to limit turnovers, as Creighton will run on you a bit, though they are fine pulling it up and setting up their offense (just like Baylor). Brady Heslip hits more than 5 three-pointers, the Bears dominate on the inside, the they let Doug McDermott get his while shutting down everyone else to advance to their 3rd Sweet 16 in five years.

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In the 3 round of the NCAA tournament, the Baylor Bears will face off against the Creighton Bluejays for the right to advance to the Sweet 16. The past two years, the Bluejays have lost in the Round of 32, and fallen short of their first Sweet 16. Baylor on the other hand, is 2-0 in the third round in the past 3 years, advancing to the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012.

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