BearsIllustrated Roundtable 11/21

A simple question with a very complicated answer. Will the Bears make the College Football Playoff if they play well and win out.

The question - If the Bears play well and win out, will they be in the College Football playoff?

Elliott Coffey - BearsIllustrated Contributor

Baylor just needs to win, things will take its course in our favor. Think back to December of last year holding our breath to see if we would win the Big 12. We beat Texas, and everything fell into place. We win out, we're above reproach. We do, however, need to win in fashion. Win big, win out. We make it the playoff.

James Holloway - BearsIllustrated Contributor

I'm assuming that this is under the assumption that Miss St. and tOSU also win out, if that is the correct assumption then I am going have to say no. It seems clear to me that the Selection Committee does not want Baylor in the playoff, which is why they put an Ohio State team with a worse resume in front of the Bears. If the Selection Committee can't have two $EC teams in, then they are going to put Ohio State in over us. Whether it is a bias for the $EC or historical blue bloods, or a bias against up-and-coming Baylor, or they just want to tap into a greater market, I don't know; but it seems that unless Ohio State and Mississippi State both lose, the Bears are gonna be left out of the playoff.

Shehan Jeyarajah - BearsIllustrated Contributor, Lariat Sports Editor, DMN Baylor Blogger

A few weeks ago, I had ultimate faith that Baylor would find a way into the College Football Playoff if they were deserving. At this point, I'm not so sure. The committee clearly has begun to put a premium on teams that are not the most deserving, but would rather look at pure strength of schedule. It's really starting to look like the committee thinks TCU and Ohio State are better than Baylor because Minnesota, which is completely nonsensical. Without any faith at the committee to give Baylor the benefit of the doubt, I can't in good faith say I believe Baylor can play their way in. At least Mississippi State and Ohio State have to lose for Baylor to get in.

Chase Medina - BearsIllustrated Contributor

If this question had been posed last week, I would have said yes. That was until the committee put Ohio State above us and kept TCU ahead of us as well. It’s obvious to me that Minnesota was kept at number 25 (after a loss at home) to justify those moves, which is another issue all together. I think the TCU thing should take care of itself if we win out because of the head to head, but Ohio State is another story. I don’t see any team left on the Buckeyes schedule that will beat them. That means that if we win out and they win out, and the committee already thinks they are better, they will stay ahead of us. My issue is that the committee’s main argument (besides the vaunted Gophers) about Baylor/TCU is that their bodies of work aren’t equal yet. Well if you compare Baylor and Ohio State the same thing is true. Baylor’s body of work is better than OSU’s. Baylor beat #5 TCU and #21 Oklahoma and lost to a good WVU team on the road. Ohio State beat #11 Michigan State and #25 Minnesota and lost to an average Virginia Tech team AT HOME. Any logical person looking at that would put Baylor ahead and that’s without comparing the conferences. This all seams like the committee is positioning themselves to not have to deal with the Baylor/TCU issue they have created.

I think they would rather not have a Big 12 team in the playoff than deal with that issue. I haven’t mentioned Mississippi State because I don’t believe the committee wants to have a division runner-up in ahead of a Power 5 conference champion. But, if the Bulldogs beat #8 Ole’ Miss then that theory could be challenged. And obviously, if chaos ensues who knows what will happen. But sadly, the only way that Baylor gets in now is with some help. I really hope I’m wrong though.

Ryan Resch - BearsIllustrated Contributor

Like Chase, I am concerned about the machine that is Ohio State being ranked ahead of us now. That said, the question must be more specific than if we just win out. If we win out and demolish every team from Saturday until K-State, I think we make it in. If we struggle in any of our remaining games, I think the committee has enough incentive to leave us out. My final prediction, though, is that we make it in. I'm not sure why I am overly optimistic, but I feel like the Big 12 may reverse course and champion us in the end, now that TCU is arguably even further on the periphery.

Tim Watkins - BearsIllustrated Co-Owner, Publisher

I would never bet on this committee to put the Bears into the 4-team playoff if they have a choice. They have made it clear that they prefer teams the Bears have beaten, or teams in larger markets and with bigger names that have a worse resume. My bet is on chaos. Chaos wins, almost every single year. There are always people screaming that THIS is the year that there will be so many undefeated or 1-loss teams. It rarely ever is. The Bears simply need 3 teams to fall, one of which should probably be TCU at the end of the year.

If the Bears win out, I do think that they will pass two teams. The third will be tricky. Smart money says that two of Alabama *Auburn, SEC Champ game), Florida State (really anyone), Ohio State (Wisconsin in Big 10 championship game), Oregon (Pac 12 championship game), TCU(Texas)or Mississippi State (Ole Miss) will lose. The Bears simply need 3 of those teams to lose. That is it. So yes, if the Bears win out and play well, I think that chaos will again win and the Bears will get in.

Matt Wilson - BearsIllustrated Contributor

Oof mcgoof. This is a tough question. I've tried as hard as possible to remain emotionally unattached to the results from the playoff committee, but I guess you guys are going to force me to become involved.

With the rankings appearing to be as subjective as ever, I don't see Baylor getting enough respect to get in the playoff after beating Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. I just think Baylor's schedule is so disrespected and the schedules of others are so overvalued that it makes it tough.

That being said, if a couple teams in front of Baylor look average we might have an opening. If Baylor can go out the next three games and perform exceptionally, specifically on the defensive side (while maintaining offensive production), it might be enough sway to cop the 4th spot in the playoff.

So in conclusion, winning out will probably not be enough. It will take some help from higher ranked teams looking pedestrian, as well as a DOMINANT result against all three of Baylor's remaining games.

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