The facts and nothing else. No spin, no analysis. What do the stats tell us about this matchup. I will get most of these stats from FootballOutsiders.com, which you can find their explanations and definitions on their site.
As the weeks go on, these stats will get better, more in-tune with realty and more granular when it comes to the offense/defense metrics. Simply put, FO.com doesn't have the data points yet to do the offense/defense stats that take into account run and pass attacks. They will, and will add them in a few weeks.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
To say the step up to Oklahoma State is a big one is underplaying it. The Bears will play a legitimately good team Saturday evening after playing three teams that are a combined 2-7. Rice is ranked 122nd in the Football Outsiders F+ combined ranking, while SMU is 100th. Northwestern State is a bad FCS team. The Cowboys are worst case a top-40 caliber team, and maybe even better than just that.
The Cowboys bring an explosive passing attack to the field, based on the talents of Mason Rudolph and James Washington. Mike Gundy and staff have always had strong offenses and an opportunistic defense.
|F/+ Combined Rank||22||37|
|Special Teams S&P+||60||8|
Baylor Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
The Cowboys defense has struggled against complicated passing offenses, especially those that utilize play-action and hit multiple depths of the field. This is the Baylor offense in a nutshell, just at an extremely fast tempo. The Cowboys have been stouter against the run, but they were gashed for 290 yards, three touchdowns and over 5.3 yards per carry last week against Pittsburgh.
This is by far the best defense the Bears will have seen in 2016, but that is still not saying much. The Cowboys are an aggressive defense that gets sacks (8- 33rd in nation), tackles for loss (30 - 7th in nation) and forces turnovers (7- 14th most in nation), but they will get beat deep and hit for big gains through the ground or the air.
|Yards Per Pass||6.94||8.17|
|Yards Per Rush||5.57||3.47|
|Yards Per Play||6.17||5.39|
|Yards Per Game||557.33||382.66|
|Plays Per Game||90.33||71|
|3rd Down %||40.74% (22-54)||28.89% (13-45)|
|4th Down %||80.00% (8-10)||40% (2-5)|
|Redzone %||78.95% (15-19)||83.33% (5-6)|
Baylor Defense vs. Oklahoma State Offense
Make no mistake, this is a very powerful OSU offense. They spread the ball out wide, and will pass it to multiple receivers, led by All-American Candidate James Washington who is averaging over 20 yards per catch. While their passing attack is one of the best in the nation, the downfall for the Pokes the past season and change has been a lack of a running game threat. They were able to run the ball better against Pittsburgh, but are still averaging barely over 3-yards per carry(117th in nation), and don't even get 100 yards on the ground per game.
The Baylor defense has excelled against one-dimensional offenses in the past, and their new 3-4 defense with much more speed is setup to take on an aerial attack like OSU. The Cowboys don't have a traditional power-running threat, which bodes well for the Bears front-7.
|Yards Per Pass||3.23||8.65|
|Yards Per Rush||3.81||3.06|
|Yards Per Play||3.56||6.22|
|Yards Per Game||249.33||458.33|
|Plays Per Game||70||73.66|
|3rd Down %||24% (12-50)||34.21% (13-38)|
|4th Down %||100% (1-1)||50% (1-2)|
|Redzone %||75% (6-8)||86.67% (13-15)|