Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5: Baylor at ISU Stats Preview

The Baylor Bears hit the road for the second time in two weeks to travel north and take on the Iowa State Cyclones. What do the stats say about this matchup?

The facts and nothing else.  No spin, no analysis.  What do the stats tell us about this matchup.  I will get most of these stats from FootballOutsiders.com, which you can find their explanations and definitions on their site.  

As the weeks go on, these stats will get better, more in-tune with realty and more granular when it comes to the offense/defense metrics.  Simply put, FO.com doesn't have the data points yet to do the offense/defense stats that take into account run and pass attacks.  They will, and will add them in a few weeks. 

Baylor vs. Iowa State 

After finally facing a legitimate opponent last week in Oklahoma State, the Bears once again go back to the bottom of the college football rankings, taking on an Iowa State team that is just 1-3 on the season and in the bottom 1/3rd of most of these metrics.  The lone bright spot for the Cyclones is a very good special teams unit, led by solid coverage, a good punter in Colin Downing, a good kicker in Cole Netten, and a dangerous return duo of Kene Nwangu (27.71 yards per kickoff) and Trever Ryen (26 yards per punt return). Outside of that, this is a poor offense and defense. 


2016 2016
F/+ Combined Rank 15 97
S&P+ 12 85
FEI 21 115
Special Teams S&P+ 69 22
Defensive S&P+ 13 82
Offensive S&P+ 33 83
RealTime RPI 12 122
Massey Rankins 13 88

Baylor Offense vs. Iowa State Defense

The Cyclones defense has done well against the pass through 4-games, allowing just 6.54 per pass attempt.  They held TCU to just 252 yards passing and a 132.77 passer rating with just 1 touchdown.  Unfortunately, teams have not needed to pass on ISU to get big gains, as that same TCU offense ran for 229 yards and 6.19 per carry on their way to four touchdowns.  

The Cyclones defense is one that gives up small chunks of yards consistently.  They don't allow the big play, but are incredibly easy to get the yards you need against.  They are also very poor in the redzone and getting off the field. As you can see, their rush defense is just awful when it comes to success rate (120th), meaning when it is 3rd and 3, they usually give up 4.  

S&P+ Off/Def 33 83
Yards Per Pass 8.25 6.54
Passer Rating 153.81 123.73
Yards Per Rush 5.20 4.70
Yards Per Play 6.53 5.44
Yards Per Game 548.75 403.75
Plays Per Game 84 74.25
3rd Down % 402.42% (28-66) 36.21% (21-58)
4th Down % 66.67% (8-12) 100% (5-5)
Scoring 42.0 29.5
Redzone % 76.19% (16-21) 88.24 (15-17)
Explosiveness 1.38 (32nd) 1.11 (24th)
Efficiency 46% (38th) 45.9% (110th)
Finishing Drives 4.94 (59th) 5.36 (100th)
Rushing Success Rate 44.8% (53rd) 49.6% (120th)
Passing Success Rate 47.5% (30th) 41.0% (72nd)
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.4% (44th) 50.9% (108th)
Passing Down Sack Rate 2.2% (15th) 7.3% (68th)

Baylor Defense vs. Iowa State Offense

The Cyclones try to run a balanced attack, one that uses play-action quite a bit.  Too bad that their running game has taken a huge step backwards this year.  They have struggled to succeed and set themselves up for 3rd and short way too often, something that they simply have to do to keep drives alive.  This is an offense that has few big play threats, so they need dependable, which they have not been getting enough of. 

One big thing to watch is the Cyclones offensive line has been AWFUL at protecting their quarterbacks on obvious passing downs. This plays into the strength of the Bears defense, so we could see a 3rd down defense that looks more like the Rice game (loading up on Zero Blitzes) rather than Oklahoma State (playing more coverage).  

S&P+ Def/Off 13 82
Yards Per Pass 4.19 7.45
Passer Rating 74.40 135.58
Yards Per Rush 3.83 3.61
Yards Per Play 3.99 5.45
Yards Per Game 310 364
Plays Per Game 77.75 66.75
3rd Down % 34.29% (24-70) 35.59% (21-59)
4th Down % 60.00% (3-5) 57.14% (4-7)
Scoring 13.5 21.8
Redzone % 66.67% (10-15) 100% (10-10)
Explosiveness 1.03 (4th) 1.25 (77th)
Efficiency 35.7% (24th) 38.7% (101st)
Finishing Drives 2.84 (4th) 4.83 (68th)
Rushing Success Rate 38.6% (47th) 40.9% (80th)
Passing Success Rate 32.5% (19th) 37.0% (96th)
Standard Downs Success Rate 38.8% (22nd) 46.9% (74th)
Passing Down Sack Rate 10.2% (40th) 11.9% (105th)


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