Revivalry is back, at least kind of. This is not the marquee match up it has been the past two season. The 6-1 Baylor Bears are without their head coach and the architect of their program, Art Briles. Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have lost four games this year already, more than they have the two previous seasons combined. Even weirder, their downfall has been on the defensive side of the ball, the long-time strength of the program.
Without Trevone Boykin's excellence at quarterback, the offense has also taken a step back and has had major issues finding dependable play makers on the outside to give Kyle Hicks and their running game more room. Both Baylor and TCU lost close games against in-state conference rivals this past week, with TCU losing at home in overtime to Texas Tech and the Bears falling by 1 point down in Austin. The Bears conference championship goals are still in their control and can still be seen on the horizon, while the Horned Frogs are simply looking to become bowl eligible this year.
TCU has lost three of their last four games, including home games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Throw in a 24-point loss to West Virginia on the road and it has been an awful October that saw a single victory, a 1-point win over last place Kansas in Fort Worth. The fall has been sudden for the Frogs as their offense has lost their big-play ability and their run defense has taken a step back.
|Football Outsiders - TCU Ranks||2015||2016|
|Defensive Rushing S&P+||39||63|
|Points Per Game||42.1||34.4|
|Points Allowed Per Game||27.2||30.1|
These haven't been drastic falls, but just many little issues all piling up. They have lost two games in overtime (41-38 at home against Arkansas, and 27-24 at home against Texas Tech), along with a 6-point loss to Oklahoma. TCU is not getting destroyed, but they are simply not doing enough to win the close games. They are just 1-3 in games decided by 1 score, with their other three wins coming by an average of 23 points. Those three wins are against SMU, South Dakota State and Iowa State; ie the softer portion of their schedule.
TCU has won the four games they absolutely should have won, lost to two average teams in Texas Tech and Arkansas (59th and 56th in S&P), and lost to two top-25 teams in Oklahoma and West Virginia (11 and 25). The Bears are ranked 18th, and with the game in Waco, Baylor is a 7.5 point favorite.
13/13 BAYLOR (6-1, 3-1) vs. NR/NR TCU (4-4, 2-3)
Nov. 5, 2016 | 2:30 p.m. CT
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- Baylor and TCU will meet for the 112th time. The all-time series is tied 52-52-7.
- BU holds a 34-30-5 edge when the series is in Waco and has won 3 of the last 5 meetings overall.
- Baylor is 14-2 in the $266 million McLane Stadium, with an average scoring margin of +27.0 points.
- Baylor has the nation’s 3rd-best home record since 2011 at 33-3, which is also best in the Big 12.
- Baylor is 21-6 vs. in-state schools over last 5+ seasons and has won 14 of last 17 vs. Texas foes.
- Baylor is outscoring foes 116-57 in the 2nd-halves of 2016’s first 7 games and has allowed 9 points in the 4th quarter.
- Ten of the Horned Frogs’ 12 regular-season games this season are in Texas.
- TCU is 33-12 in regular-season games following a loss under head coach Gary Patterson
- Patterson is 21-18 against ranked opponents, including a 7-5 mark over the last three seasons.
- TCU is 12-9 on the road in its Big 12 history.
Quick Look at TCU
- Location:Fort Worth, Texas
- Founded: 1873
- Enrollment: 10,323
- Colors: Purple and White
- Nickname: Horned Frogs
- Conference: Big 12
- Stadium: Amon G. Carter (45,000)
- Surface: Natural Grass
- Total Starters Returning/Lost: 13/14
- Offensive Starters Returning/Lost: 5/8
- Defensive Starters Returning/Lost: 7/4
- Specialist Starters Returning/Lost: 1/2
- Head Coach: Gary Patterson
- Alma Mater: Kansas State ‘83
- Record at TCU (years):143-47 (15)
- Overall Record (years): 143-47 (15)
- All-Time Record: 627-531-57
- 2015 Overall Record: 11-2
- Conference Record/Finish:7-2 (T-2nd in Big 12)
- Final Ranking (AP/Amway USA Today): 7/7
- Basic Offense: Spread
- Basic Defense: 4-2-5
What Happened Last Time
In less of a football game, and more of a battle of wills, the TCU Horned Frogs defeated Baylor 28-21 in double overtime. With both teams battered and bruised and the weather making the field almost unplayable after the first quarter, the Frogs capitilazied on key Baylor mistakes to get to overtime and then made the plays to win it. TCU staring quarterback, Trevone Boykin, was severely limited by an ankle injury while the Bears were down to their third string quarterback in Chris Johnson, as Seth Russell (neck) and Jarrett Stidham (foot) were both held out of the game.
During regulation, there were 19 punts, 4 turnovers and two drives ended by the end of the half. Just 203 total yards combined by the two teams in the second half without a single point being scored. Only one time did either team get within their opponents 30-yard line, and that drive ended in a Chris Johnson fumble.
As the Bears attempted a 4th and 1 in the second overtime, the TCU defense bowed up and held Devin Chafin for no gain, ending the Bears hopes for a Big 12 title and sending them to second loss of the 2015 season.