RealTimeRPI - Baylor wins 40-25
Massey - Baylor wins 38-28 (79% chance for win)
Vegas Implied - Baylor wins 37-30
Football Outsiders S&P+ - 35-25 (72% chance for win)
Tim Watkins, BearsIllustrated.com - Bears win 42-35
Baylor and TCU don't like each other. That is a fact. Though the loss of Art Briles for the Bears might have tempered some of the hatred that those in purple have for the green and gold, that hatred is still there. This is a pure rivalry game, and in those, weird things happen. I expect weird Saturday afternoon. I expect to be surprised by something that I simply don't see coming. It will happen.
TCU has one strength that could cause issues for the Bears offense; their pass rush. The Texas Longhorns were able to get to Seth Russell 6-times last week, more than he had been sacked in the previous 6-games combined. TCU is tied with Texas to lead the Big 12 in sacks, led by Josh Carraway, who is probably the Big 12 defensive player of the year right now.
The Bears offensive line will need to play much better in the passing game to give Seth Russell and his receivers time, and to give Russell the throwing lanes he didn't have against Texas. If the Bears do have time, they should be able to pass the ball against a secondary that has been destroyed this year.
Offensively, TCU might be the most well-rounded unit they have faced off against in 2016, right there with Texas. They have a good running game, and at times, a great passing attack. Forcing Kenny Hill into rushed or hurried decision, and making him pass on the move will be a key to a Baylor victory.
I think the Bears force enough turnovers against TCU late to get a close win, with Seth Russell bouncing back and Ishmael Zamora having a big-time game in the win.
Kevin Barrera, BearsIllustrated.com - Bears win 42-31
This game will define the way the rest of the season goes for the Bears. With all of the distractions this team has dealt with, they had no lost a game. Well that ended last Saturday and now the noise has become louder. The good thing for Baylor is TCU has become a big rivalry, so it shouldn't be difficult for the players to get up for this game.
For this game, though, plain and simply put, TCU is not very good. Their offense has begun to sputter out and Kenny Hill was benched for Foster Sawyer last week. I expect Hill to get the start so it will be imperative for Baylor to force bad mistakes cause Hill will commit them. On offense, Baylor just needs to run the ball. Terrence Williams gashed the Longhorn defense and TCU's rush defense might be worse than Texas.
Just stay true to yourself and you should come out with a victory.